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Knowing how NY determines its electoral votes, I'd have to say that your analysis of how New is going to go in the presidential election somewhat meaningless, unfortunately.

In New York, our electors are determined by our Assembly. They pick one elector for each district, and then the electors get together and cast their vote. The one who gets the majority of the votes gets the entire state.

Now here's the kicker: The electors do not have to vote based on the vote of their district. They can look at the results and follow the popular vote, but they can also vote ofr the best dressed, or the biggest ears as far as our election laws care.

IOW New Yorkers, your vote really doesn't mean anything when it comes to a Presidential election.

What would be much more interesting and useful in your analysis would be how each state picks it's electors, how they vote (Must follow their district, free for all, etc), and if the state is a "winner take all" state or not.

You might even be able to tell from that data whether a single large population center might unduly shift a state towards one candidate or not (Eg: NYC determines who New York goes to; Upstate NY is pretty much useless for determining political leanings).

Did you know I am originally from New York?

Did you know that the electors have gone as would be indicated by the vote every single time going as far back as the days of the New Deal (and possibly further)?