2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, February 2, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	77.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	20.0	0	55
Colorado	86.0	9	0
Connecticut	20.0	0	7
Delaware	42.5	0	3
District of Columbia	2.0	0	3
Florida	70.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	40.0	0	21
Indiana	89.0	11	0
Iowa	71.0	7	0
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	93.0	8	0
Louisiana	90.0	9	0
Maine	43.0	0	4
Maryland	2.0	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	55.0	17	0
Minnesota	54.0	10	0
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	71.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	75.0	5	0
New Hampshire	58.0	4	0
New Jersey	22.5	0	15
New Mexico	70.0	5	0
New York	21.0	0	31
North Carolina	84.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	78.0	20	0
Oklahoma	93.0	7	0
Oregon	60.0	7	0
Pennsylvania	60.0	21	0
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	85.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	89.0	11	0
Texas	95.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	7.0	0	3
Virginia	90.0	13	0
Washington	48.0	0	11
West Virginia	62.5	5	0
Wisconsin	61.5	10	0
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		355	183

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 355 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 183 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Conspiracy Guy]

Hope they are right. Did they do projections in previous election years?

CG

[Chi-townChief]

Nice but wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too soon.

[Vermont Lt]

If you are going to do a true probability, you would assign the electoral votes according to the probability--unlike the "real world" where the winner gets all.

That is, if the probability is 95% sure that Bush will win a state, then there is a 5% probability that the Dem will win. You would assign the wieght of the probability against the outcome.

If you do that, the results are similar, but not as rosy.

[curmudgeonII]

Hope they are right. Did they do projections in previous election years?

There are all sorts of projects as a national election nears. Every once in a while somebody gets it right.

[Tacis]

I don't know. Awarding South Dakota to Bush grossly underestimates the power of the dead Indian vote and Dashole's need to continue the revenue stream from his bag lady wife so he can pay the staff at his new DC mansion.

[Momaw Nadon]

Hope they are right. Did they do projections in previous election years?

I believe TradeSports.com got started in 2002.

[G.Mason]

The only realistic way for me to look at that projection list is to use it as a guide to tell me where not to spend my vacation money.

[goldstategop]

South Dakota has gone Republican in Presidential elections. For some reason it votes split ticket in the U.S Senate contest.

[Archie Bunker on steroids]

Bush has no prayer in Michigan or Pennsylvania. THose are the two grossest errors of the table I see. Both states have huge metro areas that more than cancel out the rural red zones. Both states trend more & more D every national election.

[UncleSamUSA]

As someone who lives in New York City and sees first hand how perceptions and beliefs have changed since 9/11, I can tell you that Bush has a MUCH better than 20% chance of winning NY's electoral votes.

It will still be a tough struggle, mind you, but this is definitely going to be an "in-play" state by the first Tuesday in November.

[tndarlin]

sees first hand how perceptions and beliefs have changed since 9/11,

I know what you are talking about.

At the Super Bowl party last night, our hosts are two people who voted for Nader in 2000. Now they are firmly behind Bush. The wife even wants to volunteer for the campaign.

[Momaw Nadon]

If you are going to do a true probability, you would assign the electoral votes according to the probability--unlike the "real world" where the winner gets all.

That is, if the probability is 95% sure that Bush will win a state, then there is a 5% probability that the Dem will win. You would assign the weight of the probability against the outcome.

If you do that, the results are similar, but not as rosy.

When the outcome is weighted according to the Electoral Votes of each state, President Bush has a 60.18% chance of being re-elected.

[Conspiracy Guy]

I know that I was just looking for a track record on them.

CG

[OneTimeLurker]

I think the odds on Ohio are pretty far out of whack too. Strong manufacturing base and Gore only lost by 3% and didn't campaign there. Also, 40% shot for Illinois is way too optimistic.

[Conspiracy Guy]

Too new to have a record then. I still hope they are right.

CG

[Archie Bunker on steroids]

I agree with you on both counts. The only other glaring mistake is the state of Washington...48%??? Heck no...Bush will lose by 10-15 pct points in that communist mecca.

[.cnI redruM]

I ran the numbers IAW w/ Vermont lt's ideas. This is not a good thing....

Bush Kerry
21 Jan04 342.00 197.00
26 Jan04 335.00 203.00
02 Feb04 324.00 214.00

[BlueNgold]

Safe states (these are pretty accurate):
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virgina, Wyoming
These total 217 electoral votes (need 270 to win)

Other close states in play: (also fairly accurate)
Arkansas, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, West Virgina, Wisconsin
These give us another 56 to put us ver the top at 273 EV

Among the Big 6 (CA, NY, TX, PA, FL, MI) 4 through 6 are still in play: PA, FL, and MI. Between them there are 65 EV at stake. We need to work hard in all 3 to get out the message, get out the vote, and bring home wins. Victories in these 3 will make this election a landslide and carry congressional coat-tails, and THAT is what we need to get our judges on the bench!