 |
|---|
| Tennessee |
| Electoral Votes: 11 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 51% |
| Gore 47% |
Posted on 02/22/2004 5:24:26 PM PST by Dales
Edited on 02/23/2004 3:48:05 AM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this tenth installment, the remaining states: Tennessee, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and the great state of Texas.
| |
|---|
| Tennessee |
| Electoral Votes: 11 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 51% |
| Gore 47% |
Background: Carter against Ford, Clinton twice (both times needing help from Perot), and Johnson. Republicans generally have had success here since Truman.
Polling Data:
| Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/8/03 | Mason-Dixon | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 52% | Unnamed Democrat | 37% |
| 1/29/04 | Mason-Dixon | NA | LV | 5% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 43% |
Punditry: Kerry has enjoyed a nice bounce here, but the state still Leans for Bush.
 |
|---|
| New Hampshire |
| Electoral Votes: 4 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 48% |
| Gore 47% |
Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.
Polling Data:
| Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/27/03 | Franklin Pierce College | Link | 600 RV | 4% | Bush | 42% | Unnamed Democrat | 42% |
| 9/11/03 | American Research Group | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 50% | Unnamed Democrat | 36% |
| 10/16/03 | Research 2000 | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 39% |
| 12/10/03 | American Research Group | NA | RV | 4% | Bush | 50% | Unnamed Democrat | 38% |
| 10/16/03 | Research 2000 | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 39% |
| 1/20/04 | Associated Press | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 55% | Kerry | 40% |
| 2/20/04 | University of New Hampshire | Link | 511 LV | 4% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 53% |
Punditry: That last poll sure is different than the results all of the other polls done in the state have been showing. As such, I am treating it with extreme skepticism, especially since the American Research Group is really the poll to watch for NH (they are based there). Just to be cautious, I will designate New Hampshire a Slight Advantage for Bush, but if the next ARG poll shows the lead holding I will likely upgrade this rating.
 |
|---|
| Wisconsin |
| Electoral Votes: 10 |
| 2000 Result |
| Gore 47.83% |
| Bush 47.61% |
Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.
Polling Data:
| Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/03 | Badger Poll | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 53% | Unnamed Democrat | 42% |
| 10/28/03 | Badger Poll | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 46% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% |
| 1/27/04 | Badger Poll | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 38% | Unnamed Democrat | 54% |
Punditry: Quite a reversal in Bush's fortunes according to the polls here, especially considering it is the same polling company. Wisconsin is one of the states that is often considered a possible pickup for Bush this time, and his previous numbers show it is possible, but it will take quite a change from where things are right now, which is that the state Leans for the Democrats.
 |
|---|
| Oklahoma |
| Electoral Votes: 7 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 60% |
| Gore 38% |
Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.
Polling Data: None available.
Punditry: Sooner country has put away their Texas animous for Presidential candidates, and this remains Safe for Bush.
 |
|---|
| Texas |
| Electoral Votes: 34 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 58% |
| Gore 39% |
Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.
Polling Data: None available.
Punditry: Texas is Safe for Bush. It is Bush country.
| Summary Table | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bush | Democrat | ||||||||
| Safe | Strong | Lean | Slight | Tossup | Slight | Lean | Strong | Safe | |
| ND (3) | CO (9) | GA (15) | NV (5) | OR (7) | NM (5) | CA (55) | NY (31) | VT (3) | |
| AL (9) | SC (8) | NC (15) | FL (27) | WV (5) | ME (4) | WI (10) | DE (3) | MA (12) | |
| MT (3) | KY (8) | MO (11) | NJ (15) | - | MI (17) | - | MD (10) | DC (3) | |
| WY (3) | KS (6) | VA (13) | NH (4) | - | PA (21) | - | WA (11) | RI (4) | |
| UT (5) | MS (6) | OH (20) | - | - | IA (7) | - | CT (7) | HI (4) | |
| ID (4) | SD (3) | IN (11) | - | - | MN (10) | - | IL (21) | - | |
| AK (3) | LA (9) | AZ (10) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| NE (5) | - | AR (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| OK (7) | - | TN (11) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| TX (34) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Designation Total: |
76 | 49 | 112 | 51 | 12 | 64 | 65 | 83 | 26 |
| Candidate Total: |
237 | 127 | 174 | ||||||
Next installment: A closer look at the battleground states, and updates to a few states that have new polls.
Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.
Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven
Installment Eight
Installment Nine
There have been several posts that question his picks, but they are a good starting point for discussion.
New Hampshire, for example, will probably have the strongest GOP ticket in the nation, with Judd Gregg and Craig Benson joining Bush-Cheney at the top. Democrats have state Senator Burt Cohen for senate and no gubernatorial hopeful so far.
How important is ticket strength? That's . . . debatable.
Any opinions?
Other battleground states with stronger GOP tickets than Democrat: Ohio (Sen. Voinovich vs. Fingerhut), possibly Florida with Martinez/Cuban vote implications, Iowa (Sen. Grassley vs. Small), MISSOURI (Sen. Bond vs. Farmer, Blunt vs. Gov. Holden), Arizona (McCain), Georgia (senate nominee).
Battlegrounds with stronger Democrat tickets: Oregon (Sen. Wyden), Wisconsin (Sen. Feingold), Cali (Sen. Boxer vs. Jones - debatable), Nevada (Sen. Reid), Arkansas (Sen. Lincoln), Indiana (Sen. Bayh vs. Scott).
The other battleground states with neutral-ish tickets: NC, VA, NJ, WV, ME, MI, PA, MN, TN
I do try not to hold being a moderate against you but sometimes you go over the line in your pronouncements regarding Christian conservatives, attacking them for being, well, Christian conservatives, instead of playing the happy RINO. Cheers.
My closest friend on this site is a self described Christian conservative (I'm a near atheist Wasp eclectic type, and admit it, but on balance, clearly right of center). Maybe he is oblivious to my vicious attacks, blinded by friendship. Or maybe you have it a bit wrong. Just a thought.
Well, he has NJ in the "slight GOP" category.
You could question his reasons for that...or just demand a urine sample.
I guess that might put you on his p*** list.
Most of the time I have no problem with you. But sometimes you lose it.
Regarding ticket strength, my opinion is that the effect is negligible in most cases, but that there is an advantage in certain cases, most notably New Hampshire and Missouri for the Republicans this time around. The two main advantages: turnout and PR.
Turnout: when a base is enthused, it is more likely to turn out in high numbers. While the presidential race is the prime driver of turnout, having strong, well-funded senate and gubernatorial candidates spend millions on their own, or coordinated, operations, can only help. A strong ticket will also increase enthusiasm for the ticket and increase self-motivated turnout. On the flip side, Democrats are in for a divisive primary in Missouri, and may end up with unpopular Governor One-Term-Bob Holden on the ticket. THAT can't be good for morale.
PR: When Bush shows up in New Hampshire, he gets to hang out with probably the two most popular elected officials in the state on the campaign trail. He has Judd Gregg saying "I agree with Bush, he has the right stuff, Kerry has opposed the things I've worked for in the senate, etc". That contributes to a favorable impression of Bush in voters' minds.
How much of an impact is it? 2.0%? 0.5%? 0.1%? Any of those three could be the difference between winning or losing a tossup state.
Now we don't see eye to eye on everything but we do on lots of things.
But when Torie talks about election analysis, the economy or the law he is on very solid footing. He's taught this Christian conservative a lot. Give him a chance, he's akin to lichens, he'll grow on your right side.
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