Poll Woes For Bush (CBS Poll) Kerry/Edwards 50% - W/Cheney 42%--W Approval@ 47%

cbsnews.com ^ | 02/28/04 | CBS/AP

[KQQL]

The four Democrats still officially seeking their party's presidential nod will debate Sunday for the last time before Super Tuesday, even as a new CBS News poll shows President Bush's approval rating slipping below 50 percent for the first time in that survey.

Some 47% of Americans now approve of the way the President is handling his job, while 44% disapprove.

The same poll shows a John Kerry/John Edwards ticket beating one headed by Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney in the fall election, by a margin of 50 percent to 42 percent.

Whether that difference is due more to the appeal of Kerry and Edwards together or suggests weak voter support for Cheney couldn't be determined in this poll.

In addition, it shows both Kerry and Edwards running about even with Mr. Bush in the fall if they ran without the other on their ticket.

Americans continue to express doubts about the situation in Iraq, and point to the economy and jobs as the issues they are most concerned about.

Still, voters said they expect a Bush win in November, although that view is less pervasive than it was in early January. Now, 48% expect Mr. Bush to win, and 42% see a Democrat winning the presidency. In January, 55% expected the president to be re-elected, and just 31% thought the Democratic candidate could prevail.

Kerry holds a wide lead over Edwards in the poll as the choice of Democratic voters both nationwide and in the ten states that vote on Tuesday.

That lead for the nomination is especially strong among those Democrats who say beating the president is more important than agreeing on the issues.

Both Kerry and Edwards have gained public favor since the Democratic campaign began. More Americans hold favorable views of both men than have unfavorable ones.

And in a sign of how much the Democratic race has changed since the first weeks of the year, one-third of Super Tuesday voters say they are former Howard Dean supporters. Today, most of those voters back John Kerry.

"Countdown to Super Tuesday: The Democrats Debate," sponsored by CBS News, WCBS-TV and The New York Times, will bring together Kerry, Edwards, Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich in the CBS Broadcast Center in New York.

[jwalsh07]

Sardo talked about outsourcing, moving manufacturing jobs overseas, moving certain clerical jobs overseas, our current trade status with China... the guy echos my beliefs on this topic.

What belief would that be? That every time we export product, we are taking away somebodys job in the country we export to?

[wgeorge2001]

"Yep, remind me of how California's problems are all of it's own devising. You say that California has been messing itself. No my friend, it's been messed on, and we're sick of it. Federal government policy and appointments have almost singlehandedly destroyed it."


Now wait a minute, how can you say that California has been messed on, this sounds much like the standard mantra of the left defending itself as a "victim" of one sort or another. Every conservative in the country realizes that California became a communist nation of it's own accord many years ago and is now enjoying the consequences of ignorant socialist democrat policies and STATE government mismanagement. Many conservatives believe that the left is the enemy within America, as I do.
Let's be honest, California created it's own mess and was dumped on by it's "forward thinking (foolish)" politicians who run it like the communists run communist countries. If what you say is true, wouldn't all the states be in the same mess that California is? Conservative states generally do better and the more conservative they are the better they do.
You,sir, are wrong and I hope you realize it. What states in the country are now in bankruptcy are liberal states and just because liberals refuse to believe they are the problem does not mean they are not the problem. They are the problem, they really are! As you sow, so shall you reap.

[atomicpossum]

Did CBS say what the weather will be like on election day?

[raloxk]

"How so: and who made the decision?"

History has made that decision.

1912
1968
1976
1980
1992

only in 1948 did the incumbent party split and win the election

[Semper Paratus]

So . . . if we can't evaluate it, it is essentially worthless.

Like most of their hit piece stories. The one's that begin with "Sources say", or "Some have said".

[veronica]

Polls are widely divergent at this point. If Bush is behind after the GOP convention, I'll start to worry.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

This is, in a way, just what our base needs. It will motivate every available republican voter in the country to get out and vote, or else we face a socialist form of government if the Democrats get elected.

It is preposterous for the believe that we can elect a Democrat president and increase the numbers of Republican legislators at the same time. Reality will be, if the Democrats win the Presidency, they will win the legislature majority as well. If that happens, we are truly SCREWED!

[DefCon]

"...they are a snap shot of people in time..."
- - -
I consider all of thesse polls worthless.
I am over 50 years old.
I have voted in every presidential election
since Nixon vs. McGovern in 1972.
I have never been 'polled'.
Not once.
What are the odds?

[raloxk]

"President Bush is losing the Republican base by this crazy immigration policies"

You didnt bother to read the polls results. Both Kerry and Bush have an 88-8 approval among their bases

[paulsy]

so basically, the liberal media polls show Kerry with a wide margin, while the more scientific polls show them even. Not surprising.

[DoughtyOne]

If you have some numbers that dispute my comments, please feel free to provide them.

[DoughtyOne]

Perhaps they wanted to build momentum late in the season, after the Dems had given it their best shot at their own convention. I wasn't aware of the situation you mention. Is there a sixty day rule or something? Interesting point.

[DoughtyOne]

To: DoughtyOne

"Yep, remind me of how California's problems are all of it's own devising. You say that California has been messing itself. No my friend, it's been messed on, and we're sick of it. Federal government policy and appointments have almost singlehandedly destroyed it."

Now wait a minute, how can you say that California has been messed on, this sounds much like the standard mantra of the left defending itself as a "victim" of one sort or another. Every conservative in the country realizes that California became a communist nation of it's own accord many years ago and is now enjoying the consequences of ignorant socialist democrat policies and STATE government mismanagement. Many conservatives believe that the left is the enemy within America, as I do.

Let's be honest, California created it's own mess and was dumped on by it's "forward thinking (foolish)" politicians who run it like the communists run communist countries. If what you say is true, wouldn't all the states be in the same mess that California is? Conservative states generally do better and the more conservative they are the better they do.

You,sir, are wrong and I hope you realize it. What states in the country are now in bankruptcy are liberal states and just because liberals refuse to believe they are the problem does not mean they are not the problem. They are the problem, they really are! As you sow, so shall you reap.

102 posted on 02/29/2004 5:36:55 AM PST by wgeorge2001 (Pr. 8:36 36. But he that sinneth against me wrongeth his own soul: all they that hate me love death)

Yes, California's leadership is partly to blame.  Davis and the Democrat controled legislature were boobs.  They did screw us.  Much of their actions were directed at gun control and other b.s. liberal agenda items.  Some of their actions did impact the budget, but that wasn't the whole story.

In my comments I mentioned how a $30 billion dollar bill for educating the children of illegal aliens had been forced on the State by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.  If you disagreed with that, you should have stated so and why.  You didn't.  California is around $40 billion in debt today.  Do you or do you not think the $30 billion dollar bill for educating the children of illegal aliens in just Los Angeles contributed to that?

Despite California's rotten to the core leadership, it's citizens have passed bills designed to ease the burden of illegal aliens.  They passed Proposition 187 which would have denied any public funds to illegal aliens and their children.  That alone would have saved us tens of billions of dollars.  Whats to deny here?  Without the intervention of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, California would have eliminated tens of billions of dollars from it's budget woes.

You folks back east like to dump on Californians as if they were different than you.  That's a short sighted ignorant thing to do.  Californians by large majorities bitch-slap the legislature to no avail.  Appointees from the federal government (the members of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals) strike them down.  You tell me who the real liberal monsters are fella.  Californians didn't appoint a single one of those Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals judges.

It may interest you to know that traditionally California has been the final destination point of about 50% of all new immigrants to the United States.  The same has held true for illegal immigrants.  Other states are now beggining to understand why California has had so many problems, as illegal immigrants flood their regions.

You show me a state that can afford to pay the bills for upwards of five to six million people.  By your comments you are revealing that you think health care, education, crime, infrastructure, auto insurance rates (to those that actually bother to carry it) are not affected by those who don't pay a nickle for any of this.

In my initial comments, I touched on all this.  Your knee-jerk response was to ignore all of it.

As for your comments about me being wrong, you are overlooking the fact that California alone carry's 50% of the weight of illegal immigrants.  The rest are disbursed across 49 other states.  You don't see an certain amount of inequity in that, a monetary exposure?  While Californians were trying to explain that to the rest of the nation, and our leaders, they were told that illegals were not that big a problem and to live with it.

I'd love to see your state take five to six million freeloaders.  Then we could see how your conservative leadership would pay the bills.

"Yep, remind me of how California's problems are all of it's own devising. You say that California has been messing itself. No my friend, it's been messed on, and we're sick of it. Federal government policy and appointments have almost singlehandedly destroyed it."

Now wait a minute, how can you say that California has been messed on, this sounds much like the standard mantra of the left defending itself as a "victim" of one sort or another. Every conservative in the country realizes that California became a communist nation of it's own accord many years ago and is now enjoying the consequences of ignorant socialist democrat policies and STATE government mismanagement. Many conservatives believe that the left is the enemy within America, as I do.

Let's be honest, California created it's own mess and was dumped on by it's "forward thinking (foolish)" politicians who run it like the communists run communist countries. If what you say is true, wouldn't all the states be in the same mess that California is? Conservative states generally do better and the more conservative they are the better they do.

You,sir, are wrong and I hope you realize it. What states in the country are now in bankruptcy are liberal states and just because liberals refuse to believe they are the problem does not mean they are not the problem. They are the problem, they really are! As you sow, so shall you reap.

[Bringbackthedraft]

Come election time I'll worry about the polls. October suprises like Guiliani on the ticket, Osama on a slab can change all the percentages. Kerry is a shaker only to the ABB crowd. CBS Poll probably done in NYC.

[FRgal4u]

The actual numbers are revealing -

1) The weaker number on a two ticket races - I don't think it is due to the strength of Kerry+Edwards, but rather the weakness of Cheney. Hardcore conservatives still ignore the huge warning sign, Cheney is a liability, especially to Independents. Put Cheney in an advisory role, off the ticket he goes, Bush need someone more vigourous in campaigns and drawn in the Indpendent votes.

2) The Split numbers on party votes - it is remarkable to see a 42 vs 50 split when you have a 88/8 R, 8/88 D and 41/44 I..I don't know the exact distribution of R/D/I in the sample..It is definitely not R = D, R is likely the smallest sample there or they oversample the Ds. If you believe R = D with I in the middle, the composite could not be that far apart - 42/50. The R will cancel the D and the 41/44 in I is not enough to push a 42/50 split.

3) Discrepancy of the approval rating and actual ticket vote - assume a 47% approval is correct, a 42% ticket vote is very low. Maybe it reflects the weakness of Cheney, and indeed the top of ticket Bush vs rest vote is consistently in the 46-49% range in the Rammussen daily tracking poll.

I wish the WH start to move aggressively to repair the damage, and seriously considering the future of Cheney. Put Cheney in an advisory role, put someone can energize the party. If Bush losses the independents by more than 5% this fall, he can't win regardless how many hard conservatives will go out to vote this fall. He needs the swing states with lots of Independents to win - if he lose those, he can write PA off and if he losses OH on the jobs issue, he is toast.

[Republic Rocker]

I agree with the Cheney issue...although I like him he is whacked by the press almost more often the President. And the "little guy" (i hate that word but the bleeding heart dims use it) is always suspect of the big powerful corporate guy. they just do not relate.

i know Rudy is a little soft on social issues but the guy is a HERO with the masses......same thing with McCain. The guy brings in alot of moderates....

But Bush is as faithful as it gets...so i expect him to fight it out with Cheney by his side......

[FRgal4u]

A Bush/rudy or Bush/McCain ticket will alter all the election landscape - I consider both options as unlikely but will get the media buzzing all week. Equally untinkable will be a Bush/pwell case. I doubt Bush will go for these options though, I really think he is living in a bubble, surrounded by the optimistic advisors on things and getting more and more out of touch. It really takes a blind man for not seeing the liability Cheney has on his re-election ticket. Bush can't not win without at least pull an even in the Independents this fall and I doubt a Cheney Veep will do that magic, more likely in reverse.

jmho.

[JohnnyZ]

California is around $40 billion in debt today. Do you or do you not think the $30 billion dollar bill for educating the children of illegal aliens in just Los Angeles contributed to that?

Sure, that's part of it. But, even conceding that the overall effect is negative, you have to look at the positive contributions immigrants both legal and illegal have made, and see where it comes out in the end. Besides, California would probably be able to handle all its immigrants if the tax and regulatory environment wasn't terrible, among other things.

[DoughtyOne]

To: DoughtyOne

California is around $40 billion in debt today. Do you or do you not think the $30 billion dollar bill for educating the children of illegal aliens in just Los Angeles contributed to that?

Sure, that's part of it. But, even conceding that the overall effect is negative, you have to look at the positive contributions immigrants both legal and illegal have made, and see where it comes out in the end. Besides, California would probably be able to handle all its immigrants if the tax and regulatory environment wasn't terrible, among other things.

118 posted on 02/29/2004 10:54:43 AM PST by JohnnyZ (People don't just bump into each other and have sex. This isn't Cinemax! -- Jerry)

Where republican administrations made choices that took illegal immigration into acocunt, and worked the budget over so it would balance, the democrat Gray Davis didn't.  For this the chump got booted.  So yes, in effect you can say that some of this is our fault.  The fact still remains that we are being swamped by third world people crossing our border.  I say third world because these folks have very little education, have no means of self-support upon arriving, and cannot communicate with those who could give them a helping hand up, even if they were qualified to work here.

In Davis defense, in the last five years the illegal alien population in the state about doubled.  At some point there comes a time when you can't transfer more highway upkeep money, school improvement funds, more reserve funds to increase the ever-expanding costs of illegal immigrants.

You state that immigrants, yes even illegal ones make great contributions to our society.  I think we all acknowledge the positive benefits from immigration in total.  I think it's preposterous to claim that the illegal immigrant quotient doesn't differ.

I'm going to throw out some numbers here.  You can feel free to challenge them.  I'm not going to quote sources, so it's up to you if your gutt tells you this isn't reasonable.

The general illegal immigrant doesn't get paid substantial wages, so he isn't paying big dollars in state or federal withholding taxes.  Many of them are paid funds under the table at construction sites and by local residents who hire them to do manual labor tasks.  This situation is ripe for fraud.  I'll touch on that later.

Many illegals have a child as soon as possible upon arriving in the United States.  Some have them within months of arriving.  Once that child is born on US soil, they are a US Citizen.  Shortly thereafter, in the following years a second, third and fouth child come along.  About five years later, these children start entering  local schools.  At the cost of about $8000 per child, each of those children will cost close to $100,000.00 to educate.  With even three children that's close to one third of a million dollars.  Tell me how a person making minimum wages, some of them even being paid under the table, is going to contribute enough to the state to be a positive assett.

When you heap the healthcare costs of a faimily of five on to that over seventeen to eighteen years, do you honestly think your claim that these people have a positive impact on our society?  I have seen firsthand the impact these people have had on our health care industry.  I have seen what the overpopulation has done to our schools.  I have seen the impact on our roads, communities, crime and public safety.

Here's something else to consider.  Once that anchor baby is born, he becomes a US citizen.  As such he is eligable for public support.  Now, that family that is obtaining payments under the table can claim that their income is far less than it actually is.  And so the benefits are increased due to this flaw in the system.  Add child two through whatever to this.

Do you still think this is a  win win?

California is around $40 billion in debt today. Do you or do you not think the $30 billion dollar bill for educating the children of illegal aliens in just Los Angeles contributed to that?

Sure, that's part of it. But, even conceding that the overall effect is negative, you have to look at the positive contributions immigrants both legal and illegal have made, and see where it comes out in the end. Besides, California would probably be able to handle all its immigrants if the tax and regulatory environment wasn't terrible, among other things.

[JohnnyZ]

I think it's preposterous to claim that the illegal immigrant quotient doesn't differ.

And I wouldn't claim that; just that both groups make some positive contribution.

Tell me how a person making minimum wages, some of them even being paid under the table, is going to contribute enough to the state to be a positive assett.

I said it would be negative on balance.

The general illegal immigrant doesn't get paid substantial wages, so he isn't paying big dollars in state or federal withholding taxes. Many of them are paid funds under the table at construction sites and by local residents who hire them to do manual labor tasks. This situation is ripe for fraud.

Sounds like you'd be in favor of a guest worker program to fix this problem :)

Do you still think this is a win win?

I never did. To enter Algore mode: "In MY plan, illegal immigration would not be tolerated, while legal immigration would be welcomed, up to a relatively high limit. Anyone trying to come to America ILLegally would be placed in a lockbox and shipped to Guadalajara." Plus a modest guest-worker program.