Bush Takes Back The Lead As 'Primary Effect' Wanes (Good News!)

Investor Business Daily ^ | March 13 2004 | NA

[Dog]

President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest.

The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader.

In a two-way race Bush leads Kerry 46% to 43%.

A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds.

now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest.

Bush's lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerry's lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bush's lead widened to 18 points from 13.

In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points.

"The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner.

Now, after Democratic candidates' months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said.

The president's ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution.

Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."

In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same.

In a two-candidate race, where Bush has a 46%-43% lead, 10% are undecided.

In a three-way race, Bush's lead expands by 2 percentage points – 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%.

Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush.

"Nader is clearly an asset for the president," said Mayur.

The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error plus/minus 3.4 percentage points.

[Magnolia]

Thanks Dog. Most of this knew it would happen. We'll take a pounding right after the dem's national convention & rebound from that too. We just need to take heart and do our part to ensure a Bush/Cheney '04 victory.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

This is like a breath of fresh air on a hot Summer day. Thanks.

Coming home on the hottest day of the year and stepping into an air-conditioned room, take out an ice cold beer and take a long cold gulp.

That's what it feels like to me.

[Reagan Man]

If this poll trend is taking place after only a week of initial Bush campaign ads --- mostly positive ads I might add --- then Kerry is in deep trouble. The mainstream media spin will continue to favor Kerry and free airtime is always a plus. It will be interesting to see how other polls are trending.

[babaloo]

Is it true Kerry voted to raise taxes 350 times? I am serious. That would make a terrific ad.

[fish hawk]

The bombing in Spain is a terrible thing, true, but some good comes from the most heinous crimes. The good I see is that Americans will wake up to the threat that is still out there. This could have happened in America but for a caring President and Protector of his people. I believe that when Americans get into that voting booth they are not going to see Effin Kerry as the protector of their safety. Let's stick with the man that is already doing a good job of it: George W. Bush.

[firewalk]

bttt

[Names Ash Housewares]

I expect that the numbers will improve more as the terrible reminder in Spain of how dangerous the world
still is starts to sink in over here.
Amazing how many polls show Bush ahead yet those
polls never seem to get much mention.
This is exactly what happened with Arnold.

[onyx]

Thank you Dog. Your post has brought a smile to my face.

[teletech]

Coming home on the hottest day of the year and stepping into an air-conditioned room, take out an ice cold beer and take a long cold gulp.

That's what it feels like to me.

Exactly!

[Boundless]

DNC talking point being held in reserve:

When it becomes blindingly apparent to everyone that JFK is
doomed, the Dems will complain: "The Republicans wanted
Kerry because they knew he'd lose. It's all a VWRC plot.
Don't let them get away with it!"

And if the truth sinks in before the Dem convention, watch out.

[AUH2OY2K]

The article should read Bush 46%, Kerry and ABCCBSNBCCNNCNBCand NYT 43%

[MEG33]

((((((((((((((((((((HUGS)))))))))))))))))

[billorites]

Kerrey's had his post-convention bounce.

[Ingtar]

March poll and of adults. Why believe this on over the ones that showed Kerry ahead. Bush should pay no mind to the polls and campaign like the Dems are going to manufacture a lot of votes in close states.

[hope]

"Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."

Yep, the left is crapping in their pants over this movie and how it has lead in the box office...The flyover country has spoken....Let them try to deny that.

[alwaysconservative]

Thank you so much for posting this; I was beginning to dread reading the polls.

[Fiddlstix]

[bogdanPolska12]

Kerry will destroy himself--- There is enough ammunition on Republican side to take Kerry head on that will literally obliterate him. Let him continue talking more he does more foolish he looks and shows his colors. I am very optimistic at outcome of this election. President election bump.

[EDINVA]

don't exaggerate the terror factor ! you're just doing it to instill fear in the people !

more than those who'd vote for Nader, I'm concerned with our fickle American public .. relentless attacks on Bush notwithstanding, I find it hard to beleve that people can switch back and forth so easily, like tossing a coin. Still, I prefer this poll to those of recent weeks. Thanks for posting.

[SamAdams76]

I'll never forget the summer of 1988 when it seemed that Mike Dukakis was going to be the next president of the United States. Being from Massachusetts, this year is like deja vu. Another crappy liberal from my home state as the Democratic nominee. I'm so sick of the liberal media's hype and adulation already that I can't even look at the Boston Globe without getting sick to my stomach. Fortunately the Boston Herald is still around, though the Herald has fallen out of favor with me because they get more and more like a cheap supermarket tabloid all the time.

But I can't emphasize enough how meaningless these polls are right now. Dukakis sported a double-digit lead over Bush in the middle of July! But when the election came, it wasn't even close. I'm hoping that this is the case again.