Bush Takes Back The Lead As 'Primary Effect' Wanes (Good News!)

Investor Business Daily ^ | March 13 2004 | NA

[Dog]

President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest.

The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader.

In a two-way race Bush leads Kerry 46% to 43%.

A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds.

now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest.

Bush's lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerry's lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bush's lead widened to 18 points from 13.

In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points.

"The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner.

Now, after Democratic candidates' months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said.

The president's ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution.

Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."

In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same.

In a two-candidate race, where Bush has a 46%-43% lead, 10% are undecided.

In a three-way race, Bush's lead expands by 2 percentage points – 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%.

Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush.

"Nader is clearly an asset for the president," said Mayur.

The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error plus/minus 3.4 percentage points.

[proud American in Canada]

great news!

[talleyman]

Bump!

[paul51]

In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points

These polls flip flop as much as kerry and are about as dependable

[spokeshave]

"Kerrey's had his post-convention bounce."

make that a "dead horse" bounce

[Teacher317]

Just think of the mental equipment of those willing to throw their vote away on Nader.

I've answered every online poll for Nader. Let Kerry go even further Left trying to grab those 5%... then give them a nice surprise in November: "Whoops! Didn't get enough dead people voting... apparently the Dems didn't actually have that much support!" ;^)

(May your enemies always overestimate their strength and underestimate yours)

[jmstein7]

BUMP!

[freedumb2003]

The only message you send is one of discouragement to our President and encouragement to his (and the nation's) enemies.

Point well taken. Perhaps I should have not rushed -- now that the presumptive Demon has stepped into his place, I am done with the "messages" -- GWB has my full support (but he still needs to change the border positions and realize that Fox is NOT a friend to the USA).

This is the beginning of a groundswell -- the Demons have had months of free shots at the Pres while pretending to actually have "debates" (who hates Bush more? Who is the most un-Bush?). Now the gloves are off and Kethchup boy has to answer for his flip-flopping, gigolo, anti-American ways.

I was just suggesting that GWB has p*ssed off the conservatives and they have been yelling. But now, we will close ranks.

[gswilder]

Bush is now back up 2 points in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll. I think once Bush gets going, it will go back to a 7-10 point average lead for Bush.

[unspun]

"Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, 'The Passion of the Christ.'"

Perhaps they should reverse this and analyze the effect that George W. Bush is having for the Great Commission of Christ.

[McGavin999]

That means that only half of Nader's support would vote. Somehow I think by the end of this they would choose not to even bother to come out.

There is still over 7 months to the election, those numbers are going to move around a lot over that time. It's going to get very, very interesting.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Tom Daschle is saddened, deeply saddened.

[truthandlife]

That is why Kerry is asking for debates this Spring. He knows Bush's money machine with these ads are going to bleed him to death.

[redwhiteandblue]

I think it's a little early to assume that Nader votes will swell. I have been erring on the side that this race will be close and that Nader's 6% will peel off down to between 1 and 2% in the last days. The most important thing is the head to head poll. Great to see Bush up 3 points in the two way race, and the primary effect while weakening is still helping Kerry.

By the way...Can anyone vouch for this poll. I've never heard of it before.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

By the way...Can anyone vouch for this poll. I've never heard of it before.

IBD has more credibility than the NYTimes and Wall Street Journal combined.

[Liz]

(Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ.")


The biggest mistake John Kerry's made to date is his remarks that he was "unsure" about "The Passion of the Christ" the top-rated film believers of all tempers are flocking to see (Reuters News Service. "Democrat Kerry Urges Caution on 'Passion,' 26 February 2004, by Patricia Wilson).

"I don't know," Kerry said when asked if he would see the Mel Gibson film. Secular critics have complained about the film. "I am concerned," Kerry told reporters. "I think we have to be careful."

Kerry's hesitant comments about "The Passion of The Christ." are troubling to every believer.

As a presidential candidate, Kerry's comments are loaded with meaning for the future of the United States of America. Kerry worships abortion, the homosexual agenda, and the stripping away of every Christian symbol in America. Kerry is against everything Christians stands for.

Kerry cannot even say a good word about a powerful film that is changing the course of American history. Kerry could have said so many things to assure the millions of Christians who are pouring into theatres to see the film that their concerns were going to be part of his campaign. Kerry prefers to kowtow to a ragtag cadre of secularists, the very same groups that have contributed to be the death of American culture.

Kerry is appealing to the lowest common denominator, a tiny minority of voters, a ragtag cadre of naysayers who are categorically against the Passion film.

Who's kidding who? Kerry is pandering to secularists in order to get campaign dollars and voting blocs. He is appealing to the Hollywood types who fear they will lose their chokehold on American culture.

Secularists have vastly profited from the anti-Christian culture and would prefer to keep Christians subdued and marginalized. Kerry's ill-conceived remarks show that he will strengthen secularists power over Christian America.

Kerry's comments and his positions on social issues must reach every Christian pastor, church, and group in America.
These are the issues Christians are talking about:

(1) Kerry's comments about The Passion movie have effectively disqualified him from holding the highest office in Christian America.

(2) Transparently anti-Christian candidates do not deserve Christian votes.

(3) Candidates carrying Bibles and going to church (the Clintons) but who vote against everything Christians believe in are not going to fool Christians again as they have in the past.

(4) Abortion, the institution of marriage, Christen symbols in American life, are very important issues and must be addressed.

(5) The future of America depends on which candidate supports Christian issues. Kerry has demonstrated that he need not apply.

America has learned to its grief that the secular-prescribed nostrums result in the sordidness of school killings, disturbed one-parent kids, crime waves of titanic proportions, schools teaching the destructive, terroristic NEA--PP'hood agenda, sexual license, ever younger teen and pre-teen pregnancies, throw-away babies, abortion on demand including infanticide, and the homosexual takeover.

[Democratshavenobrains]

Noone should trust any of Nader's numbers. Everyone said he was going to get 5% in 2000 and it was more like 2.5%.

[InvisibleChurch]

i was never cheered down ... but a good article nonetheless

[deport]

Bush's lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4.

---

The real key in this poll to me is the above statement. It will be the swing states that determine the next President, not the safe red or blue states of each candidate. I don't know which states they consider to be swing in their poll but I'm assuming they include the 18 or so that the President's campaign is concentration on.

[bray]

Polls are for clintonites. These polls mean nothing, especially PravdABDNC polls. We need to play like we are 10 pts behind and make those up in the end.

Pray for W and The Truth

[Chunga]

"You can't have health care .....if we are all dead from a terrorist attack."

Dog!!

That's one of the most succinctly stated slices of political thought I've ever read!

Brilliant!! Bravo!!!!!