Bush Takes Back The Lead As 'Primary Effect' Wanes (Good News!)

Investor Business Daily ^ | March 13 2004 | NA

[Dog]

President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest.

The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader.

In a two-way race Bush leads Kerry 46% to 43%.

A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds.

now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest.

Bush's lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerry's lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bush's lead widened to 18 points from 13.

In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points.

"The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner.

Now, after Democratic candidates' months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said.

The president's ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution.

Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."

In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same.

In a two-candidate race, where Bush has a 46%-43% lead, 10% are undecided.

In a three-way race, Bush's lead expands by 2 percentage points – 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%.

Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush.

"Nader is clearly an asset for the president," said Mayur.

The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error plus/minus 3.4 percentage points.

[Dog]

Cheer up people.

[Dog]

Something to enjoy..

[samtheman]

Just think of the mental equipment of those willing to throw their vote away on Nader.

I thought this year these losers would realize how stupid they were.

I was wrong.

And I am glad.

[cyncooper]

SMOOCH

[teletech]

This is like a breath of fresh air on a hot Summer day. Thanks.

[Rocko]

Just think of the mental equipment of those willing to throw their vote away on Nader.

Reminds me of the Perot vote in '92 (of course, on a much smaller scale).

[AmericaUnited]

A very interesting anecdotal tail...

I'm surrounded by liberals at work. What was both very, very interesting and confirming to me was that two of them just can't really vote for Horse Face as a leader of this country during these "uncertain" times, and the other one won't vote for Horse Face after hearing he voted to raise taxes 350 times.

[Dog]

Exactly.

People on this site need to realize something .......9/11 changed everything.

[Dog]

Bush needs to beat Kerry like a drum......with the 9/11 issue.

You can't have health care .....if we are all dead from a terrorist attack.

[tiamat]

That's good.

Thanks for posting it!

[GWB00]

Please remember that Dukakis was 17 points ahead of then VP Bush after the nomination.

GWB has taken a huge pounding by nine little punks for over 14 months and the President is still ahead? A steady beat of "negative" ads and the capture of Bin Laden will write of John FN'Kerry

[BobFromNJ]

Bump!!! Right you are!!

[sinkspur]

Good news, indeed! Woof!

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

If Bush looks unbeatable by election day, and most people think he will be reelected, Nader's vote total may swell to 8% or more as disgruntled Democrats cast protest votes.

[whereasandsoforth]

I hope no one pulls your anecdotal tail...but!

Stop it! You're gonna blow my whole belief system if you can quote liberals with good sense.

[don'tbedenied]

Another tale:

I work with a very active liberal Democrat who began gloating when Kerry took the lead in the polls. I offered to bet him even up any amount he cared to wager. He changed the subject and when pressed fled. I believe the D's aren't real confident in the Ketchup boy.

[freedom1st]

I will second your headline - This is good news. I think (and hope) Kerry peaked last week. With all the obvious politicing by the Main Media against Pres. Bush, their influence is now on the wane.

[FairOpinion]

This is certainly good news.

But if Bush only wins with Nader in the race, we have to be very careful, because the Dems could somehow force Nader to throw his support behind Kerry at the last minute.

Bush needs to have a comfortable lead in a head-on Bush-Kerry match up.