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Support stimulated by especially high interest among DemocratsPRINCETON, NJ -- In a hypothetical presidential contest, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leads President George W. Bush by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 55% to 43%, while North Carolina Sen. John Edwards leads Bush by 10 points, 54% to 44%. According to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, these figures represent a significant improvement in the Democratic candidates' strength from 10 days ago, when Bush had a one-point lead over Kerry and a four-point lead over Edwards. At the end of January, Kerry enjoyed a seven-point lead and Edwards a one-point lead.
The current poll, conducted Feb. 16-17, finds a much smaller change among registered than among likely voters. Kerry's current lead among registered voters is five percentage points, 51% to 46%, up from one point 10 days ago, but identical to the lead measured at the end of last month. A CBS News poll conducted Feb.12-15 also found a five-point lead among registered voters, 48% for Kerry to 43% for Bush. An ABC News/Washington Post poll of registered voters conducted Feb. 10-11 found Kerry leading Bush by nine points, 52% to 43%. These results suggest little change in registered voters' preferences between Kerry and Bush over the past several weeks. Similarly, Edwards and Bush are essentially tied in the current poll among registered voters, as they were in a late January poll. Ten days ago, Bush enjoyed a six-point lead over Edwards among registered voters.
The larger fluctuation Gallup found among likely voters probably reflects the ebb and flow of news stories about the Democratic primaries, which in turn can affect the relative number of Democrats or Republicans in the "likely voter" pool at any given point in time. During a period of intense coverage of Democratic primaries and caucuses, as occurred during the New Hampshire primary and more recently in anticipation of the Wisconsin primary, Democrats become especially interested in following the campaign -- a measure that boosts their chances of being included in the Gallup "likely voter" model. This is an unusual situation. Republicans are disproportionately likely to be likely voters in most situations, which has historically given them an advantage on Election Day. It will be important to see if the Democrats maintain their current level of intense interest in the campaign, and thus a higher probability of voting, after the primary season is over and a nominee has been firmly determined. Over the same period of time -- between the New Hampshire and Wisconsin primaries -- Bush's job approval rating has remained essentially stable, ranging between 49% and 52%. Thus, the changes in the horse-race figures would appear to reflect more the changing likelihood of Democrats turning out to vote than a fundamental change in the public's perceptions of Bush. Kerry Holds Overwhelming Lead Among Democrats The poll confirms the front-runner status of Kerry over all of his Democratic opponents, as he receives support from 65% of registered Democrats nationally (including those who lean to the Democratic Party). Edwards receives just 19% support and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean 8%.
The current poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday, and was thus completed for the most part before results of the Wisconsin primary were known. It is possible that Edwards' unexpectedly strong second-place finish in Wisconsin may change the dynamics of the race, but he obviously has a long way to go to overcome Kerry's lead nationally. Even among Democratic voters living in the nine Super Tuesday states holding primaries on March 2, the poll shows Kerry leading with an average of 63% support, followed by Edwards (9%), Dean (7%), civil rights activist Al Sharpton (4%), and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1%). Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,006 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 16-17, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 568 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The "likely voter" model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted to match this assumption. For results based on the sample of 898 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 426 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. 2. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]? 2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?
3. If North Carolina Senator John Edwards were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Edwards, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]? 3A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Edwards, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?
5. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [ROTATED:Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich] BASED ON 426 DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE
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