[UncleSamUSA]

As someone who lives in New York City and sees first hand how perceptions and beliefs have changed since 9/11, I can tell you that Bush has a MUCH better than 20% chance of winning NY's electoral votes.

It will still be a tough struggle, mind you, but this is definitely going to be an "in-play" state by the first Tuesday in November.

[tndarlin]

sees first hand how perceptions and beliefs have changed since 9/11,

I know what you are talking about.

At the Super Bowl party last night, our hosts are two people who voted for Nader in 2000. Now they are firmly behind Bush. The wife even wants to volunteer for the campaign.

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

going to be an "in-play" state by the first Tuesday in November.

Given that I AM a curmudgeon, I must point out that it is the first Tuesday AFTER the first Monday in November. It just means the election never falls on the first of the month. ;-)