Posted on 02/22/2004 6:58:20 AM PST by Dales
Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this fourth installment, the random state generator presented me with Kentucky, Michigan, Rhode Island, Idaho, and Alaska.
Kentucky |
---|
Electoral Votes: 8 |
2000 Result |
Bush 57% |
Gore 41% |
Background: Johnson, Carter (first time) and Clinton (twice) carried the Bluegrass state. Nixon (twice), Reagan (twice) and both Bushes won here. It is very likely that Clinton would not have carried Kentucky either time if not for Perot. In 1992 Clinton won by three points with Perot capturing 13%, and in 1993 Clinton won by 1% with Perot capturing 9%.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10/23/03 | Associated Press | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 47% | Unnamed Democrat | 29% |
2/4/04 | Courier Journal | NA | LV | 4% | Bush | 55% | Unnamed Democrat | 38% |
2/16/04 | Survey USA | Link | LV | 3.8% | Bush | 57% | Unnamed Democrat | 41% |
|
Punditry: Bush carried it by 16, and the polls show the same margin. Things have changed, but this has stayed the same. Strong Advantage for Bush
Michigan |
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Electoral Votes: 17 |
2000 Result |
Gore 51% |
Bush 46% |
Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5/26/03 | Epic/MRA | Link | 400 RV | 5% | Bush | 48% | Unnamed Democrat | 41% |
9/21/03 | Mitchell Research | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Unnamed Democrat | 49% |
12/10/03 | Survey USA | Link | 724 LV | 3.7% | Bush | 53% | Kerry | 43% |
2/3/04 | Survey USA | Link | 724 LV | 3.7% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 51% |
Punditry: The polls in Michigan have basically oscillated around the even mark. When Bush is enjoying good weeks, he is up. When the Democrats are having good weeks, they lead. Couple that with the relatively close result last time, and the state's historical role as a battleground is shown to be a likely reprise. Right now, I am categorizing it a Slight Advantage for the Democrats.
Rhode Island |
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Electoral Votes: 4 |
2000 Result |
Gore 61% |
Bush 32% |
Background: Nine of the last eleven times, Rhode Island has gone for the Democrat. The two exceptions? When Republican Presidents that the state rejected originally ran for re-election (Reagan and Nixon).
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2/7/04 | Brown University | NA | RV | 4.6% | Bush | 31% | Unnamed Democrat | 53% |
Punditry: The trend of RI voting for incumbent Republican presidents was broken when Clinton defeated the elder Bush. While if Bush had gotten 100% of the Perot vote, he would have won, he would have lost if he had gotten three quarters of it, so the blame cannot be placed on Perot. The younger Bush is not going to revive that tendency. Rhode Island is Safe for the Democrats.
Idaho |
---|
Electoral Votes: 4 |
2000 Result |
Bush 67% |
Gore 28% |
Background: LBJ beat Goldwater by a point. That's the best the Democrats have to show here since 1948.
Polling Data: There currently is no publically available polling information. I don't expect that to change any time soon.
Punditry: Safe for Bush
Alaska |
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Electoral Votes: 3 |
2000 Result |
Bush 59% |
Gore 28% |
Background: No Democrat wins since Johnson. Perot came within 2 points of Clinton the first time.
Polling Data: Don't hold your breath.
Punditry: Alaska is Safe for Bush.
Summary Table | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bush | Democrat | ||||||||
Safe | Strong | Lean | Slight | Tossup | Slight | Lean | Strong | Safe | |
ND (3) | CO (9) | GA (15) | NV (5) | - | NM (5) | CA (55) | NY (31) | VT (3) | |
AL (9) | SC (8) | NC (15) | FL (27) | - | ME (4) | - | DE (3) | MA (12) | |
MT (3) | KY (8) | MO (11) | - | - | MI (17) | - | - | DC (3) | |
WY (3) | - | VA (13) | - | - | - | - | - | RI (4) | |
UT (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
ID (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
AK (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Designation Total: |
30 | 25 | 54 | 32 | - | 26 | 55 | 31 | 22 |
Candidate Total: |
114 | 58 | 111 | ||||||
Undesignated electoral votes: 255 |
Next installment: Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Mississippi.
Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.
Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
So Kerry can be neutralized there - IF the GOP attacks him there.
(testing if I linked this correctly, if not);
www.edwardsforprez.com/map.html
Check it out and save for future reference.
Nice to see you're back for Decision 2004. :D
SE Oakland - Solid democrat to the core. Southfield, Oak Park, and Royal Oak Township are mostly black, and Huntington Woods, Ferndale, and Pleasant Ridge are all mini Ann Arbors. The City of Royal Oak will elect Rinos.
Western and Northern Borders - Solid Republican. Lyon Township, Milford, Highland, Independence Township, Orion Township, etc. This is as Republican as SE Oakland is Democrat.
Central to Central East Rochester and Troy are solid GOP areas. Pontiac is a dem stronghold and a GM town. Auburn Hills leans dem with Diamler-Chrysler, but isnt solid dem. Tom McMillan won there several times, and just won a county commish seat from there. Hes ultra conservative and fights the RINOS as much as the dems. Waterford is a blue-collar marginal GOP area that the dems have been trying and failing to win for years. Birmingham is more liberal, but republican. West Bloomfield (heavily Jewish) will be interesting. It went GOP for congress (Knollenberg) several times, but Gore won by 14% there. How will the Middle East affect the vote there. The other Bloomfields are more GOP. Farmington Hills wants to be 'trendy' all the time.
Did she give you the secret password required to add people to it?
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