Bush 49% Kerry 43% (Rasmussen Daily Tracking - likely voters)

Rasmussen Reports web site ^ | February 20, 2004 | Rasmussen Reports

[edwin hubble]

Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 49% Kerry 43% Other 3% Not Sure 5%

Rasmussen Reports Home February 20, 2004--President George W. Bush now leads Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry by six points in the latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll. As of this morning, Bush attracts support from 49% of the nation's likely voters while Kerry is the choice for 43%.

The electorate that Bush and Kerry are trying to reach has a generally positive view of American society. Sixty percent (60%) say that our nation is generally fair and decent. Another survey found that 64% prefer smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes.

A related survey shows that South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle holds a slight lead over Republican challenger John Thune in what is likely to be one of the most closely watched campaigns this season.

Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry

Feb 20 - 49 . 43

Feb 19 - 48 . 44

Feb 18 - 48 . 43

Feb 17 - 45 . 46

Feb 16 - 44 . 47

Feb 15 - 44 . 48

[edwin hubble]

Don't despair. The primary bump may be fading some.

The media are still in 24/7 delerium, but the public may be cooling somewhat to Kerry.

[Koblenz]

This guy was so wrong in 2000.

[GeronL]

LIKELY voters

Not those silly polls that put Kerry ahead by 12% tracking UNLIKELY voters. =o)

[HitmanLV]

I agree that most things considered, Bush is in a strong position for the 2004 election. That being said, the idea of a daily national tracking poll for consumer consumption is of dubious value to me.

With the up-and-down nature of polls, over analysis of these becomes nerve wracking and stressful. Further, a national figure gives a decent idea of what the landscape looks like but shows no insight into the electoral college vote tally (which, I have consistently felt, the dem nominee has a lock on most of the NE, west coast, and hawaii, and not much of a lock on anything else.) Bush ahead 50-46 on election day, as decisive as it appears, still has him losing 100-150 electoral votes, by my count.

[zygoat]

Just wait until the "New Soldier" earns a few dozen political purple hearts, courtesy of Dubya Company. He may be as irrelevant as the sceamin' Deanie when this thing is over with.

[HitmanLV]

Also, Bush really needs to win the popular vote, also. A 2 term president who never won the popular vote just isn't a good thing, public perception wise.

[PeteFromMontana]

Good Lord! Is it just me or are all these polls just way too much?

[VadeRetro]

The media are still in 24/7 delerium, but the public may be cooling somewhat to Kerry.

Amazing how few people knew diddly about Kerry before this year.

[uncbob]

Also, Bush really needs to win the popular vote, also. A 2 term president who never won the popular vote just isn't a good thing, public perception wise.

And just remember all those votes Nader took from Gore
They weren't conservatives

[Wally_Kalbacken]

I think it will be a nice slow decline for Kerry as people get to see what an uninspiring individual he is and as it sinks in that he voted a more liberal stance than TED KENNEDY for Chrissakes!

He'll get an evanescent "bump" from the convention (just as Dukakis was up 17 points after the '88 Democratic convention) and then get clobbered by Bush.

[RightWingMama]

Daily polls?? That's just insane!

[edwin hubble]

"Also, Bush really needs to win the popular vote, also. A 2 term president who never won the popular vote just isn't a good thing, public perception wise."

I do agree. It was not a good thing for minority president Clinton (both elections) to serve two terms.

I would want George Bush to get at least 51%. A majority to govern.

[HitmanLV]

I agree on balance.

[ambrose]

This guy was so wrong in 2000.

Guess what... it is now 2004.

Gallup's final polls for the election of 1952 and 1980 rated the contests a "dead heat"... Zogby had a horrific record in 2002. Rasmussen is no better or worse than anyone else..

[edwin hubble]

"Good Lord! Is it just me or are all these polls just way too much?"

Yes, they are too much. They are all over the map.

But, in the wake of the media frenzy of the past 2 weeks it is a little encouraging to see some better data points in the midst of the scatter.

[ambrose]

Not in the states that voted for him.

[edwin hubble]

"Amazing how few people knew diddly about Kerry before this year."

Yes, and we have to remember that it is the 20% in the center that decide elections.

Many of these are in the midwest. Kerry will not be an easy sell when his full story is told.

[edwin hubble]

"LIKELY voters
Not those silly polls that put Kerry ahead by 12% tracking UNLIKELY voters. =o)"

I honestly don't have a clue how 'likely voters' are selected by Rasmussen. I've read his "methodology" from his web site.

The point may not be the accuracy but the trend of the past week.

[Cicero]

The media will continue to go all out to undermine Bush, from now until next November. Bush needs to save his best moves to sandbag the media at the appropriate times. They don't want to let things get out of hand, but they don't want to waste ammunition now, either.

It would be a different matter if the media weren't filled with ideologues and liars.

[VadeRetro]

Kerry will not be an easy sell when his full story is told.

He's not a good bet to bear up under months of critical examination between now and November for sure. I mean that in two ways. One is that his record is too easy to attack. The other is that he's too brittle, self-important, and utterly lacking in personal charm.