[Torie]

You got it now, except I think NM is going for Bush, and I think Ohio is a tossup, along with Minnesoooota. As is so often the case, all roads lead to Ohio. The Pubbies have never won an election without winning Ohio. Right now, the economic transition is giving Ohio heartburn.

[wylenetheconservative]

The "economic transition" in OH is happening in the places that are already strongly Dem like Toledo, Akron, and Cleveland. Those old dirty industrial towns have been in the RAT column for years. I don't think GWB will be hurt by that. I think the result in OH will be similar to 2000. Bush winning metro Cincy and Columbus by big margins, losing metro Cleveland, and winning the state by about 5%.