Senator Bill Frist's Top Ten Races

VOLPAC | March 19, 2004 | Bill Frist

[CPT Clay]

The Senate races are now in high gear and it is time for us all to focus. Jack Ryan won the Primary in Illinois last night, and we have a real shot there. As we saw in Colorado, things are still in flux, but I thought I'd give you my take on 10 Senate races that I hope you have at the top of the radar screen. Print this out for future reference. VOLPAC will be taking a position on these races as we get through the Primaries. We are strongly supporting all of the Republican incumbents right now.

1. Alaska (R - incumbent)

Lisa Murkowski (R) - (incumbent) vs. Tony Knowles (D) - (former Governor)

Recent polling shows it’s a dead heat. Murkowski’s challenge is to overcome the nepotism allegations (Her dad preceded her as Senator) by becoming a credible US Senator in her own right. This race is critical to us.

2. Colorado (R - open)

Many considering, including . . .

Jane Norton (R) – (current Lieutenant Governor); Bob Schaffer (R) – (former congressman); Rutt Bridges (D) - challenger (self funding founder of liberal think tank); Congressman Mark Udall (D)

Primary date: August 10

Senator Ben Campbell’s retirement makes this a competitive race. Neither Republican nor Democrat candidate is certain at this point. Dems have a multi-millionaire candidate. Colorado leans Republican but it could be a swing state in the Presidential race.

3. South Dakota (D - challenger)

John Thune (R) - (former Congressman and 2002 Senate nominee) vs. Senator Tom Daschle (D)

This is the national race of the year. It’s a dead heat. Daschle has spent nearly $1 million on television since last April in South Dakota and can’t move his ballot number past 50%. This race will remain close, within the margin of error, through Election Day.

4. North Carolina (D - open)

Congressman Richard Burr (R) vs. Erskine Bowles (D) - (2002 Senate nominee and former COS to Bill Clinton)

This race remains within the margin of error. Bowles’ record is Bill Clinton’s record which is unpopular in NC. Bowles has the ability to self fund. He spent $7 million of his own money to lose to Elizabeth Dole in 2002. Burr is among the hardest working candidates running for the Senate this cycle.

5. South Carolina (D - open)

David Beasley (R) - (former Governor); Congressman Jim DeMint (R); Charlie Condon (R) - (former Attorney General); Inez Tenenbaum (D) - (State Superintendent of Education)

Primary date: June 8

Expect Beasley and DeMint to face-off in the run-off. Beasley has a lead today because of name ID and DeMint is well organized and well funded to be competitive in the run-off. Tenenbaum will be competitive but will be hard pressed to compete with the giant Republican turnout for President Bush on Election Day.

6. Georgia (D - open)

Congressman Johnny Isakson (R); Congressman Mac Collins (R); Herman Cain (R - Godfathers Pizza owner); State Senator Mary Squires (D); State Senator Nadine Thomas(D)

Primary date: July 20

This should be a pick-up for Republicans. Democrats have struggled to recruit anyone to run given increasing Republican dominance in Georgia. President Bush won Georgia handily (55 percent to 43 percent) in 2000 and the state has become even more Republican since then.

7. Florida (D - open)

Secretary Mel Martinez (R); Bill McCollum (R) - (former Congressman and 2000 Senate nominee); Johnny Byrd (R) - (Speaker of the State House); Daniel Webster (R) - (State Senate leader); Bob Smith (R) - (former US Senator from NH); Betty Castor (D) - (former President of the University of Southern Florida); Congressman Peter Deutsch (D); Mayor Alex Panelas (D) - (Mayor of Miami-Dade)

Primary date: August 31

The Republican Primary race is proving to be competitive with McCollum leading in public polling because of name ID, but Martinez is moving up. The Democrat Primary race is dominated by Deutsch’s money and Castor’s populist appeal. In the end Deutsch’s money will out last Castor’s appeal.

8. Oklahoma (R - open)

Kirk Humphreys (R) - (former Mayor of OK City, endorsed by Senators Inhofe and Nickles); Tom Coburn (R) - (physician and former member of Congress); Congressman Brad Carson (D) - Likely Democrat nominee

Primary date: July 27, run-off in August.

Republican Primary battle is expected to be bloody. The Democrats have high hopes for a pick-up in OK but the cards are stacked against them as the President will win OK by over 15 points.

9. Louisiana (D - open)

Congressman David Vitter (R) - (anointed candidate); John Kennedy (D) - (State Treasurer); Congressman Chris John (D)

It’s likely that no single candidate will get to 50% on Election Day. Thus, we’re preparing for a run-off in December. Vitter leads in the three-way ballot today and Vitter is leading Kennedy. Kennedy was expected to be the favored Democrat candidate in the style of John Breaux but so far has not cleared the field.

10. Washington (D - challenger)

Congressman George Nethercutt (R) vs. Senator Patty Murray (D)

Another big one. Patty Murray’s re-elect has slipped to 39% and we consider it to be the lowest of any Democrat incumbent running in the country. Nethercutt has assembled an A-team to run his campaign. Murray’s image as “Mom in tennis shoes” has disappeared and she is left to defend an anti-military, anti-tax cuts and anti-Washington voting record.

Please return to the first paragraph of this email and let me know your specific interests.

I will email tomorrow and Friday as well.

Bill Frist

[CPT Clay]

Your thoughts and comments.

[CPT Clay]

Could you get this to Campaign Central for Me?

[deport]

Congressman David Vitter (R) - (anointed candidate);

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Interesting choice of words by Sen. Frist.....

(anointed candidate);

[cynicom]

Surprised Frist is even interested in who gets elected.

[CPT Clay]

It is intersting. To tell you the truth, I didn't even notice that little tidbit.
I was kind of shocked that Alaska was First priority.

[deport]

What is VOLPAC? I'm assuming it's a Tennessee Volunteer Pac of the Republican Party, but couldn't find it on the net... Do you have a link? This also sounds like an internal email to the staff of that group......

PKM.... any knowledge of VOLPAC?

[CPT Clay]

Senator Bill Frist This is where it came from.

[SMGFan]

If Bush can discourage ticket splitters, the GOP should win every one of these states in which Bush wins. (A pretty obvious observation I must admit.)

[rrrod]

good point...frist as a leader tho has been as much of a wimp as lott. what troubles me is the closer we get to the election the more frist and other senators will pretend to grow a back bone..after the elelction they will roll over for the RATS..again

[WFTR]

Because Louisiana doesn't have a real primary as most states do, we sometimes "anoint" candidates in the hopes of avoiding a repeat of '91 when the runoff was between Edwin Edwards, the previous Democrat governor and known crook, and David Duke, a registered Republican and KKK leader. If Louisiana Republicans had "anointed" someone in that race, Duke wouldn't have made the runoff. Unfortunately, splitting the votes among several good Republicans allowed Duke into the runoff. "Anoint" is an awkward way of saying it, but it communicates the strange situation in Louisiana.

Ready for a Repeat
Bill

[CPT Clay]

Bump

[Kuksool]

Ts a shame that the GOP is apparently writing off the CA and NV Senate races. I would have loved to have a Boxer Rebellion in CA.

[deport]

Yes I understand how Louisiana's primary works, but I'm just surprised at Frist's use of the word 'anoint' indicating selection by the Party Gurus.. Duke has made comments about entering this time but not very likely....

[CPT Clay]

I agree, however, being that CA will be so expensive($50 million+) and Nevada will have a second tier candidate, you can see that it probably doesn't make the the top ten in priorities.

[WOSG]

thanx for the bump, Cpt.

It is encouraging to see: Washington State mentioned.

They should also mention Illinois. I think Ryan could Obama.

He doesnt mention it, BUT TOOMEY SHOULD BEAT SPECTER! This is like a 1/2 seat pickup.

[CPT Clay]

I agree, it burns me up to read the RNSC to promote Spector. Maybe I'll send some $ to Toomey.

[CPT Clay]

Would love to here your comments.

[NYCVirago]

Recent polling shows it’s a dead heat. Murkowski’s challenge is to overcome the nepotism allegations (Her dad preceded her as Senator) by becoming a credible US Senator in her own right. This race is critical to us.

I think the nepotism allegations are a little more than just "allegations." After all, not only did she succeed her father as senator, but he as governor appointed her to the position!

[CPT Clay]

She is also a good legislator in her own right.

[Tax-chick]

8. Oklahoma (R - open)

Kirk Humphreys (R) - (former Mayor of OK City, endorsed by Senators Inhofe and Nickles); Tom Coburn (R) - (physician and former member of Congress); Congressman Brad Carson (D) - Likely Democrat nominee

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Brad Carson is a dweeby little lawyer from north of Tulsa. It's hard to believe he could be elected to the Senate. This suggests that the Dems aren't trying very hard.