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No, I don't think so. 2000 was 48-48-4 or so.

The Dem wins very big in his states. Bush wins solidly in his states. Under mp circumstances can I see Dubya making any inroads in the following: the NE (except NH), the NY-NJ-CT Axis of Leftism, some of the mid atalantic states like Delaware & RI (& DC), Illnois, the left coast (except maybe OR), and Hawaii. In 2004, that's 190 electoral votes.

Nothing convoluted about that. I wouldn;t be shocked to see it wind up 50-47-3, with the Dem winning almost everything that Gore won, except some borderline states. I expect Bush to win 325-350 EVs, but not much more.

Cali in play? Tell that to the same sex marriage capital of the Fighting 50 states!

325-350 EVs, that's just fine. I just don't see a 50-47-2 (the total of the remaining fringe candidates will be around 1%) meaning an EV loss for Bush. BTW, it was 49-49 (there was, of course a roundoff) in the Bush/Gore election.

You're right in that Bush is not going to take 49 states. But I think he'll win with a comfortable enough margin to be able to campaign in states solely for the purpose of helping Senate candidates (IL, OK, AK, LA, FL, etc.)

About California, remember that 60% voted against gay marriage. It's not a lock for Bush, but I think he can win it, with Nader running, Arnold putting a kind face on Republicans and Bush's general advantages. Kerry will have to spend money there and Democrats always count on not having to do so.