Aiming for the Hill Two more Senate seats for the GOP?

NRO ^ | 1/14/04 | John J. Miller

[chiller]

This year's field of Senate candidates has come into much sharper focus since my previous reports in September and July. And that means it's time to make a few predictions.

But first, the big picture: Republicans control the Senate with 51 seats. If President Bush wins reelection, they can afford to lose a single seat and stay in charge, with Vice President Cheney breaking ties. If the Democratic nominee prevails, the GOP has no margin for error.

In November, 34 states will elect a senator. The Democrats are defending 19 of these seats and the Republicans hold the remaining 15. Few of these races are truly competitive — I've kept an eye on 18 of them, using a fairly generous standard of what makes a race worth watching.

It's still very early in the cycle, but I'm ready to begin making a few guesses: three GOP takeovers, one Democratic takeover, and four tossups (for two seats now held by Republicans and two by Democrats). If my assumptions are correct — and this isn't a money-back guarantee, folks! — then the likeliest scenario would be for the GOP to gain a pair of Senate seats and increase its majority to 53.

Herewith, my quick analysis of 18 races:

ALASKA: Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski and former Democratic governor Tony Knowles appear to be headed for one of the closest elections in the country. Murkowski may deserve a slight edge because she'll share the ticket with Bush, who is strongly popular way up there. TOSSUP

ARKANSAS: Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln might have been vulnerable this year, but she hasn't attracted a strong challenger. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

CALIFORNIA: Former Republican secretary of state Bill Jones has just announced his candidacy against Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. He probably would have been the GOP's best candidate for governor in 2002, but he didn't do well in the primary. This time around, he'll face competition from the right (former assemblyman Howard Kaloogian) and the left (former U.S. treasurer Rosario Marin). As a mainstream, pro-life Republican with a proven record of statewide electoral success, he remains the GOP's best hope for beating an incumbent Democrat. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

COLORADO: Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell's path to reelection became much clearer when Democratic congressman Mark Udall said he won't run for the Senate this year. The only remaining question is whether former senator Gary Hart will get in the race. If he does, the contest will attract some national attention because Hart was once a favorite among Democrats to run for president. But he's also a has-been who won his last Senate seat in Colorado (in 1980) with only 51 percent of the vote. The state is much more Republican today. LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION

FLORIDA: Will Republican congresswoman Katherine Harris get in the race? The smart money says she won't — and that she'll wait to challenge Sen. Ben Nelson in 2006, when memories of her role in the 2000 election will have receded and when the White House will be much more enthusiastic about her candidacy. The GOP frontrunner now is former HUD secretary Mel Martinez, but the primary field is crowded and Martinez will come under attack for his trial-lawyer past. The Democrats will endure their own bruising nomination fight. LEANING REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER

GEORGIA: In one sense, Republicans already have captured this seat: Retiring Democratic Sen. Zell Miller votes like a man who has switched parties in his heart. A couple of Democratic candidates finally have surfaced to replace him: Mary Squires and Nadine Thomas, both state senators. Perhaps they think that running and losing will boost their prospects for future office. The winner of the GOP primary between businessman Herman Cain, Rep. Mac Collins, and Rep. Johnny Isakson will be the heavy favorite. LIKELY REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER

ILLINOIS: This election remains the Democrats' best chance to pickup a seat currently held by a Republican and state comptroller Dan Hynes appears well on his way to winning his party's nomination. The GOP's best hope would be for state Sen. Barack Obama to upset him in the primary. LEANING DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER

LOUISIANA: Democratic Sen. John Breaux's decision to retire leaves Louisiana with what will be one of this year's most-watched Senate contests. The race will feature a pair of congressmen: Democrat Chris John and Republican David Vitter. TOSSUP

MISSOURI: Democratic state treasurer Nancy Farmer recently made national headlines — sort of — when Hillary Clinton cracked a Gandhi joke at her fundraiser. This wasn't the sort of attention Farmer was hoping to attract in an uphill battle against Republican Sen. Kit Bond. LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION

NEVADA: Democratic Sen. Harry Reid might have been vulnerable this year, but the GOP won't field the kind of candidate who can knock him off. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

NORTH CAROLINA: Republican congressman Richard Burr has a money advantage over Democrat Erskine Bowles, who benefits from the statewide recognition he received for running against Elizabeth Dole in 2002. A new poll has Bowles in the lead, 45 percent to 40 percent. This could be a real nail-biter. TOSSUP

NORTH DAKOTA: This is another state where Republican might have hoped to do well — except that their best candidates have chosen not to run. Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan appears poised for reelection. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

OKLAHOMA: The retirement of Republican Sen. Don Nickles creates a pickup opportunity for Democrats, though not without a tough fight. Democratic congressman Brad Carson has raised nearly twice the cash as former Oklahoma City mayor Kirk Humphries, who just learned that he'll face a distracting challenge in the GOP primary. TOSSUP

PENNSYLVANIA: Robert Bork has endorsed Rep. Pat Toomey in his GOP primary challenge against Sen. Arlen Specter. Despite this, conservatives are far from united in the effort to unseat one of the Senate's most liberal Republicans: The National Rifle Association recently came out for Specter. Democratic congressman Joe Hoeffel waits in the wings for the GOP to settle its intramural quarrel. LEANING REPUBLICAN RETENTION

SOUTH CAROLINA: Former Republican governor David Beasley promises to say whether he's running in the next week or so, and all signs indicate that he'll get in. If so, he probably becomes the frontrunner in a GOP primary that already features former attorney general Charlie Condon and Rep. Jim DeMint. The Democrats almost certainly will nominate schools chief Inez Tenenbaum. LEANING REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER

SOUTH DAKOTA: Polls indicate that when GOP congressman John Thune challenged Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson in 2002, about 20 percent of South Dakota's Republicans voted for Johnson on the theory that it was better to pull the lever for the man in the Senate majority. Thune lost by a whisker. Now the Democrats aren't in the majority and Thune is taking on Tom Daschle. The race will be close — and if Thune loses, Republican will grumble that he should have run for his old House seat because the Democrats stand a good chancing of winning it this year. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

WASHINGTON: In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans (45 percent to 40 percent, according to Gallup), Democratic Sen. Patty Murray must be considered the favorite against Republican congressman George Nethercutt. A new poll (by the Democratic proxy group EMILY's List) puts Murray well in the lead, 48 percent to 26 percent. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

WISCONSIN: Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold lacks a credible GOP opponent. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

[chiller]

Sounds like a worst case scenario, at first glance.

[DM1]

I hope that this is an underestimate. Oklahoma has me kind of surprised though i would have thought that would be an easy GOP victory same with the Bowles race.

[eyespysomething]

Georgia will go GOP.

Herman Cain all the way!

[chiller]

I've heard Cain on the M. Medved show. Sharp guy. Love to see him in the Senate.

[ken5050]

It is..and the point is that if everything breaks the right way..it could be a huge GOP pick-up..BTW..I'm not worried about Alaska....for the Dems to win that seat, it would mean that 40% of Alaska's voters would have to split their tickets...what is important is that the Dems are gnna have to spend big $ on a lot of Senate races..which they don't have...

[ken5050]

It is..and the point is that if everything breaks the right way..it could be a huge GOP pick-up..BTW..I'm not worried about Alaska....for the Dems to win that seat, it would mean that 40% of Alaska's voters would have to split their tickets...what is important is that the Dems are g0nna have to spend big $ on a lot of Senate races..which they don't have...

[ken5050]

It is..and the point is that if everything breaks the right way..it could be a huge GOP pick-up..BTW..I'm not worried about Alaska....for the Dems to win that seat, it would mean that 40% of Alaska's voters would have to split their tickets...what is important is that the Dems are g0nna have to spend big $ on a lot of Senate races..which they don't have...

[PhiKapMom]

Am from Oklahoma and believe he has the Oklahoma race pegged wrong. Carson, Dem from NE OK, voted against some of the tax cuts, is not conservative, and will not do well in the rest of Oklahoma especially OKC area where Kirk Humphreys, the Republican, will run very well. We have five Congressmen -- 4 Republicans and Carson the RAT and this guy wants me to believe that our four Congressional districts that are Republican along with Pres Bush on the ballot, are going to elect a RAT to the Senate for six years. No way, no how! This is a Bush State that is already disgusted with all the Dems coming in the State and will go bigtime for Bush. Oklahoma is Republican at the Nation level and with all good fortune will be Republican in at least one House of the Legislature and a Republican Governor in 2006 -- can you say Governor Watts?

As to credibility of the writer -- he lost with Florida and saying that Harris will challenge "Ben" Nelson. If the writer doesn't know that "Ben" Nelson is from Nebraska and that "Bill" Nelson is from Florida, not sure that I would believe the rest of what he has to say.

Ditto your remarks on Bowles as well.

[donozark]

RE:MISSOURI-Kit Bond vs. Nancy Farmer? She is a gun-grabber for all those who do not know. She opposed CCW. I have info/facts,etc. But don't wnat to turn this thread into an RKBA issue.

Kit Bond is safe-as far as I know.

RE:NRA endorsement of Arlan Specter? I've emailed them to ascertain the facts. Author of this piece seems a bit "disjointed."

Do you or anyone else here think BEN Nelson of Nebraska can be pushed to become a Republican? Or at least endorse GWB ala Zel Miller? Or is he too far gone?

[maica]

That Ben Nelson comment jarred my brain as well.

I certainly hope that Katherine Harris rethinks her wish to run in '04. McAuliffe and Co are going to make Florida one ugly place for President Bush as it is. Her candidacy would just provide them with red meat, and President Bush with a more difficult campaign as he visits that state.

[Sabertooth]

Sounds like a worst case scenario, at first glance.

Could be.

Advocates of the Karl Rove "where else are conservatives gonna go" approach to CFR/Prescription Drugs/Amnesty for Illegals/domestic politics ought to take note, however. While disaffected members of the party rank-and-file might not go anywhere, they also might not go to the polls.

A drop of a couple of points on turnout won't likely affect the re-election of President Bush, but it could have a great affect on a lot of close races in the House and Senate.

[Keith]

I know most "true believers" on this forum disdain Karl Rove, and I understand why. I also have the same frustrations about "compromising" that lead to these concerns. Let's remember that Rove has three jobs this election:

1) Re-elect the President--JOB ONE OVER ALL

2) Extend the House majority -- the Texas redistricting has all but guaranteed that, but he know the larger the majority, the more permanent the shift...

3) Get as close to 60 in the Senate as possible...because HE KNOWS THAT IT'S ALL ABOUT THE JUDGES. They stay for LIFE, which is why the Dems are willing to do ANYTHING to stop them. And if that means running RINOS like Marin in CA, Specter in PA, and the like, to get to 60 Republicans in the Senate, THAT IS WHAT HE WILL DO.

All I am saying is that this is his focus...and after watching how the Dems peed on the Constitution by forcing judges to get a super-majority in the Senate, and the press and public did nothing, then you are gonna have to swallow a few RINOs in blue states. Freepers need to keep this is mind.

[Sabertooth]

3) Get as close to 60 in the Senate as possible...because HE KNOWS THAT IT'S ALL ABOUT THE JUDGES. They stay for LIFE, which is why the Dems are willing to do ANYTHING to stop them. And if that means running RINOS like Marin in CA, Specter in PA, and the like, to get to 60 Republicans in the Senate, THAT IS WHAT HE WILL DO.

All I am saying is that this is his focus...and after watching how the Dems peed on the Constitution by forcing judges to get a super-majority in the Senate, and the press and public did nothing, then you are gonna have to swallow a few RINOs in blue states. Freepers need to keep this is mind.

The point I'm making is that excusing every blunder and exasperating triangulation of the Bush/Rove strategery might actually hinder GOP prospects this November.

I know that might not sway the "don't let the door hit you in the butt" style of coalition-builders, but more thoughtful Freepers ought to keep that in mind.

[chiller]

Agreed. Judges is Job #1. Your tag has prompted me to change my tag. Thanks for the nudge.

[PhiKapMom]

Sen Ben Nelson has voted the Bush agenda almost all the time he has been in office. Have heard rumors of his possibility walking the aisle but not sure how true they are, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him before his reelection become a Republican in his reelection bid.

[PhiKapMom]

I am with you -- do not want Kathryn Harris running with Pres Bush on the ballot. In fact, I cannot even believe she is considering a run.

[jmaroneps37]

Oklahoma and North Carolina "toss ups" ?????? Yeah right!

[MarkDel]

Chiller,

I think 53 seats is actually a very "worst case scenario" picture for the Senate in 2004.

You have Oklahoma in the tossup category, but I have to believe that with GW Bush on the top of the ticket, we should be able to hold onto this seat with relatively little problem. I also think you underestimate our position in South Carolina where we should pick up that seat with little trouble...I can't imagine that a left wing woman (Tenenbaum) will fare well in South Carolina, especially in a Presidential Election year.

The only seat that we should lose is in Illinois where I think we are pretty much doomed with the way that state is trending. I know Knowles is a strong candidate in Alaksa, but I just cannot see us losing there...it's been decades since a Democrat won a Senate seat in that state. Also, we may be in a tough race in North Carolina, but we should be able to pull that one out, especially if the Democrats are dumb enough to have Dean on the top of their ticket.

If Dean is the nominee, I think we should win EVERY seat in the South except Arkansas. That means net pickups in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida and even Louisiana. Also, we are far from out of the picture in Arkansas...and it's not unthinkable that we could swing upsets in places like South Dakota and Nevada with Dean on the ticket. And if we capture Bin Laden by the election...hell...even California, North Dakota and Washington are within reach!!!

[Keith]

I am not a "don't let the door hit you in the butt" type of freeper...but those who can't hold their nose and pull the pubbie lever are simply helping Teddy the Swimmer continue to block conservative judges...

THAT is a shame.

[Sabertooth]

I am not a "don't let the door hit you in the butt" type of freeper...but those who can't hold their nose and pull the pubbie lever are simply helping Teddy the Swimmer continue to block conservative judges...

THAT is a shame.

I disagree.

Politicians are superficial, thick-as-brick gladhanders, subject only to the logic of a well-struck 2x4.

When politicians refuse to listen to their constituents, and lose elections in the process, then the feckless twits have only themselves to blame.