Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Ten

Various

[Dales]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this tenth installment, the remaining states: Tennessee, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and the great state of Texas.

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Tennessee

Electoral Votes: 11

2000 Result

Bush 51%

Gore 47%

Background: Carter against Ford, Clinton twice (both times needing help from Perot), and Johnson. Republicans generally have had success here since Truman.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
12/8/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	37%
1/29/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	43%

Punditry: Kerry has enjoyed a nice bounce here, but the state still Leans for Bush.

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New Hampshire

Electoral Votes: 4

2000 Result

Bush 48%

Gore 47%

Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
4/27/03	Franklin Pierce College	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	42%
9/11/03	American Research Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	36%
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%
12/10/03	American Research Group	NA	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	38%
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%
1/20/04	Associated Press	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%
2/20/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	511 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	53%

Punditry: That last poll sure is different than the results all of the other polls done in the state have been showing. As such, I am treating it with extreme skepticism, especially since the American Research Group is really the poll to watch for NH (they are based there). Just to be cautious, I will designate New Hampshire a Slight Advantage for Bush, but if the next ARG poll shows the lead holding I will likely upgrade this rating.

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Wisconsin

Electoral Votes: 10

2000 Result

Gore 47.83%

Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	LV	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	LV	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%

Punditry: Quite a reversal in Bush's fortunes according to the polls here, especially considering it is the same polling company. Wisconsin is one of the states that is often considered a possible pickup for Bush this time, and his previous numbers show it is possible, but it will take quite a change from where things are right now, which is that the state Leans for the Democrats.

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Oklahoma

Electoral Votes: 7

2000 Result

Bush 60%

Gore 38%

Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: Sooner country has put away their Texas animous for Presidential candidates, and this remains Safe for Bush.

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Texas

Electoral Votes: 34

2000 Result

Bush 58%

Gore 39%

Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: Texas is Safe for Bush. It is Bush country.

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Summary Table
	Bush					Democrat
	Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
	ND (3)	CO (9)	GA (15)	NV (5)	OR (7)	NM (5)	CA (55)	NY (31)	VT (3)
	AL (9)	SC (8)	NC (15)	FL (27)	WV (5)	ME (4)	WI (10)	DE (3)	MA (12)
	MT (3)	KY (8)	MO (11)	NJ (15)	-	MI (17)	-	MD (10)	DC (3)
	WY (3)	KS (6)	VA (13)	NH (4)	-	PA (21)	-	WA (11)	RI (4)
	UT (5)	MS (6)	OH (20)	-	-	IA (7)	-	CT (7)	HI (4)
	ID (4)	SD (3)	IN (11)	-	-	MN (10)	-	IL (21)	-
	AK (3)	LA (9)	AZ (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	NE (5)	-	AR (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	OK (7)	-	TN (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	TX (34)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Designation Total:	76	49	112	51	12	64	65	83	26
Candidate Total:	237			127			174

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Next installment: A closer look at the battleground states, and updates to a few states that have new polls.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven
Installment Eight
Installment Nine

[jwalsh07]

NJ for Bush? LOL, Reagan would lose todays NJ by 10 points, President Bush will lose it by more than that.

[Dan from Michigan]

Coattails are largely history, and reverse coattails are well, whatever.

I think Coattails only matter if you have an extremely popular candidate at the top(Reagan), and reverse happens when you have Geoff Fieger.

I don't see that this time.

[Dan from Michigan]

Am I the only person who remembers that Bush LOST five Senate seats for his party while capturing the WH from the other party?

I don't think Bush lost them for the party.
McCollum was weak(bad on 2nd amendment, and terrible on the 4th amendment.) Spence Abraham beat himself with his immigration stance, trade positions, weak campaign, bad front office and wishy washyness. Ashcroft was victim of bad luck with the plane crash. Slade Gorton was probably an age and $$$ victim. Bill Roth's trouble was age and that he was facing a governor.

[SC Swamp Fox]

Electoral Tie. Not impossible.

Graphic generated at www.edwardsforprez.com

[KQQL]

Torie, I saw that earlier you thought W could lose OH in 04.

If W loses OH in 04, then Kerry will be POTUS....

[jack gillis]

FIVE seats?

I did not mean to minimize Bush's win: He captured a WH from the other party, which is always some doing. But there had to be a lot of ticket-splitting going on for a party to capture the WH while losing five seats. At some point you gotta say, "Hmmmm. Perhaps there's a national trend here."

The GOP lost House seats, too, remember.

[Torie]

You got it now, except I think NM is going for Bush, and I think Ohio is a tossup, along with Minnesoooota. As is so often the case, all roads lead to Ohio. The Pubbies have never won an election without winning Ohio. Right now, the economic transition is giving Ohio heartburn.

[Torie]

That about sums it up, unless Bush wins the Fat Belt. You know what the Fat Belt is now, don't you?

[jwalsh07]

Ohio isn't going for Kerry. Cultural issues, a growing economy and the war on jihadists will overcome job loss to tip for Bush. Remember you heard it here.

[Torie]

Ohio = X conflicted. It depends where the crosses intersect. Oh course, we are all positing here about a skin tight election. It may not be that way, one way or the other.

[Torie]

Which is why by the way, I think states should be called by plus of minus the national average percentages. That way, national swings are not predicted. Who can predict those?

[edwin hubble]

Thanks,

For the 269-269 Electoral Vote tie (and a win in the House of Representatives)

In that case...
Missouri, West Virginia and Florida will be where the battle is fought.

[jack gillis]

What's scary is, that's an INCREDIBLY FEASIBLE outcome. Bush loses NV over Yucca Mtn while Kerry wins NH after the Green/Dem total already beat Bush last time and everything else stays the same.

[wylenetheconservative]

The "economic transition" in OH is happening in the places that are already strongly Dem like Toledo, Akron, and Cleveland. Those old dirty industrial towns have been in the RAT column for years. I don't think GWB will be hurt by that. I think the result in OH will be similar to 2000. Bush winning metro Cincy and Columbus by big margins, losing metro Cleveland, and winning the state by about 5%.

[jwalsh07]

I can see it breaking for Bush in a big way of the stars align but I think I would have to look in a parallel universe to see it breaking big for Kerry. Almost all of the red states are solid Bush, lots of blue states around the 50/50 range.

You think Bush has a chance in Minnesota?

[jwalsh07]

Good analysis and doggone funny tagline.

[KQQL]

My 2 cents:

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NH: ....@ this time slightly leans to Kerry not W...
It's a kerry thing.

NJ: leans for Kerry.

MN: is a toss up.

NV: is a toss up too to slight leans to W

OH : A tossup to slight leans to W ( W wins because of GAy Marriage issue, not the Jobs issue
in Oh)

WV: Slight lean to W

N: slight leans Kerry, No way W wins.......
DEMOGraphics are screwed up in NM...

[KQQL]

SEE post #77.. I agree with you about OH

[wylenetheconservative]

I think WVA is the best chance for the Rats to pick up a state that they lost in 2000. The gun issue doesn't appear to be in play this time, and WVA is still extremely Democrat. Nevada will be in play in 2008, but I still don't think that Hispanic registration is high enough to put it in play in 2004. If Bush holds serve everywhere else and loses WVA and NH it could also be a tie.

[Torie]

My gut tells me that Minnesota is trending GOP, and it has been. There is no sign of trendy liberalism to a significant degree in the Twin Cities metro area. That is a killer for the Dems. I think Minn will be slightly more GOP than the nation.