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A Few of FR's Finest....Every Day...02-05-04....A Massive Breakdown in Intel?
JohnHuang2; Aquamarine; Billie | JohnHuang2

Posted on 02/04/2004 9:46:52 PM PST by Aquamarine

Edited on 02/04/2004 10:46:46 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]

A Few of FR's Finest ....Every Day
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...





A Massive Breakdown in Intel?

by JohnHuang2




President Bush, affirming he wants to know how "we can do better in this war against terror," announced Monday he would appoint an outside commission to probe pre-war intelligence on Iraq, specifically, why no biological or chemical weapons have been found, and to assess the quality of U.S. intelligence generally. The panel will be styled after the Warren Commission. (Was Bush the lone gunman in Iraq, as Democrats charge? Or were there allies like Britain and Australia behind the grassy knoll?)
Democrats had been pushing for a full Iraq probe on WMD (wait, isn't that what we're doing there now?), demanding a probe of information used for attacking Iraq. (While we're at it, how about a Blue-Ribbon Commission probe of information used for attacking Bush?) They want to know the tragic intel failures tragically leading up to U.S. victory in Iraq last April (these questions aren't frivolous -- this war nearly claimed the life of Saddam! -- see angry Democrats).
What gaps in C.I.A. intelligence led Saddam to think he had Weapons of Mass Destruction? David Kay, former U.S. weapons chief in Iraq, says a massive breakdown in U.S. intelligence was the problem. This massive intelligence breakdown was so massive, it caused all of Saddam's top scientists to massively dupe Saddam into thinking he had unconventional weapons. Kay, who quit his post last Friday, says these top scientists feared Saddam intensely. That's why they intensely duped him and intensely stole from him. They pocketed the money Saddam paid them to cook up WMD, laughing all the way to the bank. Chemical Alli? Dr. Germ? Mrs. Anthrax? Ha! Guilty of no more than petty theft. No chemicals, no germs, no anthrax here. Building on this incredibly compelling theory, Kay notes Saddam's top scientists, now in U.S. custody (thanks to Bush's failed post-war planning), are, shockingly, unwilling to confess involvement in WMD programs -- i.e., unwilling to *out* themselves as war criminals -- which proves there were no war criminals in Iraq and Saddam had no WMD. Kay says the hunt for WMD wasn't even finished when he quit, which is why his report is so reliable, and there's no better time than now to leap to conclusions, to this final verdict: There were no WMD. Sen. John F. Kerry says the War on Terror should be waged on law enforcement grounds (so perhaps if Bush had obtain proper search warrants he'd have found WMD).
Clearly, gaps in intelligence led C.I.A. to file spurious reports on innocent dictators (that's just so wrong! There must be a better system to safeguard dictators) and Bush to make half-cocked statements like the following: "Saddam must not be allowed to threaten his neighbors or the world with nuclear arms, poison gas or biological weapons...(Saddam) presents a clear and present danger to the stability of the Persian Gulf and the safety of people everywhere...if we had delayed for even a matter of days from (the U.N. report), we would have given Saddam more time to disperse his forces and protect his weapons (of mass destruction)."
Oh, wait, that was Clinton in '98, ordering military action.
With this new commission, to be set up by Executive Order shortly, Democrats accuse Bush of launching a full-court press to scapegoat the C.I.A., which Democrats charge provided faulty intelligence, by claiming the C.I.A. provided faulty intelligence. Democrats are convinced Saddam was wrongly accused -- that he was not armed with WMD, rendering the invasion unjustified. Democrats also accuse Reagan and Rumsfeld of arming Saddam with WMD, rendering the invasion unjustified. (We gave Saddam those weapons -- and he didn't have them, too! The gassing of Kurds was just a case of not having your WMD and using it, too.)
Democrats, coming undone like Janet Jackson's outfit during halftime, complain that a report won't be filed until after the elections -- that Bush is trying to delay things. Hmmm, I'm not too sure I buy that. If Bush were trying to delay things, he'd call for a U.N. mandate and 12 years to comply. Another charge is that Bush, who accused Saddam of hiding WMD pre-invasion, is trying to hide something himself. Hmmm, again not too sure about that either. Knowing what we know now, if Bush were trying to hide something -- indeed, keep it from ever being uncovered -- wouldn't he appoint David Kay to find it? Kay, who couldn't detect a hooker at a brothel, would be appointed Commission Chairman. Long before the probe is complete, Kay quits his post and declares, 'We were all wrong' about Bush hyping intelligence. End of story.
Bush's move to seek an inquiry on why no weapons were found has prompted ally Britain to seek an inquiry on why no weapons were found. Australia is mulling an inquiry on why no weapons were found. (After the Janet Jackson 'costume reveal' Sunday, CBS wants an inquiry on why a 'weapon' WAS FOUND and shown on live TV).
Okay, that wasn't nice. I deeply regret my crass remark which occurred in the prior paragraph during this essay halftime. My remark was unrehearsed, unplanned and completely unintentional. (I hate when that happens!) That remark did not conform to "JohnHuang2" standards, and I would like to apologize to anyone who was offended.

Oh, incidentally, while we're on the subject of apologies, if Democrats are waiting for some 'We were all wrong' apology from Bush on Iraq, forget it. For ridding the world of Saddam's regime and making America safer, Bush has nothing to apologize for.




Happy Birthday, President Reagan!

by JohnHuang2
February 6, 2002



Ronald Reagan is the reason I became interested in politics in the first place.
I didn't know much about 'issues' back then, beyond what I knew from high school; monetary policy, the Laffer curve, M1 -- none of that stuff particularly interested me. Yet.
Back in those days, I shared a typical cynicism for politics in general.
'They're all crooks', my dad would tell me. 'Every last one of them'.
Ronald Reagan changed all that.
There's something so utterly different about him. Something so honest, so genuine, so real. Intuitively, you know you could trust him. Believing in him comes so naturally.
It's hard to believe more than twenty years have slipped by since that grand and glorious night of triumph. The former governor of California -- written off by the media as a Hollywood joke and a loser-- had swept the nation in a landslide, crushing incumbent President Jimmy Carter, 51%-40%. In electoral votes, Reagan's victory was truly colossal: 489-49.
The Reagan revolution was born -- and America never looked back.
Candidate Reagan promised a renaissance; President Reagan delivered.
The 'Laffer curve' burst onto the scene -- and into the lexicon. The presstitutes derided the idea with burlesque contempt. To the pompous elite set, who clung to Keynesianism like some pagan religion, the notion of lowering taxes was itself anathema. But the Laffer curve went beyond that, promising, if implemented, to revive the economy, kill inflation while raising revenues.
'Sheer lunacy! Unvarnished buffoonery!', the liberals scoffed.
They mockingly dubbed it "Reaganomics".
Eight years later, guess who had the last laugh?
Not only did Reagan put the kabosh on the Carter recession, he sparked the longest peace-time expansion in American history. Revenues, contrary to the naysayers, exploded as lower taxes restored incentives to work, save and invest. Inflation? Ha! Are you kidding? A little dose of "Reaganonics" and poof! It was gone. Interest rates -- as high as 22% under Carter -- followed suit, plummeting back into single digits.
The "experts" had egg on their faces.
But Reagan's Presidency was more than just about economics. A lover of liberty, Reagan hated communism, and all the evil it represented. He spoke out against it at every opportunity, loudly, clearly, fervently -- even against the counsel of his closest advisors. "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down these walls!", Reagan thundered before a cheering crowd at the Brandenburg Gate. Bureaucrats from Foggy Bottom weren't too happy -- they kept trying to scratch out that line from his speech! They just didn't get it.
President Reagan loved freedom, passionately, fervidly, fiercely. His Presidency was a tribute to it. It's why he called the Soviet Union the Evil Empire, rightfully condemning its appalling record on human rights. The shilly-shally "establishment" had a conniption fit.
But President Reagan was also the quintessential optimist. He knew communism's days were numbered, turning the cherished policy of containment on its head.
At a Notre Dame commencement address in 1981, President Reagan, in these immortal words, confidently predicted communism's eventual demise:
"The years ahead will be great ones for our country, for the cause of freedom, and for the spread of civilization. The west will not contain communism, it will transcend communism. We will not bother to denounce it; we'll dismiss it as a sad, bizarre chapter in human history whose last pages are even now being written."
In less than a decade, those words were vindicated. The west went on to win the Cold War, with President Reagan leading the way. The critics, yet again, were wrong.
Small wonder why an overwhelming majority of Americans remember the Gipper so fondly.
President Reagan's poise and grace -- even under the most excruciating circumstances -- is the stuff of legends. Barely two months into his Presidency, an attempt was made on his life.
As the nation anxiously waited for word on the Gipper, his famous wit and charm was unflinching.
Reagan had just regained consciousness in the emergency ward at George Washington University Hospital, when he jokingly said to a nurse who was holding his hand: "Does Nancy know about us?"
"Honey, I forgot to duck", he told Nancy Reagan moments later.
He uttered his most memorable quip that day as he laid on the operating table just before surgery. Gazing up at his surgeons, he said: "Please tell me you're all Republicans".
Yep, that's the Gipper we all know and love.
Happy Birthday, President Reagan!



My two cents.. "JohnHuang2"












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1 posted on 02/04/2004 9:46:55 PM PST by Aquamarine
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To: ST.LOUIE1; Billie; dansangel; dutchess; Mama_Bear; FreeTheHostages; .45MAN; Aeronaut; Calpernia; ...
OK, everybody...here it is...the latest edition of
JohnHuang2!

....served with coffee and donuts!

2 posted on 02/04/2004 9:53:53 PM PST by Aquamarine
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To: Aquamarine
Good night, Aqua.

I'll pass on the donuts tomorrow morning. I can see the prices listed behind you and it's nothing less than highway robbery. :-)

3 posted on 02/04/2004 10:02:51 PM PST by The Thin Man
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To: The Thin Man
LOL! You don't miss a beat.
4 posted on 02/04/2004 10:04:31 PM PST by Aquamarine
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To: JohnHuang2


Excellent article, John!!
I would like to join you in wishing President Reagan a very Happy Birthday.
A President I will always remember with admiration and love.
Thank you.

5 posted on 02/04/2004 10:17:42 PM PST by JustAmy (God Bless our Troops, God Bless President Bush and God Bless America)
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To: Aquamarine


Wonderful presentation, Aqua.
Thank you for bringing us John's Two Cents.

6 posted on 02/04/2004 10:23:43 PM PST by JustAmy (God Bless our Troops, God Bless President Bush and God Bless America)
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To: Aquamarine; JohnHuang2
Two for the price of one on Reagan birthday eve. Cool!

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

Great selection on the graphics, Aqua. Looks like the DNC folks tried their luck with the jigsaw puzzle.

John, perhaps Kay would be well advised to have you write a resume for him since he's now one of the millions that have lost their jobs because of Bush.
7 posted on 02/04/2004 10:27:32 PM PST by Diver Dave
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To: Billie


Thank you for today's thread.
As always the Hostesses make the thread special.
It is wonderful, as always.

8 posted on 02/04/2004 10:32:46 PM PST by JustAmy (God Bless our Troops, God Bless President Bush and God Bless America)
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To: JohnHuang2
Another great piece of parlezvooin', John. You have a knack for exposing DNC idiocy, so decisively that nothing else need be said on the matters!
9 posted on 02/04/2004 10:40:46 PM PST by MHGinTN (If you can read this, you've had life support from someone. Promote life support for others.)
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To: JustAmy
Oh wow, thanks for the pretty bouquet! Had some trouble this time, we have a new computer that was playing tricks on me.
10 posted on 02/04/2004 10:40:47 PM PST by Aquamarine
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To: Diver Dave
Kay is doubletalker...not good.
11 posted on 02/04/2004 10:42:05 PM PST by Aquamarine
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To: The Thin Man
Good night TMan. :)

See ya tomorrow.

12 posted on 02/04/2004 10:44:04 PM PST by Aquamarine
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To: Aquamarine; JohnHuang2; Billie; Mama_Bear; dansangel; dutchess; deadhead; The Mayor; ST.LOUIE1; ...
Inspired by the coffee and goodies, and our hostess serving it, I hereby render my

'Dear John' Letter # 1,014:

C'mon, Johnny Boy - ya really canna blame tha Liberal Dems. Where's yer compassion, man?!
It is becoming apparent they are *victims* of Mad Brain Disease, fed so long with tainted information.

Everyone knows it causes memory loss, faulty remaining memory, paranoia, and often, borderline dementia.

Sad....so sad....they seek a cure in the voting booths of America, chewing chads frantically; by causing taxes to soar; through lowering moral values; and through undisguised loathing, especially in connection with anything vaguely resembling a Bush.

Pity them, no longer having Joycelyn Elders in as Surgeon General to confer upon this horrible disease a CDC Stamp of Approval for Super Special Benefits.

Why, think of all the reparations they could collect from us loathsome conservatives if it could be declarred we caused it in the first place??!! No doubt in the form of a new "Mad Brain Disease Tax" placed upon every voter who does not vote 'their way!'

Joining you, however, in your warm tribute to President Ronald Reagan, remembering well the 22% interest rates Jimmah Cahtah brought - still shuddering at the effect it had on us adults.....

The day he stood at the Berlin Wall and demanded it be brought down was a wonderful turning point in the Cold War, in which we were immersed so deeply.

America asks God to bless you and Mrs. Reagan.

Thanks for all the victories you brought us, Mr. President...

By the way, Johnny Boy, we owe you a *SALUTE* as

The Master of Trickledown Laughter

Hugs 'n stuff,

LadyX

13 posted on 02/04/2004 10:56:34 PM PST by LadyX (((( To God give praise and honor !! ))))
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To: Aquamarine
Wonderful presentation, Aquamarine!
Love the pledge graphic, too...:))

See you later today.

{{{{( Aquamarine }}}}}
14 posted on 02/04/2004 11:01:39 PM PST by LadyX (((( To God give praise and honor !! ))))
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To: LadyX
Well done, LadyX. Always enjoy your follow-up comments to My 2 Cents.
15 posted on 02/04/2004 11:03:48 PM PST by Diver Dave
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To: Diver Dave; Aquamarine; JohnHuang2
Thank you, Dave; and I, yours.

Here is something interesting from an article on President Reagan:

"The caption beneath Ronald Reagan's high school yearbook picture read, "Life is just one grand sweet song, so start the music."

For all its cloying sentimentality, the statement was quite remarkable coming from the son of an itinerant, alcoholic shoe salesman, a testament to the unflagging optimism that America came to expect from its 40th president.

Another quotation:

"In this land of dreams, no victory is beyond our reach, no glory will ever be too great."


Night, all.....
16 posted on 02/04/2004 11:09:28 PM PST by LadyX (((( To God give praise and honor !! ))))
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To: LadyX
Good evening, Lady.

It's great to see you tonight. I miss everyone when I can't get over to say hello!!

Have a happy Thursday.
17 posted on 02/04/2004 11:13:58 PM PST by JustAmy (God Bless our Troops, God Bless President Bush and God Bless America)
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To: Diver Dave
Excerpts from Kay's testimony:

KAY: Senator Warner, you're absolutely -- I think -- and I think I've said, but let me be absolutely clear about it -- Iraq was in clear and material violation of 1441. They maintained programs and activities, and they certainly had the intentions at a point to resume their program. So there was a lot they wanted to hide because it showed what they were doing that was illegal. I hope we find even more evidence of that.

WARNER: Part of that program were missiles; clearly, clearly, in defiance of the U.M. resolution in terms of range. They had the potential to incorporate in those warheads, although small quantities, nevertheless very lethal types of WMD. Am I not correct in that?

KAY: You're absolutely correct.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

KAY: Senator Warner, I think the world is far safer with the disappearance and the removal of Saddam Hussein. I have said I actually think this may be one of those cases where it was even more dangerous than we thought.

I think when we have the complete record you're going to discover that after 1998 it became a regime that was totally corrupt. Individuals were out for their own protection. And in a world where we know others are seeking WMD, the likelihood at some point in the future of a seller and a buyer meeting up would have made that a far more dangerous country than even we anticipated with what may turn out not to be a fully accurate estimate.

__________________________________________________________________

Saddam Hussein developed and used weapons of mass destruction; true?

KAY: Absolutely.

MCCAIN: He used them against the Iranians and the Kurds; just yes or no.

KAY: Oh, yes.

MCCAIN: OK.

And U.N. inspectors found enormous quantities of banned chemical and biological weapons in Iraq in the '90s.

KAY: Yes, sir.

MCCAIN: We know that Saddam Hussein had once a very active nuclear program.

KAY: Yes.

MCCAIN: And he realized and had ambitions to develop and use weapons of mass destruction.

KAY: Clearly.

MCCAIN: So the point is, if he were in power today, there is no doubt that he would harbor ambitions for the development and use of weapons of mass destruction. Is there any doubt in your mind?

KAY: There's absolutely no doubt. And I think I've said that, Senator.

MCCAIN: But you agree with the fundamental principle here that what we did was justified and enhance the security of the United States and the world by removing Saddam Hussein from power?

KAY: Absolutely.

MCCAIN: OK. That's important to establish, because now in this political season, those are attempting to be mixed that because we didn't find the weapons of mass destruction, therefore the conflict was not justified. That's why I think it's important to establish those salient facts.

Now, but obviously, we were wrong, as you said. Now, why were we wrong?

KAY: Senator, I wouldn't pretend that I know all the answers or even know all the questions to get at that.

KAY: I am convinced that that is the important forefront of the inquiry that, quite frankly, you must undertake.

I've got hypotheses of where I think things generically have occurred. I think we became almost addicted to the incredible amount of effort that UNSCOM and U.N. inspectors could produce on the scene and that flow of information...

MCCAIN: Including intelligence gained by the previous administration.

KAY: That's correct. And did not develop our own HUMINT sources there.

Now, this really goes back, quite frankly -- the change took place if you look at it goes back to the Carter administration, when, as a result of things that had occurred in the Vietnam area, essentially our HUMINT capability was spun down and we got in the habit of relying on intelligence collected by liaison services.

If a liaison -- an individual from another country, gets caught as a spy it doesn't make the front page of The Washington Post or New York Times, it's not politically embarrassing and, quite frankly, you don't have a dead American. So there are good reasons to do it.

More importantly, and things that I think you've got to worry about, we have all stressed, why didn't the intelligence community connect the dots prior to 9/11? It all looks very clear in retrospect.

Quite frankly, the most common problem you have with analysts is you do not want them to overanalyze the data. If there are only a few dots connected, maybe they don't belong connected.

I'm convinced in this area, partly because of Iraqi behavior -- to a large extent because of Iraqi behavior -- they cheated, they lied, we knew it, UNSCOM, the U.N. had caught them -- we got in the habit of new pieces of information accreted to this overall consensus view without challenging that consensus.

All I can say is if you read the total body of intelligence in the last 12 to 15 years that flowed on Iraq, I quite frankly think it would be hard to come to a conclusion other than Iraq was a gathering, serious threat to the world with regard to WMD.

SESSIONS: That was certainly, I think, on the heart and mind of the members of Congress. We just felt that it was so impossible they didn't exist.

Now, as your investigation went about, it strikes me that there has -- in the time building up to this final initiation of military action -- that the Iraqi individuals who may have been involved in weapons of mass destruction knew that their programs were the target of this action and that they were in violation of U.N. resolutions. And isn't it true they could have seen themselves as being subject to prosecution for war crimes?

KAY: Absolutely. And a number of those in custody are worried about that greatly. It's one reason they're not talking.

SESSIONS: So not being unclever, they would know and would have a real incentive to destroy every evidence that they had anything to do with weapons of mass destruction. So we could realistically expect many of the documents that would have shown all these actions are no longer in existence?

KAY: That's right, Senator. And that's why I referred to the -- there's probably a level of unresolvable ambiguity we're going to have to learn to live with about this program.


18 posted on 02/05/2004 3:40:25 AM PST by visualops (I'm still trying to figure out why kamikaze pilots wore helmets.)
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To: All
Hi all. How are we all doing?
19 posted on 02/05/2004 3:41:30 AM PST by knighthawk (Live today, there is no time to lose, because when tomorrow comes it's all just yesterday's blues)
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To: ST.LOUIE1; Aquamarine; Billie; dansangel; dutchess; Mama_Bear; FreeTheHostages; .45MAN; Aeronaut; ..
I live by faith in the Son of God, who loved me and gave Himself for me. —Galatians 2:20


Not the nails, but His wondrous love for me,
Kept my Lord on the cross of Calvary;
Oh, what power could hold Him there
All my sin and shame to bear!

God loves you as much as if you were His only child.

20 posted on 02/05/2004 4:21:47 AM PST by The Mayor (Be steadfast, immovable, . . . knowing that your labor is not in vain in the Lord.)
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