Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Ten

Various

[Dan from Michigan]

Good example would be the Condo Communists down in Florida that move from NYC to Boca Raton....and bring Bobby Wexler and Peter Deutsch with them.

[KQQL]

Beasley was not one of the GOP candidate at that time...

Now he is, because he was the only one winning .....then too

[SC Swamp Fox]

I used Dales' table above to allocate the states.

There have been several posts that question his picks, but they are a good starting point for discussion.

[JohnnyZ]

One factor you haven't mentioned in your punditry: ticket strength.

New Hampshire, for example, will probably have the strongest GOP ticket in the nation, with Judd Gregg and Craig Benson joining Bush-Cheney at the top. Democrats have state Senator Burt Cohen for senate and no gubernatorial hopeful so far.

How important is ticket strength? That's . . . debatable.

Any opinions?

Other battleground states with stronger GOP tickets than Democrat: Ohio (Sen. Voinovich vs. Fingerhut), possibly Florida with Martinez/Cuban vote implications, Iowa (Sen. Grassley vs. Small), MISSOURI (Sen. Bond vs. Farmer, Blunt vs. Gov. Holden), Arizona (McCain), Georgia (senate nominee).

Battlegrounds with stronger Democrat tickets: Oregon (Sen. Wyden), Wisconsin (Sen. Feingold), Cali (Sen. Boxer vs. Jones - debatable), Nevada (Sen. Reid), Arkansas (Sen. Lincoln), Indiana (Sen. Bayh vs. Scott).

The other battleground states with neutral-ish tickets: NC, VA, NJ, WV, ME, MI, PA, MN, TN

[Torie]

If Dales picked NJ for Bush, he was on drugs at the time.

[Torie]

Coattails are largely history, and reverse coattails are well, whatever. The thought that local candidates will drive turnout in a way that will skew the presidential race is also problematical. I won't say it can't happen, but it is rare. I notice that I am still on your shit list. LOL.

[edwin hubble]

Great Work.

thinking cautiously.

Bush takes all the "safe, strong and lean" states.
Any way you look at it he needs Florida plus 6 EVs to win outright.
So if he takes Florida and either W.Va or Nevada @ 5 each.(reasonable).

Bush and Kerry tied at 269.
That sends it into the Republican house.

[JohnnyZ]

I notice that I am still on your shit list. LOL.

I do try not to hold being a moderate against you but sometimes you go over the line in your pronouncements regarding Christian conservatives, attacking them for being, well, Christian conservatives, instead of playing the happy RINO. Cheers.

[KQQL]

Electoral Vote Calculator

@

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ev/

[Irene Adler]

Iowa will be in the Bush column by election day. Iowans just LOVE incumbents.

[Torie]

you go over the line in your pronouncements regarding Christian conservatives, attacking them for being, well, Christian conservatives

My closest friend on this site is a self described Christian conservative (I'm a near atheist Wasp eclectic type, and admit it, but on balance, clearly right of center). Maybe he is oblivious to my vicious attacks, blinded by friendship. Or maybe you have it a bit wrong. Just a thought.

[Torie]

Yep, unless Iraq is really in play in a negative way. Iowans are terminally dovish. They hate violence. They are friendly, neighborly folks, and think that their neighborhoods should be the norm on the planet, if peace is just given a chance. The place is also almost devoid of miliary bases.

[KQQL]

To: SC Swamp Fox
If Dales picked NJ for Bush, he was on drugs at the time.

45 posted on 02/22/2004 7:11:53 PM PST by Torie

---

lol...

[SC Swamp Fox]

If Dales picked NJ for Bush, he was on drugs at the time.

Well, he has NJ in the "slight GOP" category.

You could question his reasons for that...or just demand a urine sample.

I guess that might put you on his p*** list.

[jack gillis]

The public's increasing bias towards divided government means that reverse coattails are stronger now than coattails.

Am I the only person who remembers that Bush LOST five Senate seats for his party while capturing the WH from the other party?

[jack gillis]

LAUGH same thing came up on part nine.

The House doesn't vote by member, it votes by delegation, one vote each.

Evenly divided delegations means there may not be a a majority of 26 to be had.

[Torie]

NJ appears to have suddenly popped up on Dales' spread sheet pursuant to some mysterious deus ex machina. I suspect it was some DU hack job.

[Owen]

Missouri and Ohio must be defended. If he wins those, he probably wins. Period. We need GOTV efforts there.

[JohnnyZ]

Or maybe you have it a bit wrong.

Most of the time I have no problem with you. But sometimes you lose it.

Regarding ticket strength, my opinion is that the effect is negligible in most cases, but that there is an advantage in certain cases, most notably New Hampshire and Missouri for the Republicans this time around. The two main advantages: turnout and PR.

Turnout: when a base is enthused, it is more likely to turn out in high numbers. While the presidential race is the prime driver of turnout, having strong, well-funded senate and gubernatorial candidates spend millions on their own, or coordinated, operations, can only help. A strong ticket will also increase enthusiasm for the ticket and increase self-motivated turnout. On the flip side, Democrats are in for a divisive primary in Missouri, and may end up with unpopular Governor One-Term-Bob Holden on the ticket. THAT can't be good for morale.

PR: When Bush shows up in New Hampshire, he gets to hang out with probably the two most popular elected officials in the state on the campaign trail. He has Judd Gregg saying "I agree with Bush, he has the right stuff, Kerry has opposed the things I've worked for in the senate, etc". That contributes to a favorable impression of Bush in voters' minds.

How much of an impact is it? 2.0%? 0.5%? 0.1%? Any of those three could be the difference between winning or losing a tossup state.

[jwalsh07]

Johnny, you're dreaming. Torie certainly hasn't found Jesus, in fact I doubt he's even looking but there's no way he's a Christian basher. He's respectful of others beliefs in a way that it would behoove many to be.

Now we don't see eye to eye on everything but we do on lots of things.

But when Torie talks about election analysis, the economy or the law he is on very solid footing. He's taught this Christian conservative a lot. Give him a chance, he's akin to lichens, he'll grow on your right side.