Bush 49% Kerry 43% (Rasmussen Daily Tracking - likely voters)

Rasmussen Reports web site ^ | February 20, 2004 | Rasmussen Reports

[edwin hubble]

Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 49% Kerry 43% Other 3% Not Sure 5%

Rasmussen Reports Home February 20, 2004--President George W. Bush now leads Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry by six points in the latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll. As of this morning, Bush attracts support from 49% of the nation's likely voters while Kerry is the choice for 43%.

The electorate that Bush and Kerry are trying to reach has a generally positive view of American society. Sixty percent (60%) say that our nation is generally fair and decent. Another survey found that 64% prefer smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes.

A related survey shows that South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle holds a slight lead over Republican challenger John Thune in what is likely to be one of the most closely watched campaigns this season.

Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry

Feb 20 - 49 . 43

Feb 19 - 48 . 44

Feb 18 - 48 . 43

Feb 17 - 45 . 46

Feb 16 - 44 . 47

Feb 15 - 44 . 48

[Democratshavenobrains]

The difference between polls here and on DU is that WE show all the results, while they only show ones where the Dem is beating Bush.

[edwin hubble]

Kerry "utterly lacking in personal charm."

In a sense it was the personal charm factor that did in Gore. Bush can be charming.

[White Eagle]

As long as somebody is paying the polling service, it's good for business. And being good for the political consultant business is what this election cycle has become.

Regardless of the outcome this November, anybody want to hazard a guess on when the losing party starts having candidates pop up? When the election cycle never ends, it's good for business. (Ask the DNC head). The good of the people is not a concern here.

[GOP_Proud]

< In a sense it was the personal charm factor that did in Gore. Bush can be charming. >

As a woman let me tell you, George Bush IS charming.

Gore who? Kerry who?

[Hotdog]

Polls...let them take one on morality...thats the one I would like to see

[edwin hubble]

"Bush needs to save his best moves to sandbag the media at the appropriate times."

Bush has found that he can get to the people easier - bypassing the networks and going straight to the local markets - the events covered by local TV news.

Local hometown reporters are more eager to 'get the story' from the President of the United States... and give him a mike. (something a haughty and jaded national 'personalities' never do).

[Koblenz]

I am just pointing out that Rasmussen's record isn't the greatest. As far as 1952, or even earlier with the Literary Digest, is concerned, polling wasn't very good then. Nowadays, pollsters are reasonably accurate, although they do make mistakes. It's not perfect (thre's a margin of error stated with the polls).

[VadeRetro]

In a sense it was the personal charm factor that did in Gore. Bush can be charming.

Gore didn't have much charm, but I have seen some wood grains that were absolutely entrancing.

[edwin hubble]

"Daily polls?? That's just insane!"

Well, yes. But in the midst of all the gloom and doom polls, here is a data point that gives a lift.

Take it for what it's worth.

[feedback doctor]

I think it will be a nice slow decline for Kerry as people get to see what an uninspiring individual he is. . .

How true! He is way more unexciting than Bob Dole, and he was a true war hero!

[CurlyDave]

Does anyone know how much of Bush's "war chest" can be transferred to Ralph Nader?

This would be the single most effective use of about 20% of that money.

[AmishDude]

Bush ahead 50-46 on election day, as decisive as it appears, still has him losing 100-150 electoral votes, by my count.

Only in some convoluted example. If you're thinking EV, a Nader candidacy puts CA in play.

[edwin hubble]

"The difference between polls here and on DU is that WE show all the results, while they only show ones where the Dem is beating Bush."

Yes. We've watched gloomy polls posted for weeks. I watched this poll for the month of February. Kerry led day after day by as much as 5 points.

The point of the last 2 days of this poll is the curve or trend, not necessarily the accuracy.

[Uncle Miltie]

"64% prefer smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes."

Nah. They want massive new entitlements; just ask Washington Republicans.

[AmishDude]

Plus, Rasmussen seems to predict trends in the other polls. The other polls should begin to show a Bush trend.

[edwin hubble]

" If you're thinking EV, a Nader candidacy puts CA in play"

Nader's vote will come from the naive, passionate and dejected Dean supporters.

[edwin hubble]

" If you're thinking EV, a Nader candidacy puts CA in play."

It is the naive, passionate and dejected Dean supporters that will move to Nader.

[ambrose]

I have some accounts on the DU and have posted polls that are positive for Bush, and they promptly remove those threads.

[ambrose]

I have some accounts on the DU and have posted polls that are positive for Bush, and they promptly remove those threads.

[AmishDude]

Nader's vote will come from the naive, passionate and dejected Dean supporters.

And the usual Greenies, even though the olive drab party will have their own nutcase to run.