ZOGBY: DEAN LEAD WIDENS IN IOWA

Zogby ^ | January 13, 2004 | Zogby

[Pubbie]

A 3-Way, Bordering on a 4-Way Race in Iowa; Another Big Day for Kerry; Dean's Lead Widens to 5 Points Over Gephardt, According to New Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll

Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean has expanded his lead over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt in Iowa caucus polling, 28%-23%, according to the new Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll.

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry holds third place with a one-point increase to 17%, followed by North Carolina Senator John Edwards who bounced back to 14%.

Dean has opened an 11-point lead over Gephardt in western Iowa, 4 points in the east, and 3 in the central part. He leads among Democrats and has a 12-point lead over Gephardt among 18-29 year-olds, and a 5-point lead with 50-64 year-olds. He enjoys a 12-point lead among those with college degrees and more. Dean has a 15-point lead over Kerry among singles.

Gephardt holds a 5-point lead among voters over age 65, and a 5-point lead among union voters. The race for union voters is now a 3-way race.

Dean has a 6-point lead among men, and 4 points among women. Kerry passes Gephardt for 2nd place among liberals, and also tops the list of second choice.

Undecideds are down to 12% overall with a week to go, and are leaning 14% each to Dean and Gephardt. Gephardt’s supporters appear to be the most intense, with three in four saying their support is very strong. This compares to ‘strong support’ of 63% for Edwards, 56% for Dean, and 50% for Kerry.

Pollster John Zogby: “Another big day for John Kerry. In Monday’s polling alone, the score is Dean, 27%, Gephardt, 22%, Kerry, 20%, and Edwards, 16%. It looks like Edwards is starting to see a post endorsement bounce. Meanwhile, Kerry has been on fire two days in a row. While Dean continues to lead, this has the potential to be a 4-way race.

“There are doubts about Dean. One in seven (14%) of likely caucus voters feel it’s unlikely that any Democrat currently in the race could beat President Bush, but 3 in 10 have doubts about Dean’s ability to win.

“All four top candidates are highly regarded among voters, and we’ve seen the undecideds take a 2-point drop to 12%.”

Polling results will be released daily through Monday, January 19th, the date of actual caucus voting in Iowa.Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of a random sampling of 502 likely caucus voters statewide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Saturday (1/10/04) thru Monday (1/12/04). The margin of error is +/- 4.5%. Slight weights were added to party, age, education, union, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[Pubbie]

This is amazing - despite all the screw ups by Dean, he still has been maintaining a healthy lead over Gephardt.

Keep in mind that the Undecideds will break for Dean and Push him over 30% when the voting starts Monday.

[My2Cents]

Gee, just yesterday Dean was on the ropes, according to some mediots.

[Elle Bee]

HAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAA

.

[Pubbie]

When the media says "It's too close to call" it means that the candidate the Media favors is losing (In this case the media is pimping for Gephardt.)

[azcap]

The media will continue to report that Dean is on the ropes regardless of any polls or election results. The media want to kill the Dean candidacy. It is was lots of fun last year when he gave them the opportunity to runs lots of bush-bashing stories but now that it looks like he could win the nomination and take the party down in flames they are working hard to damage him.

[WOSG]

It would be *GREAT* if the media killed the Dean candidacy, or at least tried ... why? Then there is no frontrunner and the "nightmare" scenario for the Democrats opens up: The delegates get split among different candidates during the primary season and nobody ends up with a majority. No candidate until the convention, so the Dems dont get their act together until way late in the season.

Someone help me out with how the delegates are apportioned in these primaries. Which ones are 'winner take all' and which ones are divided up between candidates?

[eureka!]

Yep. The long knives are out but missing the mark. I'm loving it....

[krb]

: The delegates get split among different candidates during the primary season and nobody ends up with a majority.

Then we get Hillary. Be careful what you wish for.

[Elle Bee]

pray we get the Hilldabeast

she will crash and burn

.

[Elle Bee]

pray we get the Hilldabeast

she too will crash and burn

.

[My2Cents]

These poll results are actually good news. Gephardt's campaign will be through after he loses to Dean in Iowa. When Kerry ends up third in NH, that will end his campaign. When Clark loses in SC and Arizona, his campaign will be finished. When the southern states have held their primaries, and Carol Mosley-Braun has successfully split the black vote denying Sharpie Sharp a good showing, the plug on her candidacy will be pulled by the DNC. Lieberman will continue on because his campaign is less about winning the nomination, and more about trying to save the soul of the Democrat Party. What Lieberman doesn't recognize is that the Democrats have no soul. Kucinich will stay in the race simply for the chicks.

[My2Cents]

These poll results are actually good news. Gephardt's campaign will be through after he loses to Dean in Iowa. When Kerry ends up third in NH, that will end his campaign. When Clark loses in SC and Arizona, his campaign will be finished. When the southern states have held their primaries, and Carol Mosley-Braun has successfully split the black vote denying Sharpie Sharp a good showing, the plug on her candidacy will be pulled by the DNC. Lieberman will continue on because his campaign is less about winning the nomination, and more about trying to save the soul of the Democrat Party. What Lieberman doesn't recognize is that the Democrats have no soul. Kucinich will stay in the race simply for the chicks.

[lainde]

There's a draft Hillary movement already in play. They've produced ads that will be showing soon that skewer Dean: "Democratic Party on Life Support With Dr. Dean" motifs.

[My2Cents]

Sorry for the dual post...There's a hiccup in the server.

[My2Cents]

Unless she's on the ballot in the primary states, a "Draft Hillary" campaign will go nowhere. Besides, Dean will have the nomination wrapped up in about 6 weeks.

[BibChr]

[WOSG]

I have explained to another poster that WE SHOULD WELCOME HILLARY AS THE 2004 DEM LOSER TO BUSH!

First, Hillary is smart enough to not want it. It's why she didnt run in a race where she would be the frontrunner in an instant.

Hillary will lose to Bush as surely as Dean will.

Why it is a great "benefit" to the GOP to see this scenario. Consider:
1. Annoys all the new Dean voters who now see a 'Clinton affirmative action plan' of someone who gets nominated without running.
2. If it *does* happen, it will happen *late*. That's the key. A Presidential race requires planning and scheduling and organization. You cant run from a start in August.
3. Hillary in 2004 means we get to bring up all her dirty laundry and the many moral ethical and factual lapses of her career, going all the way back to her phony $100,000 windfall in cattle futures.
4. Clintons have been like the bubonic plague to the Dems. Another Clinton up there does wonders to defumigating Dems from power.
5. The real benefit is to deflate Hillary for 2008.
A loss in 2004 we put some tarnish on her for 2008 and the Dems will reasonably be asking "cant we move on?"

As bush would say "bring it on".

[MagnusMaximus1]

This story was already posted by Timesink, earlier today.

"A 3-Way, Bordering on a 4-Way Race in Iowa (Iowa RAT Race Devolving Into Free-For-All: Zogby)"

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1056993/posts

Note the interesting political analysis post on that thread.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

There's a draft Hillary movement already in play. They've produced ads that will be showing soon that skewer Dean: "Democratic Party on Life Support With Dr. Dean" motifs.

Yeah, I've seen those ads...My goodness, I've seen better video production from a high school AV Club in the 1980s. Its sad, REALLY sad. Last I heard it was run by a single guy from the Northeast, a homosexual activist who hasn't gotten the traction he was looking for and is doing "protests" with about 5 people present. A total nut who hates Dean, I guess they're too similar to get along.

Besides, Hillary is afraid to run against Bush, she wants to run in 08 against a non incubent. That is patently obvious.

Hillary is afraid of Dubya, pass it on.