Analysts now doubt group's claim for Madrid bombing

World Tribune ^ | 3-19-04

[truthandlife]

LONDON – Western intelligence analysts doubt the credibility of a purported Al Qaida group that has threatened new attacks in Europe.

Yigal Carmon, president of the Washington-based Middle East Media Research Institute and counter-terrorism adviser to three prime ministers, said the Abu Hafs statement does not represent Al Qaida.

"The text of this statement includes linguistic usages and concepts that are incompatible with or alien to authentic Al Qaida writings by Osama Bin Laden, Dr. Ayman Al Zawahiri, and others," Carmon wrote in an analysis.

The analysts said the Abu Hafs Al Masri Brigade appears to be a fictitiou organization that could represent part of Al Qaida's psychological warfare campaign against the West. They said Abu Hafs has taken responsibility for non-existent attacks and that its communiques don't bear Al Qaida's imprint.

Abu Hafs has claimed responsibility for the Madrid train bombings on March 11 in which 202 people were killed. On Thursday, the London-based Al Quds Al Arabi daily released another statement by Abu Hafs that warned of additional attacks.

"Our brigades are getting ready now for the coming strike," Abu Hafs said in a statement dated March 15. "Whose turn will it be next? Is it Japan, America, Italy, Britain, Saudi Arabia or Australia?"

Western intelligence agencies have assessed that the Madrid train bombings were the work of Al Qaida-inspired insurgency groups from Morocco. Officials said they have determined a link between the strikes in Madrid and the suicide bombings in Casablanca in May 2003.

Abu Hafs has claimed responsibility for the November 2003 suicide attacks in Istanbul as well as an earlier bombing of United Nations headquarters in Baghdad. But the analysts said those suspected of carrying out the Istanbul attacks did not report any link to Abu Hafs, the communiques of which have also been signed "Al Qaida."

The analysts said the most puzzling aspect of Abu Hafs was its offer to end Al Qaida attacks in Europe. Abu Hafs said it was suspending attacks in Spain to allow its new socialist government to honor a pledge to withdraw from Iraq. Abu Hafs said it also supports the re-election campaign of President George Bush.

"We change and destroy countries," the statement said. "We even influence the international economy, and this is God's blessing to us."

On Thursday, Abu Hafs posted a purported Al Qaida statement on an Islamic website that pledged to avenge the killing of Khaled Ali Haj in Riyad on Monday. Ali Haj was identified as Al Qaida's operations chief for the Gulf region and responsible for suicide strikes on foreign compounds in Riyad during 2003.

The Abu Hafs warnings were among a plethora of statements purportedly by Al Qaida cells posted on Islamic websites over the last few months. In December 2003, Global Islamic Media warned of an imminent Islamic attack on the United States called Operation Cave of Darkness. In a departure from Al Qaida's previous communiques, the website demanded the return of gold to Islamic insurgents and the restoration of borders of Arab and Islamic states.

Another Islamic website, www.khayma.com., predicted the collapse of the United States. But the style of the communique was determined as being different from Al Qaida statements and most intelligence analysts dismissed the warning as fraudulent.

Meanwhile, a European Commission report criticized implementation of European Union agreements to battle insurgency groups and called for a database of criminal records on insurgents throughout the continent. The report also called on EU states to honor orders to seize bank assets of Al Qaida-inspired insurgents.

"It is essential in the fight against terrorism for the relevant services to have the fullest and most up-to-date information possible in their respective fields, including information on convictions," the report said.

[danneskjold]

Does this mean Spain will get to re-vote?

[Post Toasties]

Yigal Carmon, president of the Washington-based Middle East Media Research Institute and counter-terrorism adviser to three prime ministers, said the Abu Hafs statement does not represent Al Qaida.

"The text of this statement includes linguistic usages and concepts that are incompatible with or alien to authentic Al Qaida writings by Osama Bin Laden, Dr. Ayman Al Zawahiri, and others," Carmon wrote in an analysis.

Possibly, but if this is the strongest argument for believing that there are no ties between Al Qaeda and the Madrid bombings, it sounds weak because isn't Al Qaeda supposed to be largely decentralized?

[wayoverontheright]

Who had the most to gain from these bombings? How about Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and his minions?

First, remote detonation simply isn't al-Qaida's signature, there was secular involvement here. Secondly, al-Qaida still hasn't acknowledged involvement in 9-11, why this one and why so rapidly?

This looks like a frame up to me, since when did Socialists not consider their own citizens to be expendable to achieve their grand vision?

[Post Toasties]

Why would Spain want to give up its unique status of having surrendered to as few as a dozen Islamic nutcases?

The French are probably breathing sighs of relief, hoping they won't be the butt of the craven cowardice jokes any more.

[livius]

That's true - there have been no indications of suicide bombers in this (one of the reasons it was first believed to have been ETA, which never blows up its own members).


Also, one alleged communique was found after an anonymous phone call several hours after the event told police they could find it someplace (a trash can, if I recall correctly) between a mosque and an abandoned factory. This is not AQ's style.

[Restorer]

The problem with your theory is that the conventional wisdom, right up through the election, was that the attacks would result in a larger majority for the party in power.

None of the pundits really predicted a Socialist victory as a result of the attacks, which blows a great big hole in their potential motive.

Also, you need to remember that Socialists (in America called liberals) are not Communists. They are squeamish Communists. If they were not squeamish, they would be hard left, not soft left like Tony Blair. That's why Socialists normally get eaten alive by real Commies, who are not even the slightest bit squeamish, in factional fighting.

As a rule, squeamish people do not kill 200 civilians for some nebulous possible political benefit.

[daviddennis]

A nice point, and I was thinking along the same lines.

That being said, I think the analyst's point is that the offer for a "cease-fire" only applies to their specific group, not Al Quaida as a whole. This makes it effectively meaningless.

The group as a whole is unlikely to heed a message unless it's shown to come from one of the well-known AQ bigwigs, such as Osama. The issues they raise are relevent because they indicate that this group's ideology is different from AQ, and therefore other AQ cells are unlikely to respond.

D

[truthandlife]

I wonder if radical Democrats in this country are getting any ideas from this? I would not put it past them for an October surprise.

[Dog Gone]

Abu Hafs said it also supports the re-election campaign of President George Bush.

Proof that this group likes to send prank notes.

[Atlas Sneezed]

The analysts said the Abu Hafs Al Masri Brigade appears to be a fictitiou organization that could represent part of Al Qaida's psychological warfare campaign against the West. They said Abu Hafs has taken responsibility for non-existent attacks and that its communiques don't bear Al Qaida's imprint.

---

Wow! These brilliant "analysts" figured out the same loons who claimed credit for the 2003 US East Cost power blackout might not be responsible for this either?

Thank heaven for experts!

[MizSterious]

The "trash can" find has always bothered me. If someone wanted a videotape to be found and taken seriously, would it be logical to choose a trash can?? What if it had just been carried off with the rest of the rubbish?

[CyberAnt]

I think it means Aznar was correct and Spain's stupid liberals have been visited with a hoax.

[wayoverontheright]

Looks like someone is attempting to hide something, check this out....http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1101255/posts

[Paradox]

I am far from a tin-foiler, in fact, I think the vast majority of them are cranks. So I wont buy the idea that the Socialists set this thing off. However, I would entertain the thought that post bombing, knowing that an ETA link would strenghten Aznars position, they might have posted the fake Al-Q letter..

[Rocky]

"Abu Hafs said it also supports the re-election campaign of President George Bush. "

Why would Al Queda say this? Just to embarrass Bush? Who would believe that Al Queda supports Bush? No one in Al Queda could seriously believe that this would carry any credibility.

Maybe someone else is involved. Maybe the Spanish socialists? Their leader comes out for Kerry, so the terrorists come out for Bush to distance themselves from Zapatero?

[HenryLeeII]

Does this mean Spain will get to re-vote?

I'll call up Al Gore, I'm sure he'll want to get right on this...

[elli1]

The tape was found on a Saturday--unlikely that trash is picked up on a weekend. And, it would be easy to learn the pick-up schedule anyway.

[nathanbedford]

You and this article raise serious questions. I think we should await the verdict of forensic evidence, if the FBI can produce something.

A another question is raised here: The problem of splinter freelancers. And this raises the danger for the socialists in places like France who believe they can somehow manage the threat through negotiation or appeasement while simultaneously undermining America. They cannot be sure they will have cut their deal with the right bunch of Islamo-crazies. They will find that they cannot buy peace because they make the business of terror profitable, both politically and financially.

We have learned that we cannot win the war against drugs if we cannot eliminate demand merely by attacking supply. The Socialists have just created demand;I am afraid they have unwittingly let the genie out and infinitly prolonged the war.

[wayoverontheright]

The problem with your theory is that the conventional wisdom, right up through the election, was that the attacks would result in a larger majority for the party in power.

Obviously, the conventional wisdom wasn't very wise.

I don't think it is a leap to conclude that Zapatero's minions could have believed completely that a terror attack, followed by an immediate acknowledgement by al-Qaida that not only it was them, but the act was perpetrated precisely because of their leadership's stubborn collaboration with Americans, would give them a chance to win. Remember, they were behind, and nothing short of some calamity befalling the leadership would have accomplished a victory for the Socialists.