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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, February 2, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 02/02/2004 10:27:16 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
State |
% Chance of Bush Winning |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Dem Electoral Votes |
Alabama |
95.0 |
9 |
0 |
Alaska |
94.0 |
3 |
0 |
Arizona |
77.0 |
10 |
0 |
Arkansas |
70.0 |
6 |
0 |
California |
20.0 |
0 |
55 |
Colorado |
86.0 |
9 |
0 |
Connecticut |
20.0 |
0 |
7 |
Delaware |
42.5 |
0 |
3 |
District of Columbia |
2.0 |
0 |
3 |
Florida |
70.0 |
27 |
0 |
Georgia |
90.0 |
15 |
0 |
Hawaii |
13.0 |
0 |
4 |
Idaho |
95.0 |
4 |
0 |
Illinois |
40.0 |
0 |
21 |
Indiana |
89.0 |
11 |
0 |
Iowa |
71.0 |
7 |
0 |
Kansas |
91.5 |
6 |
0 |
Kentucky |
93.0 |
8 |
0 |
Louisiana |
90.0 |
9 |
0 |
Maine |
43.0 |
0 |
4 |
Maryland |
2.0 |
0 |
10 |
Massachusetts |
4.0 |
0 |
12 |
Michigan |
55.0 |
17 |
0 |
Minnesota |
54.0 |
10 |
0 |
Mississippi |
96.0 |
6 |
0 |
Missouri |
71.0 |
11 |
0 |
Montana |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Nebraska |
95.0 |
5 |
0 |
Nevada |
75.0 |
5 |
0 |
New Hampshire |
58.0 |
4 |
0 |
New Jersey |
22.5 |
0 |
15 |
New Mexico |
70.0 |
5 |
0 |
New York |
21.0 |
0 |
31 |
North Carolina |
84.0 |
15 |
0 |
North Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Ohio |
78.0 |
20 |
0 |
Oklahoma |
93.0 |
7 |
0 |
Oregon |
60.0 |
7 |
0 |
Pennsylvania |
60.0 |
21 |
0 |
Rhode Island |
5.0 |
0 |
4 |
South Carolina |
85.0 |
8 |
0 |
South Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Tennessee |
89.0 |
11 |
0 |
Texas |
95.0 |
34 |
0 |
Utah |
95.0 |
5 |
0 |
Vermont |
7.0 |
0 |
3 |
Virginia |
90.0 |
13 |
0 |
Washington |
48.0 |
0 |
11 |
West Virginia |
62.5 |
5 |
0 |
Wisconsin |
61.5 |
10 |
0 |
Wyoming |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Totals |
|
355 |
183 |
TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to
TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 355 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 183 Electoral Votes.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
To: Momaw Nadon
2
posted on
02/02/2004 10:28:01 AM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Hope they are right. Did they do projections in previous election years?
CG
3
posted on
02/02/2004 10:35:51 AM PST
by
Conspiracy Guy
(This tagline is made from 100% virtual material. Do not remove under penalty of law.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Nice but wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too soon.
To: Momaw Nadon
If you are going to do a true probability, you would assign the electoral votes according to the probability--unlike the "real world" where the winner gets all.
That is, if the probability is 95% sure that Bush will win a state, then there is a 5% probability that the Dem will win. You would assign the wieght of the probability against the outcome.
If you do that, the results are similar, but not as rosy.
5
posted on
02/02/2004 10:38:37 AM PST
by
Vermont Lt
(I am not from Vermont. I lived there for four years and that was enough.)
To: Conspiracy Guy
Hope they are right. Did they do projections in previous election years? There are all sorts of projects as a national election nears. Every once in a while somebody gets it right.
6
posted on
02/02/2004 10:39:56 AM PST
by
curmudgeonII
(Fight mental health or I'll kill you.)
To: Momaw Nadon
I don't know. Awarding South Dakota to Bush grossly underestimates the power of the dead Indian vote and Dashole's need to continue the revenue stream from his bag lady wife so he can pay the staff at his new DC mansion.
7
posted on
02/02/2004 10:41:47 AM PST
by
Tacis
To: Conspiracy Guy
Hope they are right. Did they do projections in previous election years? I believe TradeSports.com got started in 2002.
8
posted on
02/02/2004 10:42:37 AM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
The only realistic way for me to look at that projection list is to use it as a guide to tell me where not to spend my vacation money.
9
posted on
02/02/2004 10:44:13 AM PST
by
G.Mason
("The secret to success is knowing who to blame for your failures" - Old Democrat saying)
To: Tacis
South Dakota has gone Republican in Presidential elections. For some reason it votes split ticket in the U.S Senate contest.
10
posted on
02/02/2004 10:44:53 AM PST
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
To: Momaw Nadon
Bush has no prayer in Michigan or Pennsylvania. THose are the two grossest errors of the table I see. Both states have huge metro areas that more than cancel out the rural red zones. Both states trend more & more D every national election.
To: Momaw Nadon
As someone who lives in New York City and sees first hand how perceptions and beliefs have changed since 9/11, I can tell you that Bush has a MUCH better than 20% chance of winning NY's electoral votes.
It will still be a tough struggle, mind you, but this is definitely going to be an "in-play" state by the first Tuesday in November.
12
posted on
02/02/2004 10:48:40 AM PST
by
UncleSamUSA
(the land of the free and the home of the brave)
To: UncleSamUSA
sees first hand how perceptions and beliefs have changed since 9/11, I know what you are talking about.
At the Super Bowl party last night, our hosts are two people who voted for Nader in 2000. Now they are firmly behind Bush. The wife even wants to volunteer for the campaign.
13
posted on
02/02/2004 10:53:03 AM PST
by
tndarlin
To: Vermont Lt
If you are going to do a true probability, you would assign the electoral votes according to the probability--unlike the "real world" where the winner gets all. That is, if the probability is 95% sure that Bush will win a state, then there is a 5% probability that the Dem will win. You would assign the weight of the probability against the outcome.
If you do that, the results are similar, but not as rosy.
When the outcome is weighted according to the Electoral Votes of each state, President Bush has a 60.18% chance of being re-elected.
14
posted on
02/02/2004 10:53:13 AM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: curmudgeonII
I know that I was just looking for a track record on them.
CG
15
posted on
02/02/2004 10:56:11 AM PST
by
Conspiracy Guy
(This tagline is made from 100% virtual material. Do not remove under penalty of law.)
To: Archie Bunker on steroids
I think the odds on Ohio are pretty far out of whack too. Strong manufacturing base and Gore only lost by 3% and didn't campaign there. Also, 40% shot for Illinois is way too optimistic.
To: Momaw Nadon
Too new to have a record then. I still hope they are right.
CG
17
posted on
02/02/2004 10:57:03 AM PST
by
Conspiracy Guy
(This tagline is made from 100% virtual material. Do not remove under penalty of law.)
To: OneTimeLurker
I agree with you on both counts. The only other glaring mistake is the state of Washington...48%??? Heck no...Bush will lose by 10-15 pct points in that communist mecca.
To: Vermont Lt; Momaw Nadon
I ran the numbers IAW w/ Vermont lt's ideas. This is not a good thing....
Bush Kerry
21 Jan04 342.00 197.00
26 Jan04 335.00 203.00
02 Feb04 324.00 214.00
19
posted on
02/02/2004 11:07:21 AM PST
by
.cnI redruM
(Vae victis! - [woe to the vanquished].)
To: Momaw Nadon
Safe states (these are pretty accurate):
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virgina, Wyoming
These total 217 electoral votes (need 270 to win)
Other close states in play: (also fairly accurate)
Arkansas, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, West Virgina, Wisconsin
These give us another 56 to put us ver the top at 273 EV
Among the Big 6 (CA, NY, TX, PA, FL, MI) 4 through 6 are still in play: PA, FL, and MI. Between them there are 65 EV at stake. We need to work hard in all 3 to get out the message, get out the vote, and bring home wins. Victories in these 3 will make this election a landslide and carry congressional coat-tails, and THAT is what we need to get our judges on the bench!
20
posted on
02/02/2004 11:11:34 AM PST
by
BlueNgold
(Feed the Tree .....)
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