Bin Laden Tape: Gloom & Doom (Stratfor)

The release of a new tape by Osama bin Laden is always an important event. The most recent one is particularly important because of the tone it takes. It is far from resigned, but it is a gloomy analysis of al Qaeda's situation, focusing on the failure of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states to resist the United States. Al Qaeda has a great deal to be gloomy about. Events were very much moving in its favor since the U.S. invasion of Iraq. But December was a terrible month for al Qaeda: The United States began to gain control over the insurrection, and the diplomatic situation in the region began to shift in the U.S. favor. Al Qaeda has a problem and is searching for a solution.

Osama bin Laden released a new audio tape during the week of Jan. 5. It was different in tone and focus than prior tapes. The focus was less on the United States, Israel or Kashmir than on the Arab world in general and the Arabian Peninsula in particular. The tone was bleak and filled with anger at betrayal by Arab rulers. It represents an honest assessment of the war from al Qaeda's view, and it reveals the war is not going well for them.

O Muslims: The situation is serious and the misfortune is momentous. By God, I am keen on safeguarding your religion and your worldly life. So, lend me your ears and open up your hearts to me so that we may examine these pitch-black misfortunes and so that we may consider how we can find a way out of these adversities and calamities....

These (Gulf) states came to America's help and backed it in its attack against an Arab state which is bound to them with covenants of joint defense agreement ... they finally submitted and succumbed to U.S. pressure and opened their air, land and sea bases to contribute toward the U.S. campaign, despite the immense repercussions of this move. Most important of these repercussions is that this is a sin against one of the Islamic tenets...

Based on the above, the extent of the real danger -- which the region in general and the Arabian Peninsula in particular is being exposed to -- has appeared. It has become clear that the rulers are not qualified to apply the religion and defend the Muslims. In fact, they have provided evidence that they are implementing the schemes of the enemies of the nation and religion and that they are qualified to abandon the countries and peoples.

This is the essential tone of the entire statement: A serious misfortune has befallen the Islamic world. The responsibility rests with Arab rulers in general and on Saudi Arabia in particular. It was their collaboration with the United States that created these "pitch-black misfortunes" and forced al Qaeda to search for a way out of the "adversities and calamities." It is far from a declaration of surrender, but it is also far from the defiant triumphalism of earlier statements.

To understand bin Laden's mood, it is important to look at the war from a strategic standpoint. The United States mounted an effective invasion of Iraq, using Kuwait as a base of operations, and with the overt or covert cooperation of all other contiguous Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia. The United States was surprised by the coherence and tempo of operations of the Iraqi guerrillas, but the insurrection never moved outside the country's Sunni areas in any substantial way and therefore was confined to a relatively small part of Iraq. Even in this region, after several months of indecisive and ineffective action, the United States mounted a counteroffensive after Ramadan that resulted in a substantial decline in guerrilla operations north of Baghdad, and a much less intense tempo of operations in Baghdad and to the west.

Iraq's internal politics also have moved in an unsatisfactory direction. The majority Shia, in a vague alliance with the Kurds, have not so much supported the United States as opposed the Sunnis. They also have no use for the foreign jihadists moving into Iraq. They are prepared to cooperate with the Americans, exchanging support now for control of the government later. The Sunni sheikhs, observing the deterioration of the guerrillas' military situation, are repositioning themselves, making deals with the Americans. The prospect of Shiite domination without any U.S. goodwill cushioning that process is more frightening to the Sunnis than the guerrilla movement. Therefore, the Baathist guerrilla movement is under severe pressure, while the foreign jihadists operating without the Baathists have no roots in Iraq, nor does the Sunni leadership welcome them. Therefore, al Qaeda's hope of bogging down the United States in Iraq as they bogged down the Soviets in Afghanistan is disappearing.

The broader strategic situation is even more unsatisfactory. Al Qaeda was hoping that Sept. 11 would trigger a massive rising among the Islamic masses, toppling regimes that were collaborating with the United States and forcing others to change their policies. That simply hasn't happened. Some expected the invasion of Iraq to generate a massive upheaval in the Islamic world. It didn't. Whatever the feelings of the Islamic masses, they have not translated into a massive political moment.

Quite the contrary: The movement in the Islamic world has been toward collaboration with the United States. The most important case is Iran, which has been moving toward such an alignment since September 2003, in a process that broke into public view after the earthquake in Bam. The Iraqi Shiite leadership has generally close ties to Iran, forged during years of exile and struggle against Saddam Hussein. Their accommodation with the United States and participation in the Iraqi Governing Council would not have taken place without Iran's approval. Iran's interests are geopolitical. The United States, seeking a solution to the Iraqi guerrilla war, induced Iranian-Shiite cooperation by promising a Shiite-dominated government in Iraq that certainly would be, if not a satellite, a buffer on Iran's western flank.

The Iranian shift increased Saudi Arabia's dependence upon the United States. Saudi Arabia's nightmare is Iran as the dominant regional power without a Saudi security guarantee from the United States. That is precisely the direction events were going this past fall. Saudi Arabia grudgingly accommodated the United States before the war. Afterward, as the guerrilla movement intensified in Iraq, the United States turned to Iran, further eroding Saudi security. As this process took place, the Saudis had to move against al Qaeda in the kingdom. This was a fundamental U.S. goal in its invasion of Iraq. It did not happen quite the way the United States might have wanted it, but it did happen. The Saudis and the other Gulf states have moved aggressively to accommodate U.S. interests -- including attacking al Qaeda throughout the region.

The avalanche of bad news did not stop there. Libya, fully aware of the trends in the region, decided this was a propitious time to move closer to the United States. In the Arab world, only Syria remained outside the process. The Syrians had badly misread the situation during last summer, betting that the United States would get bogged down in Iraq. They bet on the guerrillas. Suddenly, as December wore on, they realized that they had not only guessed wrong, but had become completely isolated in the Arab world and surrounded on all sides by enemies. Damascus began to make accommodating gestures as the New Year began, inviting Likud Knesset members to Damascus and sending President Bashar al-Assad off to Turkey.

In Pakistan, jihadists tried -- and failed -- twice to kill President Gen. Pervez Musharraf. The danger to Musharraf's life did not prevent him from reaching out to India in a peace process, nor did the attempts trigger a military or popular rising against him. Al Qaeda knows that the culminating battle of the war will be waged in northwestern Pakistan when U.S. forces go after Osama bin Laden and his command cells. They must topple Musharraf to generate a major obstacle to U.S. plans. Therefore, the jihadists must get Musharraf. So far, they have failed.

At the moment, nothing is going al Qaeda's way. That does not mean al Qaeda is defeated. The war isn't over 'til it's over, and as the United States is showing in Iraq, reversals in war are common; the measure of victory is how quickly and effectively one adjusts to the reality and creates a new strategy. Al Qaeda has clearly lost the first round; it is readying for the second.

This second round appears to consist of two parts. One has been clearly defined: Al Qaeda will try to bring down the Saudi government. Riyadh's assault on al Qaeda certainly has hurt the group, but it has not destroyed it. The Wahhabi zeal -- which has fueled al Qaeda -- has its home in Saudi Arabia and is deeply rooted there. Opposition to the Saudi regime is not trivial. Whether al Qaeda can overthrow the regime is unclear, but bin Laden's statements make it clear that this is where his focus will be.

There is then the question of an attack on the United States. Bin Laden concedes that Sept. 11 failed to achieve al Qaeda's strategic goals. In fact, events since then have moved in just the opposite direction. The problem was the lack of political preparation in the Islamic world. The weakness among Arab regimes generally and Saudi Arabia particularly meant that the U.S. response -- rather than triggering massive anti-American resistance -- resulted in broad-based collaboration.

Another attack on the United States on the same order as Sept. 11 is not likely to succeed either, since collaboration has intensified. Given that al Qaeda does not intend simply to kill Americans, but rather to achieve political goals in the Islamic world by killing Americans, an attack at this moment squanders resources without achieving the wanted goal. At the same time, al Qaeda must demonstrate that it has a way out of the "pitch-black misfortunes" that have befallen it. It must do something, and do it quickly. Overthrowing the Saudi regime is not going to happen soon.

From a strictly strategic viewpoint, al Qaeda should postpone attacking the United States until it can reshape the politics of the Saudi peninsula. From a political viewpoint, the more impotent al Qaeda appears, the less its chances to achieve that political redefinition. It is caught in a chicken-or-egg problem -- and time, most definitely, is not on al Qaeda's side.

One solution would be what we would call a trans-Sept. 11 attack -- an attack that dwarfed Sept. 11 in significance. Obviously a nuclear, biological or chemical attack designed to cause enormous casualties would be such an attack and potentially -- and we emphasize potentially -- would accomplish two things. It might reinvigorate al Qaeda in the Islamic world by reinforcing its capabilities and competence -- neither is highly respected at the moment -- thus contributing to the political reality bin Laden spoke of. Second, it might -- in al Qaeda's mind -- convince the American public that the price of fighting al Qaeda is too high. There is a risk, of course. The Islamic masses might well take the same course that followed Sept. 11: vigorous conversation coupled with inaction, and the American public might want blood instead of withdrawal.

A serious question is whether al Qaeda can pull off a trans-Sept. 11 attack. It might be forced to go for a Sept. 11-type attack because that is the best available. Or, alternatively, it might decide to avoid any attacks in the United States, opting instead to focus resources on the struggle in Saudi Arabia and on bringing down Musharraf in Pakistan.

These are some of al Qaeda's choices. Which it will choose is an open question. What is clear is that al Qaeda is at a crossroads and -- like the United States in the spring of 2002 -- it does not have really good choices, and therefore, must choose the best of a bad lot. Al Qaeda's original war plan is obsolete. The straight line it drew from Sept. 11 to the Caliphate has hit a wall. Bin Laden knows it. He doesn't have a good Plan B, but he will have to cook one up anyway. The war is not over, but for the moment, it is al Qaeda's turn to sweat out a solution to a difficult strategic problem. If they can't do that, then the war could very well be over, at least for this generation.

>>>> if Bin Laden comes forward publicly, apologizes, denounces violence, and begs for forgiveness, dissent against our War on Terror would be legion.<<<

If that happened, Dean would propose U.S. college scholarships for anyone able to prove they are an Islamofacist or wannabe suicide bomber.

Wesley, not to be out done, would agree and propose inclusion of of Hamas, Hezbolla, Black September, and Islamic Jihad in the plan.

Kerry, would claim that all these proposals are useless unless these new students can afford to take America up on the plan....his proposal of $1,500 per month for each student will be hailed as true conservative compassion.

I could go on, but I'm feeling ill.

No, I think Al Qaeda will strike where it thinks there will be no retaliation. I think they will strike france.

I'd give your guess the top odds if I were running a Vegas casino.

The supposition about avoiding retaliation is correct, I believe. But I doubt France would be the one.

France seems to be some kind of "safe house" for the terrorists. They stage through there, they have planning sessions there. But they never conduct operations there.

It would appear that there is some sort of tacit understanding between the terrorists and the French authorities, a quid pro quo -- a mutual "don't hassle us, we won't hassle you" policy.

Great Britain, Spain, Italy, Australia...any U.S. ally in the WOT would be asking for trouble, too.

Germany? Maybe. Canada...???

We pretty well know what the U.S. response to a "dirty bomb" in Toronto would be. But would Sheikh Abdul bin al-Wahabi know?

He does know, however, than security arrangements in Canada are a joke. That there is no lack of terrorist cells for local support. And that there is absolutely no danger of Canada retaliating. Moreover, Canada is next door to the The Great Satan -- as if to say, "You're next".

The RCMP needs to have its antennae fully extended.

The release of a new tape by Osama bin Laden is always an important event. The most recent one is particularly important because of the tone it takes.

The echoes in the cave are decidedly deadened, and the impersonator clearly doesn't have the cadence or resonance in his command. Give us strength Allah, the virgins in the sky have been deflowered...and me thinks Howie the Midget Dean wears diapers and will lose 48 states..

Bin Laden concedes that Sept. 11 failed to achieve al Qaeda's strategic goals. In fact, events since then have moved in just the opposite direction.

Bin Laden misread the Americans - as if we'd cow and succumb. Well that would have happened in the Clinton administration and under Howard Dean.

Bin Laden misread the Americans - as if we'd cow and succumb.

Bin Laden read Americans perfectly - where he completely failed was in misreading Arabs, who he thought would rise up against the Americans when they sent their forces after Al Qaeda. His goal was to cause an anti-American uprising in the middle east which would lead to the toppling of pro-american regimes. As Stratfor points out in earlier assessments, we acted exactly as Bin Laden had hoped, however the rest of the Arab world fell in line as we demanded.

OBL is already dead. Been dead. Will stay dead for the foreseeable future. It is highly likely that his bodyguards knocked him off as many Asian sources claimed shortly after US went into Afghanistan. He didn't even make it to Tora Bora. It is, however not in US best interests for him to be dead at the moment.

And yet he's releasing tapes commenting on the capture of Saddam Hussien.

France seems to be some kind of "safe house" for the terrorists. They stage through there, they have planning sessions there. But they never conduct operations there.

The Libyans blew up a french airliner back in the 1980's. There was a thwarted plan to crash a plane into the Eiffel tower, and the Ried shoe-bombing plot was against a plane leaving Paris.

Arabs who can't jump on the right bandwagon don't survive. When Arabs perceive we're winning, it'll be over.

Osama miscalculated the American response -- his best game plan is mystic. If he takes us on again, local Arab leaders will off him before we get the chance. They're getting tired of paying the piper for Osams's dances.

Bin Laden concedes that Sept. 11 failed to achieve al Qaeda's strategic goals. In fact, events since then have moved in just the opposite direction. The problem was the lack of political preparation in the Islamic world. The weakness among Arab regimes generally and Saudi Arabia particularly meant that the U.S. response -- rather than triggering massive anti-American resistance -- resulted in broad-based collaboration.

If anyone, has studied or spent any time in this region, you must realize their ultimate goal:

The re-establishment of the great Arab empire of the 8th-12th centuries.

Attacking the U.S. is viewed as an extension of an attack on the House of Saud. AQ knows that. Thus why the Eurocowards have thus far been immune. Israel is also irrelevant. A study of the Koran and Islamic history indicates that the liberation of Mecca and Medinah are much more critical to the radical Arab movements. This is a civil war waiting to happen and the original tribes outside of the House of Saud have chosen sides. It is only a matter of time before the infighting begins. Fill your tank up now and every week until then....

Somebody is doing tapes.I don't think it's OBL and I don't think the army will tell us that. This is war and disinformation is a necessary part of war. Without his body or his DNA it is better that he be considered as alive and functioning lest the world and our on Crats rise up to scream that OBL is dead the war is over bring the troops home. So long as he is "alive" they get little audience for that sort of thing. Many of the Joe Blows of the US and the world see this as a criminal manhunt rather than as a war because that is how the government presented this sort of thing before 9-11. It is still PC to not allow animosity towards Islam and Moslems the way our press and government demonized nips and krauts in WWII so we have to keep an individual supervillain for that purpose. Yes. OBL could could possibly remain alive but I doubt it. If a vlear videotape is issued starring OBL that indicates conclusively that he is alive, with, say, a current newspaper in the picture and no evidence of creative splicing, then I would accept that he is alive. But AQ doesn't do videos any more. They are harder to fake than audios.

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