Bush 49% Kerry 43% (Rasmussen Daily Tracking - likely voters)

Rasmussen Reports web site ^ | February 20, 2004 | Rasmussen Reports

[edwin hubble]

Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 49% Kerry 43% Other 3% Not Sure 5%

Rasmussen Reports Home February 20, 2004--President George W. Bush now leads Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry by six points in the latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll. As of this morning, Bush attracts support from 49% of the nation's likely voters while Kerry is the choice for 43%.

The electorate that Bush and Kerry are trying to reach has a generally positive view of American society. Sixty percent (60%) say that our nation is generally fair and decent. Another survey found that 64% prefer smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes.

A related survey shows that South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle holds a slight lead over Republican challenger John Thune in what is likely to be one of the most closely watched campaigns this season.

Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry

Feb 20 - 49 . 43

Feb 19 - 48 . 44

Feb 18 - 48 . 43

Feb 17 - 45 . 46

Feb 16 - 44 . 47

Feb 15 - 44 . 48

[Jeff Chandler]

the dem nominee has a lock on most of ...west coast,

Polls indicate that California is in play. That changes everything.

[DestroytheDemocrats]

"As a woman let me tell you, George Bush IS charming."

As another woman, I second that. And like Peggy Noonan says, he's NORMAL. The Dems evidently don't know a normal man when they see one. Actually Edwards is also a normal man, I suppose that is why they are rejecting him.

[smoothsailing]

It's just me, but my guess is President Bush could care less about Kerry.

He's got bigger fish to fry.

He'll get around to Kerry.

I wouldn't want to be Kerry when that happens.

[HitmanLV]

No, I don't think so. 2000 was 48-48-4 or so.

The Dem wins very big in his states. Bush wins solidly in his states. Under mp circumstances can I see Dubya making any inroads in the following: the NE (except NH), the NY-NJ-CT Axis of Leftism, some of the mid atalantic states like Delaware & RI (& DC), Illnois, the left coast (except maybe OR), and Hawaii. In 2004, that's 190 electoral votes.

Nothing convoluted about that. I wouldn;t be shocked to see it wind up 50-47-3, with the Dem winning almost everything that Gore won, except some borderline states. I expect Bush to win 325-350 EVs, but not much more.

Cali in play? Tell that to the same sex marriage capital of the Fighting 50 states!

[HitmanLV]

I am unaware of polls showing Cali in play - frankly that strikes me as fantasyland. Is Bush 10 points down in Cali, and does this somehow mean it is in play?

[Finalapproach29er]

He's polling red states.

Hard to tell what's true.

[11th Commandment]

He was wrong in 2000 because of the massive get out the vote by the DemocRATS. In 2002, others got it wrong because of the massive get out the vote of the Republicans. This election will come down to getting out the vote.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Bush 49% Kerry 43% (Rasmussen Daily Tracking - likely voters)

"Bush-hating online malcontents all commit mass suicide, in resulting tsunami of despair."

Oh... wait. Wait.

That was just a lovely little dream I had, is all. :)

[edwin hubble]

"He's polling red states. Hard to tell what's true."

I read his methodology section. He uses phone calls with taped questions and recorded answers. Automated. Every evening. Not convincing for accuracy but for a detecting a shift or trend it may have some value.

Rasmussen shows Kerry with a 4 point lead Feb 15 and then Bush with a 6 point lead Feb 20th.

It is indeed hard to tell. And hard to tell how CNN managed to get the first early polls turning against Bush (for the media to trumpet with delerium).

[Jeff Chandler]

Kerry Only Democrat Leading Bush in California According to New Poll (Kerry 52, Bush 48)

[HitmanLV]

Works for me! Thanks!

[Polybius]

The media are still in 24/7 delerium, but the public may be cooling somewhat to Kerry.

For what it's worth:

I sat at lunch yesterday with two hard-core, Bush-hating Democrats who take their politics extremely seriously. When talking to each other about the Presidential election, they admitted that "Kerry is going to lose to Bush in November".

[Luke21]

Very well stated.

[AmishDude]

325-350 EVs, that's just fine. I just don't see a 50-47-2 (the total of the remaining fringe candidates will be around 1%) meaning an EV loss for Bush. BTW, it was 49-49 (there was, of course a roundoff) in the Bush/Gore election.

You're right in that Bush is not going to take 49 states. But I think he'll win with a comfortable enough margin to be able to campaign in states solely for the purpose of helping Senate candidates (IL, OK, AK, LA, FL, etc.)

About California, remember that 60% voted against gay marriage. It's not a lock for Bush, but I think he can win it, with Nader running, Arnold putting a kind face on Republicans and Bush's general advantages. Kerry will have to spend money there and Democrats always count on not having to do so.

[HitmanLV]

I'm with you but I wasn't clear in my posts. The 50-47-3 spread, as I suggested, was for a Bush win, not a Bush loss. My mistake in not making it clear enough.

We are of like mind, I think!

[AmishDude]

We are of like mind, I think!

I agree.

[xzins]

Only the last 3 days. He tracked with everyone else throughout the election.

His endgame formula, though, needs adjusting. Zogby seems to have had a better grasp at the end of campaigns.