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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, March 8, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 03/08/2004 3:09:00 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
| State |
% Chance of Bush Winning |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama |
92.0 |
9 |
0 |
| Alaska |
93.0 |
3 |
0 |
| Arizona |
73.0 |
10 |
0 |
| Arkansas |
70.0 |
6 |
0 |
| California |
17.6 |
0 |
55 |
| Colorado |
80.0 |
9 |
0 |
| Connecticut |
13.0 |
0 |
7 |
| Delaware |
28.0 |
0 |
3 |
| District of Columbia |
2.0 |
0 |
3 |
| Florida |
63.0 |
27 |
0 |
| Georgia |
85.0 |
15 |
0 |
| Hawaii |
13.0 |
0 |
4 |
| Idaho |
94.5 |
4 |
0 |
| Illinois |
20.1 |
0 |
21 |
| Indiana |
87.0 |
11 |
0 |
| Iowa |
45.0 |
0 |
7 |
| Kansas |
91.0 |
6 |
0 |
| Kentucky |
88.0 |
8 |
0 |
| Louisiana |
80.0 |
9 |
0 |
| Maine |
35.0 |
0 |
4 |
| Maryland |
17.5 |
0 |
10 |
| Massachusetts |
4.0 |
0 |
12 |
| Michigan |
40.0 |
0 |
17 |
| Minnesota |
39.0 |
0 |
10 |
| Mississippi |
92.0 |
6 |
0 |
| Missouri |
64.0 |
11 |
0 |
| Montana |
91.0 |
3 |
0 |
| Nebraska |
93.0 |
5 |
0 |
| Nevada |
65.0 |
5 |
0 |
| New Hampshire |
58.0 |
4 |
0 |
| New Jersey |
14.0 |
0 |
15 |
| New Mexico |
58.0 |
5 |
0 |
| New York |
15.0 |
0 |
31 |
| North Carolina |
82.0 |
15 |
0 |
| North Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
| Ohio |
65.0 |
20 |
0 |
| Oklahoma |
93.0 |
7 |
0 |
| Oregon |
36.0 |
0 |
7 |
| Pennsylvania |
49.0 |
0 |
21 |
| Rhode Island |
5.0 |
0 |
4 |
| South Carolina |
87.0 |
8 |
0 |
| South Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
| Tennessee |
85.0 |
11 |
0 |
| Texas |
91.0 |
34 |
0 |
| Utah |
95.0 |
5 |
0 |
| Vermont |
7.0 |
0 |
3 |
| Virginia |
87.0 |
13 |
0 |
| Washington |
35.0 |
0 |
11 |
| West Virginia |
47.0 |
0 |
5 |
| Wisconsin |
46.0 |
0 |
10 |
| Wyoming |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
| Totals |
|
278 |
260 |
TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralcollege; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to
TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
To: Momaw Nadon
This seems like little more than a rehashing of the 2000 results. This election will not be nearly as close as people are predicting. I'm not sure who will win, but it will be a solid win either way.
2
posted on
03/08/2004 3:11:08 PM PST
by
Betaille
(The city put the country back in me)
To: Momaw Nadon
3
posted on
03/08/2004 3:11:31 PM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon; ambrose; Dales
*ping*
4
posted on
03/08/2004 3:12:24 PM PST
by
onyx
(Kerry' s a Veteran, but so were Lee Harvey Oswald, Timothy McVeigh and Benedict Arnold.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Ill bet PA goes for Bush this time..
5
posted on
03/08/2004 3:12:29 PM PST
by
cardinal4
(Terrence Maculiffe-Ariolimax columbianus (hint- its a gastropod.....)
To: Betaille
Won't take many of those really close states to swing to Bush to make a big difference
To: Momaw Nadon
I think CA is in play...
7
posted on
03/08/2004 3:16:44 PM PST
by
Dog
(Bin Laden your account to America is past due......time to pay up.)
To: Betaille
Bush picks up NM, loses WV according to this scenario.
Sounds about right for right now. A lot can happen in eight months.
To: Dog
CA is only slightly more in play than Texas.
To: Momaw Nadon
I'm guessing the reason it's bid/ask is, it's against the law to bet on presidential elections.
10
posted on
03/08/2004 3:18:35 PM PST
by
stylin19a
(Is it vietnam yet ?)
To: cardinal4
"Ill bet PA goes for Bush this time.."
If Bush can articulate his National Security message well and use Gay Marriage to hurt Kerry, he will win PA. Also, Florida will no longer be a swing state.
11
posted on
03/08/2004 3:18:35 PM PST
by
Betaille
(The city put the country back in me)
To: Momaw Nadon
No change in total Electoral Votes from last week.
However, Bush has lost ground in:
Alabama
Alaska
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Maine
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska
New Jersey
North Carolina
Oregon
Texas
And only gained ground in:
Iowa
Virginia
12
posted on
03/08/2004 3:18:38 PM PST
by
So Cal Rocket
(If consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds, John F. Kerry’s mind must be freaking enormous)
To: Neets
Ping!
13
posted on
03/08/2004 3:20:34 PM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Betaille
I'm not sure who will win, but it will be a solid win either way. "Newbie wisdom" is always so funny...
Unless Bush gets caught the proverbial "two naked teen girls", he's going to crush Kerry.
To: Betaille
I'm not sure who will win, but it will be a solid win either way. Nice little smoke screen you've got going.....
15
posted on
03/08/2004 3:21:24 PM PST
by
Krodg
("My faith frees me"...G.W. Bush........'A Charge To Keep')
To: Krodg
"Nice little smoke screen you've got going....."
Not at all... where do you get that from? I think Bush will probably win... I just don't like the 50-50 nation myth. Bush will either articulate his message and win solidly... or fail to do so and lose solidly.
How does that make me a traitor? I have been as pro-Bush as anyone for the last 2 years and I am rooting for him and voting for him. I was also the most optimistic until I saw Rove's weak first batch of campaign ads. Look at my postings from before thursday if you need any proof of that.
16
posted on
03/08/2004 3:26:06 PM PST
by
Betaille
(The city put the country back in me)
To: Betaille
Florida? I dont share your optimism. Jeb needs to be working on delivering Florida now. And he doesnt appear to be..
17
posted on
03/08/2004 3:27:50 PM PST
by
cardinal4
(Terrence Maculiffe-Ariolimax columbianus (hint- its a gastropod.....)
To: onyx
Can I get on this ping list too?
18
posted on
03/08/2004 3:28:25 PM PST
by
JLS
To: cardinal4
"Jeb needs to be working on delivering Florida now. And he doesnt appear to be.."
Jeb has done alot... it is the Bush campaign that isnt doing Dubya justice. When Bush starts getting his message out Florida will be a solid state. North Florida is almost fanatic about Dubya, and South Florida wont be very happy with Kerry's social liberalism and fondness for communist dictators.
19
posted on
03/08/2004 3:30:13 PM PST
by
Betaille
(The city put the country back in me)
To: Momaw Nadon
I predict a Bush win with at least 300 electoral votes, maybe 325.
20
posted on
03/08/2004 3:30:55 PM PST
by
Terpfen
(Re-elect Bush; kill terrorists now, fix Medicare later.)
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