Bush Takes Back The Lead As 'Primary Effect' Wanes (Good News!)

Investor Business Daily ^ | March 13 2004 | NA

[Dog]

President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest.

The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader.

In a two-way race Bush leads Kerry 46% to 43%.

A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds.

now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest.

Bush's lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerry's lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bush's lead widened to 18 points from 13.

In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points.

"The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner.

Now, after Democratic candidates' months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said.

The president's ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution.

Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."

In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same.

In a two-candidate race, where Bush has a 46%-43% lead, 10% are undecided.

In a three-way race, Bush's lead expands by 2 percentage points – 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%.

Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush.

"Nader is clearly an asset for the president," said Mayur.

The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error plus/minus 3.4 percentage points.

[bogdanPolska12]

Great post Dog. You made my day.

[bluegrass]

bless you

[MEG33]

This is a great antidote for the "I voted for George Bush but cannot do it again" because of(name single issue)call ins to CSPAN!

[firewalk]

Why believe this on over the ones that showed Kerry ahead.

Why not? I like to smile (-:

Bush should pay no mind to the polls and campaign like the Dems are going to manufacture a lot of votes in close states.

I'm sure that after the 2000 elections, President Bush & his team aren't taking anything for granted...

[VOA]

But let's not get too confident (or too over-heated) too early.

Let's make sure this trend peaks on the first Tuesday in November.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

You can't have an economy either. As a matter of fact, if John Kerry and his "traitor" Democrat Party is elected, you won't have to worry about education, healthcare, social security, the economy, etc. because there will no longer be a USA. If the American voters had any brains they would destroy this current Democrat Party at the polls this coming November 2nd!

[Pharmer]

3 days ago when KQQL posted the results of the NBC/WSJ poll and compared to the most recent CNNUSATODAYGallup poll and ABC Wash post poll, I posted these comments:

If you ask me the polling methods suck. Weekend polling, high MOE with variable results from poll to poll.

If anything this goes to show you that these polls are BS made to generate meaningless hype for Kerry. There is no way that any self respecting American in the wake of 9/11 is going to support that boring, monotoned, horse-2-faced, "war hero" phony.

I am a greater patriot than he is because I was 2 months to young to get a draft card, didn't go to Vietnam, got no medals, didn't come home and want to be a politician, didn't throw my medals in the face of my former commanders, and call my former comrades pilagers of the kind seen by Ghengis Khan.

This is a bunch of BS. I don't care how "angry" the left is. end rant

Although this is good news, need more data, consistant data. If Bush is smart he needs to solicite "unsolicited soft money " ads from third parties now as he will need to use his cash for the 60 day blitz between the September convention and the election as CFR rules will be in effect then. Bush does this and stays the course with a few of his own upbeat "inappropriate" ads, he will bury Kerry and we will be treated to the schadenfreude of watching the media and the left go nuts (I hope)!

[Ragirl]

This is good news, but polls can be wrong too. Hopefully, the more John F Kerry implodes and shows the people who he REALLY is, they will realize he isn't presidential material. September 11 changed everything and I think the bombings in Spain have been a reminder of that for people. John Kerry Ketchupboy saying the terror threat has been exaggerated really rings hollow now. Kerry Sucks!

[Hebrews 11:6]

I'm going to dig out my old BUSH/Cheney yard sign and start putting it out, only on weekends for now.

However, I live in California, so I'm afraid it's ultimately fruitless electorally, however satisfying emotionally it will be. But, you never know....

[Miss Marple]

Thanks, Dog!! There have been too many downer articles posted lately. This makes me feel better about the people as a whole.

[FranklinsTower]

We'll take a pounding right after the dem's national convention & rebound from that too.

Normally I'd agree with this, but this is not a normal year. The way things are shaping up, the dims convention is going to be fiasco. I have read that they are having major money and organization problems in regard to the convention. Add to that, the possibility the dims decide to make a switch. If that happens, I have no idea what the polls will look like.

[Brad’s Gramma]

Speaking of Bush, speaking of Flipper....check out this thread...



http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1097045/posts

[ConservativeMan55]

Bump!

[Vigilanteman]

The key sign of confidence among J.F***ing Kerry supporters will be if he has the confidence to resign his senate seat. Bob Dole did as a matter of character, a quality lacking in Kerry. But while the media took Dole's resignation for granted, Kerry will be praised for such unusual character and confidence if he actually does resign. My bet it that it will not happen.

J. F***ing K. should never be referred to as JFK or JFK II. J.F. Kennedy has his faults, but at least his patriotism was genuine.

[onyx]

GOOD NEWS brought to us by Dog.

[bayourod]

"I expect that the numbers will improve more as the terrible reminder in Spain ..."

It will be interesting to see what impact the Spainish bombings have on the Spanish elections today.

If the pro-Iraq war, tough-line anti-terrorists politicians do better than expected, it will show the world that terrorism isn't effective in democracies. If the opposite happens, then we can expect major attacks in every country the week of elections, including the US. That may be our "October surprise."

[shield]

Bush will win by a large margin, kerry has too much trash in his voting record.

[Magnolia]

...they are having major money and organization problems in regard to the convention...

I think their negativity is going to come back and bite them in the rear. The country is simply tired of it. If their convention is a total fiasco they'll whine & carry on...so much the better. The more disarray in the dem party the better off we are. I agree with you that this will NOT be an ordinary election year though. We've got to get better at condensing our major points into sound bites too. This is an area the dems beat us every time.

[King Prout]

forgive me, but *yawn*

it is too early yet, and I fully expect the DNC to pull a federal level NJ2002 on us come October, and swap Hillary for Kerry once he has been battered to bits by Dubya.

and... don't forget the DNC vote-fraud machine.

no one should feel perky, let alone cocky, this early in what shall be the dirtiest American Presidential election ever.

[bootyist-monk]

The President's numbers should continue to grow now that the media is no longer covering the horse-race among the Democrats. Also, the slaughter in Spain has once again reminded people what this election is really about, and on the "War on Terror", Dubya has an almost 2-1 lead over Kerry. It is going to be hard for Kerry to argue that the election is about Gay Marriage and $7/hr jobs for Teamsters when Spain, Iraq, the Trial of Saddam and the possible catch of Osama will be dominating the news cycle.