2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 8, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[oldtimer]

Hope you are right, and we need six more Republican Senators if we are on a roll.

Kerry is scary.

Where can I get a bumper sticker that says that?

[onyx]

I don't have a ping list, but I'll ask Neets to put you on hers and Dales.

*ping* Neets, please add JLS to yall's ping list. Thanks.

[thepatriot1]

Heres a scary thought. If you reverse NH and NM which are the two where Bush is closest to losing (58%), we are looking at 269-269. What happens then?

[onyx]

Your scenario is scary, but I don't think it'll be as close this time, do you?

[Neets]

This is not DALES' weekly ECB thread, but here's a ping for interested folks anyway.

[onyx]

Please add JLS.

[Neets]

I got it toots!!

Good morning!!

[onyx]

Morning to you too, Neets! :)

[Archie Bunker on steroids]

Bush Will lose NEw Hampshire and New Mexico. I fthatoccurs, and aeverything else stays the saem, we have a tie.

Can we actually put money on these odds? If so, I'll put up one Million dollars to win 20K that Kerry will win DC.

[Archie Bunker on steroids]

Nice typing Bunker.

Bush Will lose New Hampshire and New Mexico. If that occurs, and everything else stays the same, we have a tie.

Can we actually put money on these odds? If so, I'll put up one Million dollars to win 20K that Kerry will win DC.

[Snowy]

What happens then?

The dems will turn up the cheating until they win. I think the race will be very close. All those who think Bush will run away with this may have forgotten to add in the dems "cheat" factor. They are masters at cheating and are getting better at it all the time.

[Jim Noble]

The media-Hollywood complex has decided to take the last big step towards becoming the Teaching Magesterium of the New Culture-they are going to instruct the faithful to vote for Kerry.

What interesting times we live in!

[Jim Noble]

Bush is a lock up here in NH.

Write it down.

In 2000, we didn't know him, and we don't care much about cowboy boots.

That was then. This is now.

Put NH in the Bush column, and leave it there.

[Jim Noble]

Heres a scary thought. If you reverse NH and NM which are the two where Bush is closest to losing (58%), we are looking at 269-269. What happens then?

Don't be scared. Jimmy Madison and Tommy Jefferson have a plan.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

If you reverse NH and NM which are the two where Bush is closest to losing (58%), we are looking at 269-269.

New Hampshire 58.0
New Mexico 58.0 Total, 9 EV

A probability of .58 of getting 5 electoral votes should not be treated the same as a certainty of getting 5 electoral votes. Weigh the electoral votes of each state by the probability of Bush's getting those votes (according to the traders), and you'll compute an expected electoral vote count of 289 for Bush. 26 posted on 03/08/2004 7:17:56 PM EST by Wallaby

Pennsylvania 49.0 21
West Virginia 47.0 5
Wisconsin 46.0 10

The table of odds shows lots more for Kerry to bite his nails over. PA almost a perfect tossup; WVa and WI scarcely less so.

We know that those odds will change between now and November, but we don't know how. But you'd have to say that Kerry really needs to move them his way to be in the hunt. For such a putatively close election, you have to say that the number of EV assigned a probability of more than 40 and less than 60% is notably small. But of those, the EV having probabilities within 5% of 50 is all below rather than above 50%, and the number of EV involved is substantial. Kerry will have to play defense as well as offense.

[labard1]

Most state markets are VERY thin, so you can't really put meaningful money into these contracts. The national vote is fairly liquid.

[labard1]

"I think CA is in play..."

If you're right, November will be a landslide for the good guys! :)

[labard1]

"it's against the law to bet on presidential elections"

Not quite true. The Iowa electronic market is located in Iowa and has been around for several elections. It sharply limits the number of contracts that any participant can own, so it's impossible to lose a lot of money. The theory is that it's educational, and tests the efficiency of markets in predicting a variety of events. This is its home page: http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/ . Some contracts are limited to academic traders only.

[Archie Bunker on steroids]

Havn't you guys been filling up with Massholes over the last few years. They ;leave their over taxed craphole, come to NH, then eventually turn it into the liberal cess poll they left. Polls don't look good at this point, but i sure hope NH comes through.