Replies

In 2004, national security is again a major issue, with the War on Terror being as prominent as the Cold War once was. John Kerry is promising to roll back the Bush tax cuts and, even more importantly,

True, but I don't think it's enough.

One other major factor in the burbs is simply demographics. Although it's been awhile since I saw the census reports, some of the Philly burbs(Montgomery I think) have a sizable minority population. In Oakland County here, that's a lot of the shift. Southfield is now 56% black. Oak Park is over 50% black and both are growing rapidly with Detroit refugees. A lot of the old Reaganites there are also moving further out west or North.

Add Wilmington to the Delaware Phily burbs, and Bush will need to be perfect to win there.

"Although it's been awhile since I saw the census reports, some of the Philly burbs(Montgomery I think) have a sizable minority population."

You must be thinking of the Delaware County suburbs of Chester City, Chester Township and Yeadon Borough. The Montco suburb with the highest black percentage is Norristown Borough, and it's only like 30%-35% black. Montco is nowhere near as Democrat-trending as Southern Oakland County (the more Democratic areas of Montco are similar to West Bloomfield---lots of rich Jewish voters and other limousine liberals).

"Add Wilmington to the Delaware Phily burbs, and Bush will need to be perfect to win there."

Delaware is like a microcosm of SE PA. Inner-city Wilmington is like Philly, part of suburban Wilmington is like marginal Montco, Bucks and Delaware Counties, another part of the suburbs are like GOP-leaning Chester and Berks Counties and the two southern rural counties in DE are like Lehigh and Northampton counties, but more Republican. It won't take a "perfect storm" for Bush to carry Delaware; he doesn't need to return to Reagan-style landslides in the suburbs, since the inner-city Wilmington vote is a smaller percentage of the vote than in the 1980s, just get 57% or so in the suburbs. It's a lot like your home state---Republicans don't need 65% in Oakland and 60% in Macomb anymore since Detroit doesn't count for as many votes nowadays.