2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 8, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Betaille]

"I predict a Bush win with at least 300 electoral votes, maybe 325."
I agree. This will be the result as long as Dubya gets his message out. However, if Rove continues with his current advertising methods and never articulates a message(positive or negative), it could be a heavy loss.

[cardinal4]

We'll see. Im not arguing with you, but i have real doubts about Florida, this time around.

[Betaille]

"i have real doubts about Florida"
I do too. If the Bush campaign doesnt start educating people about the real Kerry... and fixing some myths the media has created about Bush, every state will be in doubt. However, if they do their job, Florida will be solid for Bush... Florida when I left it in 2003 was much more conservative than the florida when I arrived in 2000.

[OneTimeLurker]

"This will be the result as long as Dubya gets his message out. "

IMO like all incumbents, Bush no longer really has a message that people are interested in. He now has a record. Unless more jobs are created (i.e., more than the 21K government jobs last month), he is going to loose. His only second option is to slam Kerry and that alone won't rule the day as far as I am concerned.

[Betaille]

I disagree with your "its the economy" message. If Bush can really paint Kerry as Weak on National Security, which he will likely be able to do because Kerry is in fact Weak on National Security... he can make the point that without safety and strength, the USA will never be able to create jobs. By the way, the economy will be creating more than 21k jobs per month by November, though the dems will still be trying to raise negativity.

[Wallaby]

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

No. If we assume the traders are correct, then we take the probabilities as accurate and use them in forming an expectation of the final result. A probability of .58 of getting 5 electoral votes should not be treated the same as a certainty of getting 5 electoral votes. Weigh the electoral votes of each state by the probability of Bush's getting those votes (according to the traders), and you'll compute an expected electoral vote count of 289 for Bush.

[hosepipe]

In 2000 Bush won as a big eared funny looking Alfred E. Nueman look alike from Texas that could'nt talk to good..

This time 2004 he still looks the same.. passed the biggest entitlement bill since L.B. Johnson is playing domino's while illegal rats stream across the border like locusts and republicans will STILL vote for him AS if he were a conservative.. and democrats could care less how liberal he is.. or not... and some might even vote for him because Kerry is even worse than Al Gump...

Beam me up Scotty before November, these people are NUTZ, and I don't trust myself, I might vote for him too, theirs something in the water down here, I believe..

[Republic If You Can Keep It]

it's against the law to bet on presidential elections

Not in Ireland.........home of this website.

[Azzurri]

I don't know, I just returned from Florida and about every other person now living there seems to have an east coast (mainly New York) accent. Does not bode well for the future. The conservative future of FL is in grave doubt with this pollution of the population down there from liberal states. Hopefully, Bush can get thru 2004 winning the state but I also have my doubts about that happening.

[raloxk]

exactly same as 2000 results

[raloxk]

"This seems like little more than a rehashing of the 2000 results. This election will not be nearly as close as people are predicting. I'm not sure who will win, but it will be a solid win either way."

I agree. I think one or the other will break out winning by 5 points or more

[raloxk]

this has always been the case with Florida. Were you in Palm Bach or Broward counties? It isnt as though NYers are all of a sudden moving there

[stylin19a]

oh duh....I missed Ireland big as life.. If it was a snake, it would have bit me.
,br> thanx......

[LibLieSlayer]

I don't think that the present ads are weak in any way. They were designed to inform/remind, not to inflame/attack. I also believe that Carl knew exactly how the dims would react to these ads (we have "people" whose job it is to know these things). With the fake outrage that the dims are propagating about the 9/11 reference, these ads have received huge airplay at a cost of 0$...priceless.

It was a stinging attack the President launched on kerry's voting record today. Couple this with the blistering coverage on FoxNews (tonight) of kerry's Vietnam War record/protesting/activism/Senate testimony. Then there was Carl Cameron's report on kerry mentioning that he had called certain "un-named" foreign leaders who told him that although they can't say so publicly...that they do endorse him...compel him to win so he can set a "new direction". Then (in a Wesley Clark style of "blunder") kerry used several "un-named sources" to promote several whacked-out "anti-Bush" conspiracy theories.

His polish is wearing thin, and his image and truthfulness are starting to erode. President Bush will make him die the death of a thousand papercuts, not quickly as in a Sumari-style attack. The administration is starting a twenty-five mile marathon run, and what we are witnessing now is stretching and warming-up. The gun has sounded, and kerry has sprinted through the first few miles. He is winded, weary, and has a 'fresh" President passing him on the outside.

As Dennis Miller says, "That's my opinion; I could be wrong".

LLS

[Ophiucus]

I was also the most optimistic until I saw Rove's weak first batch of campaign ads.

I thought the opening ads were perfect. They were positive, uplifting, and optimistic in regards to the nation, it's future and his leadership. Very "Reaganesque" in style and content. A perfect counter to the shrill negativity of the DemoRats.

If Bush, and Rove, continue this approach, then there's a chance of a better campaign and a larger victory.

[birbear]

I agree... I think CA is in play...


I have a good friend who works for the State in Sacramento... those that admit to being Gore voters are relieved that Arnold was elected in the recall and appear to be very Pro-Bush at the moment


Granted a lunch room in Sacramento does not a whole state make, but this is a typically liberal crowd from what I hear, and aren't at all impressed with Kerry.

[birbear]

Also I think WA and OR, especially if the economy turns around up here, can be battleground states.

[fiftymegaton]

There is exactly zero chance PA will go for Bush UNLESS Dem voter fraud is seriously hampered in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Interesting. This tally already pretty much gives Kerry most of the battlegrounds and he still loses.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Unless more jobs are created (i.e., more than the 21K government jobs last month), he is going to loose. His only second option is to slam Kerry and that alone won't rule the day as far as I am concerned.

Those numbers aren't worth the paper they're printed on, but alot of people believe them, and the press pimps them all the time, so it is a concern.

IMO, when there are more people working now than there were 1/19/01, jobs haven't been lost but tell that to the clowns who call 4% spending increases 'cuts' when they want 10%.