2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Wednesday, January 21, 2003 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	83.0	10	0
Arkansas	72.0	6	0
California	27.0	0	55
Colorado	86.0	9	0
Connecticut	27.5	0	7
Delaware	42.5	0	3
District of Columbia	10.0	0	3
Florida	69.0	27	0
Georgia	92.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	43.0	0	21
Indiana	89.0	11	0
Iowa	72.5	7	0
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	93.0	8	0
Louisiana	90.0	9	0
Maine	47.5	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	12.5	0	12
Michigan	58.0	17	0
Minnesota	58.0	10	0
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	73.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	77.5	5	0
New Hampshire	63.0	4	0
New Jersey	27.5	0	15
New Mexico	71.5	5	0
New York	28.0	0	31
North Carolina	91.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	78.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.5	7	0
Oregon	62.0	7	0
Pennsylvania	63.0	21	0
Rhode Island	12.5	0	4
South Carolina	95.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	88.0	11	0
Texas	98.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	9.5	0	3
Virginia	92.5	13	0
Washington	48.0	0	11
West Virginia	62.5	5	0
Wisconsin	61.5	10	0
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		355	183

[waterstraat]

Very flawed.

This is not accurate at all. For example Michigan, which went for gore, cant even elect any republican candidate for a statewide office and now even has a democrat female governor. With its high unemployment rate, there is absolutely no chance at all it will go for bush. Same with other states with high unemployment.

Instead of polling people who have extra money to use to bet on sports, maybe you should make a projection of who is going to win by polling the people who lost their factories and jobs to asian free trade and who are now standing in unemployment lines in each state? Perhaps you might get different results.

[anniegetyourgun]

True. I guess we shall see. I hope you bring THIS thread back to life after the election!

[optik_b]

True, I'd bet everything in my possession that Bush won't win DC.

[optik_b]

He gave free prescription drugs to every old person.

[optik_b]

"Generally, political futures markets are very accurate because people are betting with their own money."

Not really. Odds merely tell you how people are betting. The object of the oddsmaker is to get 50% of the people betting on each side. So unless you have a lot of confidence in the gamblers than there is no reason to believe they are "very accurate"

[Jedi Master Yoda]

Bump!

[RinaseaofDs]

They elected Harris, for one. Jeb Bush got re-elected by 10 points, for another.

I think Florida is pretty safe.

[Peace will be here soon]

Missouri: Bush 73% of winning the state.

2000 Missouri Pres. election : Bush 50% Gore 47%. This state is as flip flopping as it gets. Don`t forget, it went for Clinton twice !! I think that number should be closer to 55%. Kansas City and St.Louis will determine which way Missouri falls. High turn out in these cities means Bush will have a tough ride. That is exactly how it played out in 2000. Turnout was not as high as it could have been in STL and KC, so Bush won the state. Hopefully, all the crack downs on voter fraud will make some difference.

[BlackRazor]

With [Michigan's] high unemployment rate, there is absolutely no chance at all it will go for bush.

I agree that Michigan will be one of the more difficult swing states for Bush to win. As of the moment, I'd project it to be a Dem victory. But I wouldn't presume to say Bush has a 0% chance of winning there. The East Lansing-based Mitchell Poll put Bush's approval rating in MI at 63% last week. That's ahead of the national average, despite the high unemployment. Bush will have a realistic chance here.

[CharacterCounts]

This state was decided by fewer than 1000 votes last time round. What has happened in the last three years to solidify Bush's position in Florida?

Better voting machines?

[Ragirl]

I agree that Michigan will be one of the more difficult swing states for Bush to win. As of the moment, I'd project it to be a Dem victory. But I wouldn't presume to say Bush has a 0% chance of winning there. The East Lansing-based Mitchell Poll put Bush's approval rating in MI at 63% last week. That's ahead of the national average, despite the high unemployment. Bush will have a realistic chance here.

Bush has a chance in Michigan - more so than in 2000. The people up north and in the western part of the state need to turn out in droves for that to happen. I was amazed at Bush's approval ratings here. The Detroit News did a survey.

From the Detroit News: Republican President George W. Bush appears to be on solid footing to capture this state in his re-election bid. He has an overall 63 percent job approval rating, the survey shows.
Michigan voters seem pretty content with their elected leaders right now, Detroit News pollster Steve Mitchell said. They’re very happy with the governor and also happy with the leadership President Bush is providing.

Detroit News 1/19/04

[Congressman Billybob]

One of the "changes in Florida" is that the numbnuts at the networks have discovered that the Florida Panhandle is NOT on Eastern Standard Time, so they should wait another hour before calling Florida for any candidate. That change alone, all other things equal, would have assured Bush a solid win by 20,000+, rather than a three-month contest over whether he won. Just a thought.

Congressman Billybob

Click here, then click the blue CFR button, to join the anti-CFR effort (or visit the "Hugh & Series, Critical & Pulled by JimRob" thread).

[Vigilanteman]

You've listed Maine with a 47% chance for Bush. I don't dispute this, but I would rate the rural second district much higher, the urban first district much lower. Remember, Maine and Nebraska can divide electoral votes. It was late in election eve 2000 before the networks called the 2nd district of Maine for Gore.

[DM1]

Hey now leave New Hampshire right here the rest of New England can go back and Rule Britania though ;)

[Bombard]

The demographics of Missouri have changed. Look at the assembly and senate. The 2002 elections showed that the electorial balance has shifited to the suburbs and rural areas.

[mystery-ak]

There are two new polls out tonight...I know they are probably push polls but one showed Kerry beating Bush and the other from Fox News has Bush at 49% and Kerry at 42%.....the rats are going to pick Kerry now that some polls are showing he can compete with Bush...Kerry will be their candidate.

[HitmanLV]

This is almost the scenario I have said for months now - Bush wins all of his 2000 states and some more, while the dems win some (but not all) of their 2000 states and no more.

I have been consistently saying 325-350 EVs. The truth is too many states are just out of reach for us with large urban centers, large pockets of dem voters that won't budge, etc.

The good news is that this won't be nearly as dramatic as the numbers may suggest at first blush: of the Dems 180-190 EVs, 77 are CA, WA, OR, and Hawaii (note that the analysis gives Oregon to Bush but I write off the whole left coast of the lower 48.

In other words, its over before the Cali polls are closed.

[alnick]

Jeb doing a good job, less chance or voter fraud next time around, military votes will be counted, incumbant factor, 9/11, ... just to name a few right off the top of my head. I'm sure there are more.

Those tens of thousands of Floridians who didn't bother to vote when the state was called early for Gore probably won't make that mistake again.

[Jet Jaguar]

bump and bookmark

[Lancey Howard]

Great post!

If you take all of those states where Bush has between a 50% and a 70% chance of winning, that totals 101 electoral votes. If Bush nabs just half of those votes, he still ends up with 304 to the rats' 234. Looking good.

Very unscientific, but there you go.