Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Kerry's wins force rivals into desperation mode The plan: Cherry-pick races, await slip-up
Star-Ledger wire services | Thursday, February 05, 2004 | JOHN HASSELL ,Star-Ledger Staff

Posted on 02/05/2004 4:42:51 AM PST by Liz

The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is quickly shaping up as two separate contests: the battle among John Kerry's rivals to emerge as his chief competitor, and Kerry's struggle to keep the pack at bay.

It is a situation reminiscent of last year, when Howard Dean was dominating the field and opponents fought to become the Anti-Dean. But there is a difference: Kerry is steadily piling up delegates and would have to be stopped soon if at all.

"Every win Kerry has now, and every indication his base is broadening, makes it tougher for anyone else," said Russell Hemenway, a veteran Democratic fund-raiser based in New York. "The window of opportunity is narrowing."

The senator from Massachusetts won primary contests in five of seven states Tuesday night. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark have the strongest claim to oppose him after single-state wins. Dean, who has gone 0-9 so far, has a steeper hill to climb.

With each ballot test that comes and goes, however, Kerry's position becomes more formidable. No major party candidate since the emergence of the modern primary system in 1968 has crossed as many hurdles as Kerry and lost the party nod.

His opponents will try to make history with a risky strategy of cherry-picking states over the next few weeks on the way to Super Tuesday on March 2. The idea is simple: Trip the front-runner enough times and maybe he'll fall.

"It's called the late-late strategy," said Ross K. Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University. "It's the kind of plan the guys who are behind put together, because it represents the only hope they have."

The most extreme example of this tactic came in 1976, Baker said, when Democrat Frank Church hit the trail late and designated Nebraska as the place where he would stop Jimmy Carter's steamrolling campaign. The Idaho senator won Nebraska and a few other Western primaries, but it wasn't enough.

"It didn't work," Baker said. "Carter's momentum was so far advanced that no one could stop him. This idea of hanging back and trying to pick your shots doesn't seem to translate into more than an asterisk at the party conventions."

Making the challenge especially difficult for Kerry's rivals is this year's front-loaded calendar, which builds steadily over the next month toward Super Tuesday, when 1,151 of the 2,162 delegates needed to claim the nomination will be at stake on one day.

The schedule leaves limited room for dramatic reversals, but each of the second-tier candidates has mapped out a plan designed to propel him into a one-on-one race with Kerry, in the hope the front- runner then will stumble.

Edwards, fresh from his victory in South Carolina, sought support in two other Southern states yesterday, eyeing the contests in Tennessee and Virginia next Tuesday as his best opportunities to stay afloat.

"This is a very fluid race. It looks like it's narrowed down to two or maybe three candidates," Edwards told reporters after a rally at the Orpheum Theater in Memphis, Tenn. "And I think if it's two, it's myself and Senator Kerry."

Edwards was giving less attention to two states that vote on Saturday but where he has spent little time: Michigan and Washington. He planned a trip to Michigan but nothing to the Pacific Northwest.

Clark, an Arkansas native who won the Oklahoma primary Tuesday, was also skipping this weekend's contests. Like Edwards, the former general is seeking to cast himself as the Democrats' Southern alternative.

Looking ahead, Clark will go head-to-head with Edwards in Tennessee and Virginia, with a special focus on Tennessee. In fact, the two men's campaign press buses were parked next to each other at a Memphis hotel yesterday morning.

The danger for Edwards and Clark in the Southern contests is a split decision, a result that surely would benefit Kerry. By staying in the South, they also undercut their criticism of Kerry as a regional candidate with limited national appeal.

"They can take their potshots at Kerry from their sandbags on the Mason-Dixon Line, but that only underscores the fact that Kerry is the only candidate to win in several areas of the country," said Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University in Washington, D.C.

The challenges facing Edwards and Clark may be nothing compared with those facing Dean, who will try to win Washington state on Saturday, Maine on Sunday and Wisconsin on Feb. 17. The former Vermont governor is low on money and winless thus far, a perilous combination.

Money, which tends to flow to front-runners, takes on added importance as the campaign approaches the 10 contests on Super Tuesday, when candidates have to compete in the nation's most expensive markets, New York and California.

Highlighting the plight of the underdogs, Edwards had to take time off from the campaign trail last night to attend a fund-raiser in Hasbrouck Heights, where he hoped to raise $50,000 from a crowd of 50 to 100 supporters. (Dean, originally scheduled to appear tomorrow at a fund-raiser in the Elizabeth home of state Sen. Raymond Lesniak, decided to stay in Washington state; Gov. James E. McGreevey agreed to appear on Dean's behalf.)

Kerry, meanwhile, is the only candidate with the luxury of running a national campaign. Yesterday he promised to continue his strategy of relentless travel and outreach to Democrats in every region of the country.

"I'm going everywhere," he said. "That's the way I've run so far and that's the way I'm going to continue."

Star-Ledger wire services contributed to this report.


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; allanlichtman; clark; dean; edwards; johnkerry
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041 next last
With each ballot test that comes and goes, however, Kerry's position becomes more formidable. No major party candidate since the emergence of the modern primary system in 1968 has crossed as many hurdles as Kerry and lost the party nod.
1 posted on 02/05/2004 4:42:52 AM PST by Liz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Liz
The interesting thing about this race is it's base simplicity. And I do mean base. The Democrats don't give a whit about positions or philosophies - only whether candidate X can beat Bush. So as some gather in one particular corner - the rest of the fluid and lowest-level seeking 'Rats immediately gravitate there - upsetting the boat - and hopefully sinking them by November.
2 posted on 02/05/2004 5:11:46 AM PST by ctonious
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Liz
I think Clarke specifically calling Kerry a communist and anti American due to the crap Kerry has been pulling over the last 30 years would change the face of the race.

No one is willing to take on the party apparatus. That's why this primary is meaningless. Annoint Kerry already, move the convention up to March and let the campaigning begin.
3 posted on 02/05/2004 5:11:56 AM PST by EQAndyBuzz (Gore Lost! Deal with it!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Liz
Ketchup Boy, Version 4.0

You say you served in Viet Nam,
My question is which side?
You pulled ahead in Iowa,
Hope you enjoy the ride.
Dean is toast and some dropped out,
But you don’t have a chance.
Even if you get to run,
We will not let you dance.
The democrats might pick you,
To lead their commie band.
But we will fight to keep you out,
You must not lead this land.

Conspiracy Guy 4/5/04

4 posted on 02/05/2004 5:23:00 AM PST by Conspiracy Guy (This tagline is made from 100% virtual material. Do not remove under penalty of law.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Liz
Well I guess it is up to Bill and Hill to torpedo him now or during the general election
5 posted on 02/05/2004 5:30:06 AM PST by uncbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Liz
This is funny.

JFKerry is the new Mikael Dukaucus. You'll see Johny riding in a tank in October.

Bush blowout ahead. 45 states.

Yep, 45 states Bush. If Nader runs, it will be 46. You read it here first.
6 posted on 02/05/2004 5:49:05 AM PST by AlbertWang
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Liz
Clark is not an Arkansas native. Like Hillary, he is a Chicago native who later moved to Arkansas (in his case, as a child rather than as an adult).
7 posted on 02/05/2004 6:19:24 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Conspiracy Guy
Another buet.
As a codicil I would add.

You are no new Dukakis
But you carried long his hod
You fail to even amuse us
No matter how hard you prod

We find you very taxing
and not just of our wealth
You'll never be relaxing
and none will toast to your health

Go back to Massachusetts
and pasture your sorry line
where no one would give two -----
how you passed your time.
8 posted on 02/05/2004 8:21:04 AM PST by .cnI redruM (Vae victis! - [woe to the vanquished].)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: ctonious
We already see damage control taking front seat on the mass homosexual marriage issue.

They have the interview with kerry stating he "personally" opposes homosexual marriage. Will he "personally" oppose raising my taxes as he raises them?

Will he "personally" oppose asking for a permission slip to defend the USA as he begs france at the UN?
9 posted on 02/05/2004 9:35:25 AM PST by longtermmemmory (Vote!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Conspiracy Guy
That's great.
10 posted on 02/05/2004 10:52:02 AM PST by Liz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Liz
The Clintons will never let the Democrat Candidate win in 2004. I can't wait to see how this election destroys either the Democrat Candidate, Kerry, or the Clinton's stranglehold on the party.

11 posted on 02/05/2004 10:57:42 AM PST by Fishface
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: .cnI redruM
Well that stands buy itself. Just add a title.

CG
12 posted on 02/05/2004 2:35:03 PM PST by Conspiracy Guy (This tagline is made from 100% virtual material. Do not remove under penalty of law.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Liz
Thanks
13 posted on 02/05/2004 2:35:23 PM PST by Conspiracy Guy (This tagline is made from 100% virtual material. Do not remove under penalty of law.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Verginius Rufus
Clark is not an Arkansas native. Like Hillary, he is a Chicago native who later moved to Arkansas (in his case, as a child rather than as an adult).

Interesting. He is running his "poor boy from Arkansas" ad here in TN right now.

14 posted on 02/05/2004 2:39:17 PM PST by canyon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Liz
Three words to defeat Kerry:

"Dukakis' Lieutenant Governor"
15 posted on 02/05/2004 2:41:56 PM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Salvation; MeekOneGOP
Three words to defeat Kerry: "Dukakis' Lieutenant Governor"

Let's ask some of FR'sr graphic geniuses to put Kerry's face on this pic. LOL.

"Memorable Moments in Dumbocrat Loser's History."
Dumbocrat Dukakis in tank, the pic that lost an election.

16 posted on 02/05/2004 2:51:22 PM PST by Liz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Liz; Registered
Heh, heh. Paging Registered.
17 posted on 02/05/2004 3:13:02 PM PST by gridlock (BARKEEP: Why the long face? HORSE: Ha ha, old joke. BARKEEP: I was talking to John Kerry!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Liz
hehe ! Noted ! Thanks.

I'll see what I can come up with ...


18 posted on 02/05/2004 6:11:33 PM PST by MeekOneGOP (Check out this HILARIOUS story !! haha!: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1060580/posts)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Liz; Salvation; gridlock; onyx; autoresponder; PhilDragoo; potlatch; MEG33; Grampa Dave; ...
Well, here goes nuttin' ...

F-Troop John on the campaign road ...

Any comments, suggestions, criticisms are welcomed.


19 posted on 02/07/2004 12:56:19 PM PST by MeekOneGOP (Check out this HILARIOUS story !! haha!: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1060580/posts)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: MeekOneGOP
Change the "F" to "Effin'".
20 posted on 02/07/2004 1:03:12 PM PST by johniegrad
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson