2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Wednesday, January 21, 2003 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	83.0	10	0
Arkansas	72.0	6	0
California	27.0	0	55
Colorado	86.0	9	0
Connecticut	27.5	0	7
Delaware	42.5	0	3
District of Columbia	10.0	0	3
Florida	69.0	27	0
Georgia	92.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	43.0	0	21
Indiana	89.0	11	0
Iowa	72.5	7	0
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	93.0	8	0
Louisiana	90.0	9	0
Maine	47.5	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	12.5	0	12
Michigan	58.0	17	0
Minnesota	58.0	10	0
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	73.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	77.5	5	0
New Hampshire	63.0	4	0
New Jersey	27.5	0	15
New Mexico	71.5	5	0
New York	28.0	0	31
North Carolina	91.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	78.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.5	7	0
Oregon	62.0	7	0
Pennsylvania	63.0	21	0
Rhode Island	12.5	0	4
South Carolina	95.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	88.0	11	0
Texas	98.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	9.5	0	3
Virginia	92.5	13	0
Washington	48.0	0	11
West Virginia	62.5	5	0
Wisconsin	61.5	10	0
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		355	183

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 355 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 183 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Solson]

in other words...a landslide.

[anniegetyourgun]

Gosh, I'm amazed at how close to reality that probably is. What's their track (no pun intended) record?

[nwrep]

No its not a landslide.

[.cnI redruM]

Solid win. This is a plausible scenario.

[Howlin]

FYI.

[Momaw Nadon]

Generally, political futures markets are very accurate because people are betting with their own money.

On the other hand, the betting on the Iowa outcome was not especially accurate.

This may be due to the complexity of the caucus system.

[Always Right]

Gosh, I'm amazed at how close to reality that probably is. What's their track (no pun intended) record?

Shoot, last election they could not even accurately project the winner of each state a day before the election, now they want to tell us they know 9 months before the election.....

[TommyDale]

I'm not so sure that California is solidly in the Democratic column this time...

[So Cal Rocket]

However... if you look at those states where Bush is at 75% or less and put them in the Dem's column, the Dem's win...

This will not be a cakewalk by any means - it's a long time to election day, and the Dem's don't have a candidate yet.

[Moosilauke]

now they want to tell us they know 9 months before the election.....

They're not telling us anything. They are simply providing a market where people may risk their money on their political hunches.

[So Cal Rocket]

I'd wager the house, the car, and the kids that Bush doesn't carry Wash DC!! To say he has a 10% chance of carrying the district is about 10% too high.

[Dog Gone]

One thing it tells me is that we should give New England back to England.

[jmstein7]

BUMP!

[jmstein7]

BUMP!

[EERinOK]

I went through the list very carefully with a worst case scenario in mind, giving any state gore won last time to the dems, leaving all projected dem votes in place as listed, and giving the dems the benefit of the doubt (zombie vote) in states such as Nevada and WV listed for Bush.

With that approach, i came up with a 278-260 gop victory.

[Momaw Nadon]

Here are two more political futures sites that may be of interest:

Iowa Electronic Markets 2004 US PRESIDENTIAL VOTE SHARE MARKET and newsfutures.com U.S. Presidential Election

[gridlock]

69% chance that Bush wins Florida!

This state was decided by fewer than 1000 votes last time round. What has happened in the last three years to solidify Bush's position in Florida?

[AmishDude]

This is fun. Thanks. Plus, check out the Deaniac topic list!

[PhiKapMom]

If I were drawing a map, this sure looks a lot like a map I would draw for Pres Bush. Texas comes in first for Bush and Oklahoma 2nd just .05 ahead of a lot of the rest of the South. These numbers look good and what I would expect.

I think we have a chance to take Maine if Kerry is the nominee -- they don't like Kerry as too many of people from MA have moved to Southern Maine.