Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Four

Various

[skip2myloo]

How can New York elect Schumer/Clinton and also 60% for Bush.

How can we explain South Dakota and Daschle ??

[Neets]

ECB Installment FOUR Ping.

[AntiGuv]

New York was 60% for Gore. That is a typo.

[Neets]

Ping

[not-alone]

great work

[rhombus]

New York was 60% for Gore. That is a typo.

I have a dream that it would go for Bush but alas, the Empire State is now firmly the Communist State.

[tphil913]

Knowing how NY determines its electoral votes, I'd have to say that your analysis of how New is going to go in the presidential election somewhat meaningless, unfortunately.

In New York, our electors are determined by our Assembly. They pick one elector for each district, and then the electors get together and cast their vote. The one who gets the majority of the votes gets the entire state.

Now here's the kicker: The electors do not have to vote based on the vote of their district. They can look at the results and follow the popular vote, but they can also vote ofr the best dressed, or the biggest ears as far as our election laws care.

IOW New Yorkers, your vote really doesn't mean anything when it comes to a Presidential election.

What would be much more interesting and useful in your analysis would be how each state picks it's electors, how they vote (Must follow their district, free for all, etc), and if the state is a "winner take all" state or not.

You might even be able to tell from that data whether a single large population center might unduly shift a state towards one candidate or not (Eg: NYC determines who New York goes to; Upstate NY is pretty much useless for determining political leanings).

[prisoner6]

Thanks Dales! I've been busy and missed the earlier installements so I have to go back and check 'em out. When I was putting a newscast together the other day I ran across information from DE that indicated a >slight< lean to W. I'll look backa nd see if I can dig up the atribution.

Then there was that redstates/bluestates thing the other day as well. I dodn't look closely but it seems to me flyover was pretty much W's with only the NE and NW for Kerry. I can't recal how they called DE but it seems to me it was a W state as well.

prisoner6

[The G Man]

Good stuff, Dales. Thanks for your efforts.

[Dales]

Did you know I am originally from New York?

Did you know that the electors have gone as would be indicated by the vote every single time going as far back as the days of the New Deal (and possibly further)?

[alisasny]

I wouldnt put NY for the rat just yet. The convention is going to do wonders to Bush popularity and NY hates to vote for losers ....

Also the timing of the convention will allow Bush to actually campaign in NY after the convention...he will have a lot of money to do so : ) with plenty of support from RUDY : ) right around the 911 anniversary : )


I think it will be very close : )

[commish]

Good work Dales. Don't listen to the perfectionists and what-ifers. This is a good starting point and will help indicate where we need to do the most work.

The cool thing is you have already shot the Dems biggest bullets and they still only lead by 5 with lots of Red states left to cover.

[Texas2step]

Excellent Dales, thanks for the work! As we say in Texas, 'preciate ya.

[ken5050]

Hey, guy...you da man..as always....please put me on you ping list....

[kayak]

Thanks for the ping. Please see #15.

[Neets]

A prettyplease to me will put you on the list.

How are ya toots?

Thanks Kay.

[Chances Are]

Is it just me, or is Delaware not on your summary table??? Just want to know...

CA....

[AuH2ORepublican]

Nice job, as usual, but I have one major complaint. NO WAY should Delaware be "Strong for Dems." Delaware moved towards the Dems in the 1990s, as did most suburban areas in the NE, because (i) national security was not deemed to be important anymore because the Cold War ended, (ii) after a decade of tax cuts by Republicans, taxes were low by historical standards and Democrats were running on keeping taxes about the same (and Clinton even promised a middle class tax cut), and (iii) the vacuum created by the absense of these two important issues from the national radar led to voters focusing on social issues such as abortion, guns and the environment, and in Delaware (at least in the heavily populated northern part, which are Philly suburbs) this moved voters to the Democrats. In 2004, national security is again a major issue, with the War on Terror being as prominent as the Cold War once was. John Kerry is promising to roll back the Bush tax cuts and, even more importantly, Bush is wisely framing the issue as "unless Congress makes the tax cuts permanent, your taxes will be raised automatically." And not only have the War on Terror and Kerry's promise to raise taxes made social issues less important in 2004 than they were in 1992, 1996 or 2000, but for once the prevailing social issue---gay marriage---is one where suburban voters in the NE agree with the GOP. So I would make Delaware "slight Democrat" for now, although I have a feeling that it may move into the "toss-up" category during the race.

[Naomi4]

You misread it. NY went for Gore by 60%