Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Four

Utah and Wyoming are obvious. I think Bush will cut the margins in New York, it still will be a solid democrat win there. I think at best, he cuts the margin of loss from 24% to 12%. I think 55% democrat. Somewhat like California - simply a numbers game.

I think Delaware is going more and more dem, much like the Philly burbs. Wilmington is solid Dem as well. The GOP'ers that win there seem to be more liberal too.(Mike Castle)

As for Virginia, I expect this to be tougher and tougher as the years go on with the beltway growth, as well as some regional public infighting within the party over tax issues. Still a GOP leaning area though since the Tidewater and rural areas still blocks out Arlington and Alexandria. Bush won Fairfax County as well.

In 2004, national security is again a major issue, with the War on Terror being as prominent as the Cold War once was. John Kerry is promising to roll back the Bush tax cuts and, even more importantly,

True, but I don't think it's enough.

One other major factor in the burbs is simply demographics. Although it's been awhile since I saw the census reports, some of the Philly burbs(Montgomery I think) have a sizable minority population. In Oakland County here, that's a lot of the shift. Southfield is now 56% black. Oak Park is over 50% black and both are growing rapidly with Detroit refugees. A lot of the old Reaganites there are also moving further out west or North.

Add Wilmington to the Delaware Phily burbs, and Bush will need to be perfect to win there.

We'll see. I agree with most of what you wrote (notice my writeup on the background for it) but until I see some evidence that the numbers are going to back up my suspicions, I am taking the prudent step of keeping it as a worst case scenerio.

Once I get all 50 states done, then what I do is once a week update the states which have new polls released. The designations can and will change. I suspect Delaware's is one which will.

"Although it's been awhile since I saw the census reports, some of the Philly burbs(Montgomery I think) have a sizable minority population."

You must be thinking of the Delaware County suburbs of Chester City, Chester Township and Yeadon Borough. The Montco suburb with the highest black percentage is Norristown Borough, and it's only like 30%-35% black. Montco is nowhere near as Democrat-trending as Southern Oakland County (the more Democratic areas of Montco are similar to West Bloomfield---lots of rich Jewish voters and other limousine liberals).

"Add Wilmington to the Delaware Phily burbs, and Bush will need to be perfect to win there."

Delaware is like a microcosm of SE PA. Inner-city Wilmington is like Philly, part of suburban Wilmington is like marginal Montco, Bucks and Delaware Counties, another part of the suburbs are like GOP-leaning Chester and Berks Counties and the two southern rural counties in DE are like Lehigh and Northampton counties, but more Republican. It won't take a "perfect storm" for Bush to carry Delaware; he doesn't need to return to Reagan-style landslides in the suburbs, since the inner-city Wilmington vote is a smaller percentage of the vote than in the 1980s, just get 57% or so in the suburbs. It's a lot like your home state---Republicans don't need 65% in Oakland and 60% in Macomb anymore since Detroit doesn't count for as many votes nowadays.

About Delaware: starting in 1996, there has been a growing urban-'Rat/rural-Republican split in the nation. The state of Delaware is dominated by Wilmington and its suburbs. In 1996, all major metropolitan areas in the northeast (New England/Middle Atlantic states) had a negative reaction to Newt Gingrich and a pronounced trend to the 'Rats. Even though Gingrich has faded away, there is no sign of this abating.

The closeness of Virginia recently is that it's becoming Florida-ized. The suburbs of Washington D.C., collectively known as Northern Virginia, are filled up with government workers and northern migrants and rapidly growing. Clinton and Gore comfortably won that part of the state. The rest of the state (like northern Florida) is still recognizeable southern in character, and (sans black voters) gave Bush a large majority. Look for a repeat of that pattern in 2004.

Bush will improve his showing in New York, but not enough to win outright. The Archie Bunker types who lived in NYC are largely gone. Upstate New York leans Republican, but is going through a long and major recession. And Long Island is experiencing immigration from NYC liberals who are taking their voting habits with them.

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