Bush Takes Back The Lead As 'Primary Effect' Wanes (Good News!)

Investor Business Daily ^ | March 13 2004 | NA

[Dog]

President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest.

The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader.

In a two-way race Bush leads Kerry 46% to 43%.

A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds.

now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest.

Bush's lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerry's lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bush's lead widened to 18 points from 13.

In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points.

"The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner.

Now, after Democratic candidates' months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said.

The president's ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution.

Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."

In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same.

In a two-candidate race, where Bush has a 46%-43% lead, 10% are undecided.

In a three-way race, Bush's lead expands by 2 percentage points – 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%.

Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush.

"Nader is clearly an asset for the president," said Mayur.

The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error plus/minus 3.4 percentage points.

[Owen]

The absolute numbers do not matter a great deal because we have no idea which of the many polls is actually doing an accurate, predictive sample. But if they all hold their methodologies constant, then the trends do tell us things, and in this case they tell us good things.

The battleground states are what matter. We can lose the election the same way Gore did if we don't win the battlegrounds. Because of the shift in EVs, we could trade PA for FL and still win, but neither of those are certain.

Seems to me a shift of several thousand military personnel from Texas to FL before the FL vote registration date may be a good thing.

[MEG33]

If you read the whole sentence it says among 743 registered voters.I know how fickle the public is this far before the election but with the polls all showing Bush behind or even..I'll take a nice positive Bush poll!

[Pharmer]

horse-race among the Democrats.

I know its getting old around here but I prefer the term "horse face" when talking about the Democratic candidate! :)

[Alas Babylon!]

Several thousand military personnel remain citizens of the states they are from and vote in those states, not in Texas or Florida if stationed there.

[cajungirl]

Contrarian here,,THe ads did not do this, Kerry did it. I think his performance last week from secretive support from unnamed foreign leaders to calling Bush a liar and a crook turned off the middle. It cheered his base but is repugnant. Our ads didn't do a damn thing,,they are weak, hard to watch and really poor quality if you ask me. I think Bush has to just stay out there, not be drawn in by Kerry and Kerry will whip himself.

[libsrscum]

Woof!

[Alas Babylon!]

If you read the whole sentence it says among 743 registered voters.I know how fickle the public is this far before the election but with the polls all showing Bush behind or even.

Yes, but what is different about this poll is how it is demographically/geographically broken down. The election will really be 50 separate elections in November, so seeing trends in blocks of states or individual states give a clearer picture of how things are shaping up.

[onyx]

SMILE while you yawn! That is an order! :)

[Owen]

>
Several thousand military personnel remain citizens of the states they are from and vote in those states, not in Texas or Florida if stationed there.
>

You're mostly wrong, but partly right because I picked Texas and should have picked California. No, military people *do* have the right of changing their state of residency to wherever they live, and can maintain that new selected residency as long as they are in the military. A person in the military can call themselves residents of anywhere they lived -- though there is usually some time limit (meaning a 2 week TDY won't qualify).

So most in the military wait until they are stationed in TX or FL and then call that state home the rest of their career, because of no state income tax.

I said move from TX to FL and there'd be no advantage to moving the state of residency, so we'd need to move some troops from Calif or other states out of reach or safe, to FL, to add to our vote totals.

[Viking2002]

Oh, you knew that the public's fascination with the Horsefaced One would simmer down after Super Tuesday. And now that his pro-Commie, anti-American proclivities are being aired out in the breeze, expect this margin to hold, if not get bigger.

[The Brush]

I have this mental picture of pollsters asking the same people who they support this week. I can't imagine there are people who actually flip-flop their alliance from week to week depending on a sound bite or the current economic news.
I guess that's why the divorce rate is over 50% in this country, people are short on convictions and too eager to run if they sense anything bad "may" happen.
If we had this mindset in 1944 we'd all be speaking Japanese today.

[thoughtomator]

I have been telling people this a while now... this election is going to be Reagan-Mondale, unless the Dems toss Kerry at the convention.

[OldFriend]

3/11 put the lie to Kerry's statement that the terror threat has been exaggerated by the President.

[Just Another Lurker]

[Pharmer]

The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters

Cool!! Dems usualy poll better among this type of sample whereas Pubbies fair better as the sample is pared down to "likely voters" This is not a weekend poll though. If this was shown on a weekend poll I would be in rapture! I am encouraged by this poll even though I want more data.

[Alas Babylon!]

While what you say is technically true, my 22 years experience (I am retired USAF) is that most military folks keep voting in their home of record. I married a Florida girl so I did switch to Florida, but I'm originially from New Hampshire which doesn't have an income tax either.

[Carolinamom]

Bless you, Dog, for posting this!

[Irish Eyes]

You can't have health care .....if we are all dead from a terrorist attack.

Powerful statement,... very good thinking.

[Owen]

Very good, sir. I was an Air Force officer who spent a lot of years waiting to get stationed in either FL or TX and it never happened. I paid state tax my whole career, but I do know those who wind up in TX or FL almost always switch their residency.

So, heads up Rumsfeld, those Navy facilities in Jax and the range at Eglin AFB need more troops! And please check the registration laws on residency requirements to ensure you don't move them and their families pointlessly.