2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

I believe that New York has got to be a lot better than 28%.
I mean, the state does have a Republican governor, and the city did elect a guy who ran as a Republican, and if Rudy Giuliani goes on TV and asks New Yorkers to vote for Dubya, they will.

I think New York is most definitely in play.

You know what, your right. I just spent some time crunching the numbers from 2000. Even with a "high" voter turn out in STL and KC , GW would have still won the state. Voter turn out was very low in 2000 in KC ( 46% ) and STL ( 39% ), with Bush winning Missouri by about 78,000 votes. There really is not enough there , in the Rat strongholds , to make up the difference. Good news for sure.

It is obvious Missouri has taken a turn to the right in recent years, even with Demorat Holden being elected as Governor ( currently being challenge by state auditor Sara McCaskill in the guber. primary). I hope he gets the nod though so we can run him out of office. I think if she gets the nod, it may be tougher to get a Republican Governor in.

One bit of info some around here may not know:

Missouri has voted for the winner in every presidential election of the 20th century, except in 1956 when voters backed Adlai Stevenson, thereby earning the sobriquet of "bellwhether state."

Keep an eye on Missouri folks !!

I doubt that Bush will take PA. My own guess is maybe he has 47-48% of the vote.

PA lags the rest of the country in economic recovery, at least my part of PA does. Add to that the fraud machine that Govenor Fast Eddie will be rolling out and it's really an uphill battle for Bush in PA.

I don't think Bush will take PA, either. But if it's a close race in that state, I think Bush wins handily elsewhere in the U.S. If the Democrats have to spend a lot of time and money in Pennsylvania, I think they're going to get overwhelmed in other states they won in 2000 (I'm thinking of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa in particular).

The logic and the facts on the ground tell us that President Bush is favored to win in 2004. However, we cannot take this for granted at all because many things can happen from now until November 2nd 2004 that may reduce the chances of President Bush victory. We need to work extremely hard for this victory. Let's roll.

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