Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Wednesday, January 21, 2003 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 01/21/2004 10:56:54 AM PST by Momaw Nadon

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-66 next last
I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 355 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 183 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 01/21/2004 10:56:55 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
in other words...a landslide.
2 posted on 01/21/2004 10:58:05 AM PST by Solson (Our work is the presentation of our capabilities. - Von Goethe)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
Gosh, I'm amazed at how close to reality that probably is. What's their track (no pun intended) record?
3 posted on 01/21/2004 10:59:09 AM PST by anniegetyourgun
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Solson
No its not a landslide.
4 posted on 01/21/2004 10:59:15 AM PST by nwrep
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
Solid win. This is a plausible scenario.
5 posted on 01/21/2004 11:00:09 AM PST by .cnI redruM (Iowa Headline - Kerry, Firefighters Hose Howard Dean!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Southack; William McKinley; PhiKapMom; onyx; deport; Torie
FYI.
6 posted on 01/21/2004 11:01:26 AM PST by Howlin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: anniegetyourgun
Generally, political futures markets are very accurate because people are betting with their own money.

On the other hand, the betting on the Iowa outcome was not especially accurate.

This may be due to the complexity of the caucus system.

7 posted on 01/21/2004 11:03:23 AM PST by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: anniegetyourgun
Gosh, I'm amazed at how close to reality that probably is. What's their track (no pun intended) record?

Shoot, last election they could not even accurately project the winner of each state a day before the election, now they want to tell us they know 9 months before the election.....

8 posted on 01/21/2004 11:03:40 AM PST by Always Right
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
I'm not so sure that California is solidly in the Democratic column this time...
9 posted on 01/21/2004 11:07:10 AM PST by TommyDale
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: .cnI redruM
However... if you look at those states where Bush is at 75% or less and put them in the Dem's column, the Dem's win...

This will not be a cakewalk by any means - it's a long time to election day, and the Dem's don't have a candidate yet.
10 posted on 01/21/2004 11:07:53 AM PST by So Cal Rocket
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Always Right
now they want to tell us they know 9 months before the election.....

They're not telling us anything. They are simply providing a market where people may risk their money on their political hunches.

11 posted on 01/21/2004 11:08:06 AM PST by Moosilauke
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: So Cal Rocket
I'd wager the house, the car, and the kids that Bush doesn't carry Wash DC!! To say he has a 10% chance of carrying the district is about 10% too high.
12 posted on 01/21/2004 11:09:40 AM PST by So Cal Rocket
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: So Cal Rocket
One thing it tells me is that we should give New England back to England.
13 posted on 01/21/2004 11:11:42 AM PST by Dog Gone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
BUMP!
14 posted on 01/21/2004 11:11:53 AM PST by jmstein7
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Mich0127
BUMP!
15 posted on 01/21/2004 11:11:59 AM PST by jmstein7
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
I went through the list very carefully with a worst case scenario in mind, giving any state gore won last time to the dems, leaving all projected dem votes in place as listed, and giving the dems the benefit of the doubt (zombie vote) in states such as Nevada and WV listed for Bush.

With that approach, i came up with a 278-260 gop victory.
16 posted on 01/21/2004 11:12:08 AM PST by EERinOK
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All
Here are two more political futures sites that may be of interest:

Iowa Electronic Markets 2004 US PRESIDENTIAL VOTE SHARE MARKET and newsfutures.com U.S. Presidential Election

17 posted on 01/21/2004 11:12:09 AM PST by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
69% chance that Bush wins Florida!

This state was decided by fewer than 1000 votes last time round. What has happened in the last three years to solidify Bush's position in Florida?
18 posted on 01/21/2004 11:12:44 AM PST by gridlock (There's no such thing as idiot-proof, only idiot-resistant. The ingenuity of idiots knows no bounds)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
This is fun. Thanks. Plus, check out the Deaniac topic list!
19 posted on 01/21/2004 11:13:49 AM PST by AmishDude
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
If I were drawing a map, this sure looks a lot like a map I would draw for Pres Bush. Texas comes in first for Bush and Oklahoma 2nd just .05 ahead of a lot of the rest of the South. These numbers look good and what I would expect.

I think we have a chance to take Maine if Kerry is the nominee -- they don't like Kerry as too many of people from MA have moved to Southern Maine.
20 posted on 01/21/2004 11:13:50 AM PST by PhiKapMom (AOII Mom -- Support Bush-Cheney '04)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-66 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson