[AmishDude]

Bush ahead 50-46 on election day, as decisive as it appears, still has him losing 100-150 electoral votes, by my count.

Only in some convoluted example. If you're thinking EV, a Nader candidacy puts CA in play.

[edwin hubble]

" If you're thinking EV, a Nader candidacy puts CA in play"

Nader's vote will come from the naive, passionate and dejected Dean supporters.

[edwin hubble]

" If you're thinking EV, a Nader candidacy puts CA in play."

It is the naive, passionate and dejected Dean supporters that will move to Nader.

[HitmanLV]

No, I don't think so. 2000 was 48-48-4 or so.

The Dem wins very big in his states. Bush wins solidly in his states. Under mp circumstances can I see Dubya making any inroads in the following: the NE (except NH), the NY-NJ-CT Axis of Leftism, some of the mid atalantic states like Delaware & RI (& DC), Illnois, the left coast (except maybe OR), and Hawaii. In 2004, that's 190 electoral votes.

Nothing convoluted about that. I wouldn;t be shocked to see it wind up 50-47-3, with the Dem winning almost everything that Gore won, except some borderline states. I expect Bush to win 325-350 EVs, but not much more.

Cali in play? Tell that to the same sex marriage capital of the Fighting 50 states!