Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Four

Various

[Dales]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this fourth installment, the random state generator presented me with Wyoming, Delaware, Utah, Virginia, and New York.

---

Wyoming

Electoral Votes: 3

2000 Result

Bush 68%

Gore 28%

Background: Ross Perot took over a quarter of the vote during his first campaign, and Bush still carried the state. Ford almost got 60% here. This is about as Republican a state as you can get.

Polling Data: Finding polls for Wyoming is a challenge.

Punditry: Safe for Bush

---

Delaware

Electoral Votes: 3

2000 Result

Gore 55%

Bush 42%

Background: 2-2-1-3-3 is how Delaware has gone over the past 11 elections, with the Democrats currently having the upper hand. Gore's 54% was the highest by a Democrat here since Johnson took over 61%. The three years the Democrats have won here recently, the margins have been 14, 15, and 9. The three previous, the Republicans won by 13, 20, and 2 points, which is very comparable. Has the state changed, or have Democrats just taken advantage of circumstances?

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: On the basis of the 12 point margin by which Gore won this state and the three election streak the Democrats are on, I am starting Delaware off in the Strong for Democrats category. If this state goes for Bush, it would be an early indication of an impending blowout.

---

Utah

Electoral Votes: 5

2000 Result

Bush 67%

Gore 26%

Background: You have to go back to Johnson to find a Democrat win here. Clinton came in third in his first election. This is Republican territory.

Polling Data: No polls available.

Punditry: Not too much to say. If Utah is of interest in this election, then Bush would have been Goldwatered. Safe for Bush.

---

Virginia

Electoral Votes: 13

2000 Result

Bush 52%

Gore 44%

Background: The Democrats have won here just once since Truman- when Johnson beat Goldwater. Despite the result dominance, the margins have been fairly competitive more times than not.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
12/3/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4	Bush	48%	Clark (top Dem in poll)	33%

Punditry: Virginia Leans for Bush, although it would not be surprising to see it move into the strong category over the course of the summer.

---

New York

Electoral Votes: 31

2000 Result

Gore 60%

Bush 35%

Background: From 1960 onward, Republicans have carried the Empire State only three times. Nixon beat McGovern, Reagan beat Carter, and Reagan beat Mondale. Even Dukakis won here.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
4/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	39%
9/23/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	48%
10/28/03	Quinnipiac	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%
11/19/03	Zogby	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%

Punditry: While I can see arguments for thinking California could be in play if things break the right way, I cannot see the same for New York. If New York is a consideration, then the Democrats have been McGoverened. That Zogby result reminds me of when he had Lazio up a point over Hillary the day before the election. Strong for Democrats.

---

Summary Table
	Bush					Democrat
	Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
	ND (3)	CO (9)	GA (15)	NV (5)	-	NM (5)	CA (55)	NY (31)	VT (3)
	AL (9)	SC (8)	NC (15)	FL (27)	-	ME (4)	-	DE (3)	MA (12)
	MT (3)	-	MO (11)	-	-	-	-	-	DC (3)
	WY (3)	-	VA (13)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	UT (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Designation Total:	23	17	54	32	-	9	55	34	18
Candidate Total:	99			41			107
Undesignated electoral votes: 291

---

Next installment: Kentucky, Michigan, Rhode Island, Idaho, and Alaska.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three

[Dan from Michigan]

Utah and Wyoming are obvious. I think Bush will cut the margins in New York, it still will be a solid democrat win there. I think at best, he cuts the margin of loss from 24% to 12%. I think 55% democrat. Somewhat like California - simply a numbers game.

I think Delaware is going more and more dem, much like the Philly burbs. Wilmington is solid Dem as well. The GOP'ers that win there seem to be more liberal too.(Mike Castle)

As for Virginia, I expect this to be tougher and tougher as the years go on with the beltway growth, as well as some regional public infighting within the party over tax issues. Still a GOP leaning area though since the Tidewater and rural areas still blocks out Arlington and Alexandria. Bush won Fairfax County as well.

[Dan from Michigan]

In 2004, national security is again a major issue, with the War on Terror being as prominent as the Cold War once was. John Kerry is promising to roll back the Bush tax cuts and, even more importantly,

True, but I don't think it's enough.

One other major factor in the burbs is simply demographics. Although it's been awhile since I saw the census reports, some of the Philly burbs(Montgomery I think) have a sizable minority population. In Oakland County here, that's a lot of the shift. Southfield is now 56% black. Oak Park is over 50% black and both are growing rapidly with Detroit refugees. A lot of the old Reaganites there are also moving further out west or North.

Add Wilmington to the Delaware Phily burbs, and Bush will need to be perfect to win there.

[Dales]

We'll see. I agree with most of what you wrote (notice my writeup on the background for it) but until I see some evidence that the numbers are going to back up my suspicions, I am taking the prudent step of keeping it as a worst case scenerio.

Once I get all 50 states done, then what I do is once a week update the states which have new polls released. The designations can and will change. I suspect Delaware's is one which will.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Although it's been awhile since I saw the census reports, some of the Philly burbs(Montgomery I think) have a sizable minority population."

---

You must be thinking of the Delaware County suburbs of Chester City, Chester Township and Yeadon Borough. The Montco suburb with the highest black percentage is Norristown Borough, and it's only like 30%-35% black. Montco is nowhere near as Democrat-trending as Southern Oakland County (the more Democratic areas of Montco are similar to West Bloomfield---lots of rich Jewish voters and other limousine liberals).


"Add Wilmington to the Delaware Phily burbs, and Bush will need to be perfect to win there."

---

Delaware is like a microcosm of SE PA. Inner-city Wilmington is like Philly, part of suburban Wilmington is like marginal Montco, Bucks and Delaware Counties, another part of the suburbs are like GOP-leaning Chester and Berks Counties and the two southern rural counties in DE are like Lehigh and Northampton counties, but more Republican. It won't take a "perfect storm" for Bush to carry Delaware; he doesn't need to return to Reagan-style landslides in the suburbs, since the inner-city Wilmington vote is a smaller percentage of the vote than in the 1980s, just get 57% or so in the suburbs. It's a lot like your home state---Republicans don't need 65% in Oakland and 60% in Macomb anymore since Detroit doesn't count for as many votes nowadays.

[Delphinium]

I was hoping things would be different in New York after 911?

[Clintonfatigued]

About Delaware: starting in 1996, there has been a growing urban-'Rat/rural-Republican split in the nation. The state of Delaware is dominated by Wilmington and its suburbs. In 1996, all major metropolitan areas in the northeast (New England/Middle Atlantic states) had a negative reaction to Newt Gingrich and a pronounced trend to the 'Rats. Even though Gingrich has faded away, there is no sign of this abating.

[Clintonfatigued]

The closeness of Virginia recently is that it's becoming Florida-ized. The suburbs of Washington D.C., collectively known as Northern Virginia, are filled up with government workers and northern migrants and rapidly growing. Clinton and Gore comfortably won that part of the state. The rest of the state (like northern Florida) is still recognizeable southern in character, and (sans black voters) gave Bush a large majority. Look for a repeat of that pattern in 2004.

[Clintonfatigued]

Bush will improve his showing in New York, but not enough to win outright. The Archie Bunker types who lived in NYC are largely gone. Upstate New York leans Republican, but is going through a long and major recession. And Long Island is experiencing immigration from NYC liberals who are taking their voting habits with them.