Democrats and Democratic Leaners
Posted on 12/09/2003 4:00:18 AM PST by RWR8189
PRINCETON, NJ -- With little over a month until the first contest for delegates to the Democratic National Convention, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey of Democrats shows, for the first time, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has moved into first place for his party's nomination among Democrats nationally. Twenty-five percent of registered voters who identify with or lean to the Democratic Party say they are supporting Dean for the nomination. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark ranks second with 17%. Three weeks ago, Dean and Clark were tied at 17%.
| Candidate Preference Among Registered Voters: Democrats and Democratic Leaners |
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The latest figures, with Dean at the top of the list of candidates, represent a major change in the nomination contest. Shortly after Clark entered the race in September, he led with 22% support, compared with 13% for Dean, and 10% to 11% for the other three major candidates. Since then, Clark's support has waned somewhat, while Dean's has nearly doubled.
From a long-term perspective, the race has changed even more significantly. Late in the spring of this year Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry led among Democrats, while Dean was near the bottom of the list. Since then, both Lieberman and in particular Kerry have dropped significantly as Dean has risen in the poll's rankings.
Many observers had already anointed Dean as the Democratic front-runner, given his advantages in fund raising over the other candidates, his endorsements, and his considerable lead in polls conducted in New Hampshire -- the traditional first primary in the nation and the one that often sets the tone for the nomination campaign. Now, for the first time, voters' preferences are aligned with this punditry.
Most polls conducted in New Hampshire show Dean with a significant lead there, and other polls suggest that Dean is competitive in Iowa, whose caucuses will be held January 19. Since New Hampshire is contiguous to Kerry's home state of Massachusetts, it has generally been considered important for him to have a strong showing there. Similarly, Gephardt has put a great deal of campaigning emphasis in Iowa, which is contiguous to his home state of Missouri, and whose caucuses he won in 1988. If Dean wins in both of those states, it is possible that the campaigns of Gephardt and Kerry would be fatally hurt. That would leave Clark, Lieberman, and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as the other candidates with a reasonable chance of competing with Dean.
Dean Leads Among Liberals, Holds His Own Among Moderates
Candidate Support Among All Democrats, Compared by Ideology |
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Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Dean |
40 |
17 |
11 |
|
Clark |
11 |
19 |
17 |
|
Gephardt |
9 |
10 |
25 |
|
Lieberman |
8 |
11 |
13 |
|
Kerry |
6 |
8 |
6 |
|
Edwards |
6 |
8 |
9 |
The latest results show Dean with especially strong support among Democrats who identify as liberals. He leads Clark, his next closest challenger, by 29 points (40% vs. 11%) among this group. Among moderate Democrats, Clark and Dean are closely matched for the lead. Among the relatively small group of Democrats who identify as conservatives, Gephardt holds a statistically significant lead over Dean and Lieberman. Dean garners just 11% of the conservative vote.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,004 national adults, aged 18 years and older, conducted Dec. 5-7, 2003. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 465 Democrats and Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 402 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [ROTATED:Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, Former Illinois Senator, Carol Moseley Braun, Retired General, Wesley Clark]
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None/ other/ no opin. |
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|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Democrats/Democratic Leaners |
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|
2003 Dec 5-7 |
22 |
17 |
13 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
-- |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2003 Nov 14-16 |
16 |
16 |
12 |
14 |
5 |
10 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
-- |
15 |
|
|
2003 Nov 10-12 |
16 |
13 |
11 |
15 |
9 |
9 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
-- |
17 |
|
|
2003 Oct 24-26 |
15 |
15 |
12 |
11 |
6 |
9 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
-- |
20 |
|
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
13 |
19 |
9 |
12 |
5 |
10 |
5 |
7 |
3 |
-- |
17 |
|
|
2003 Oct 6-8 ^ |
15 |
20 |
8 |
13 |
3 |
12 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
-- |
18 |
|
|
2003 Sep 19-21 |
12 |
21 |
9 |
11 |
4 |
12 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
17 |
|
|
2003 Sep 8-10 |
13 |
9 |
15 |
12 |
5 |
11 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
20 |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
11 |
2 |
13 |
23 |
5 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
22 |
|
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
14 |
-- |
14 |
17 |
6 |
12 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
21 |
|
|
2003 Jul 25-27 |
10 |
-- |
14 |
20 |
6 |
16 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
16 |
|
|
2003 Jun 12-18 |
6 |
-- |
15 |
20 |
7 |
13 |
6 |
7 |
1 |
6 |
19 |
|
|
2003 May 31-Jun 1 |
5 |
-- |
14 |
21 |
7 |
16 |
3 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
20 |
|
|
2003 Apr 22-23 |
6 |
-- |
15 |
23 |
9 |
17 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
15 |
|
|
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|
Democrats/Democratic Leaners Who Are Registered to Vote |
||||||||||||
|
2003 Dec 5-7 |
25 |
17 |
14 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
-- |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2003 Nov 14-16 |
17 |
17 |
13 |
13 |
6 |
9 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
-- |
13 |
|
|
2003 Nov 10-12 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
15 |
7 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
-- |
15 |
|
|
2003 Oct 24-26 |
16 |
15 |
12 |
12 |
6 |
10 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
-- |
18 |
|
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
13 |
18 |
10 |
13 |
6 |
11 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
-- |
15 |
|
|
2003 Oct 6-8 ^ |
16 |
21 |
8 |
13 |
2 |
13 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
-- |
15 |
|
|
2003 Sep 19-21 |
13 |
22 |
11 |
10 |
4 |
11 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
16 |
|
|
2003 Sep 8-10 |
14 |
10 |
16 |
13 |
5 |
12 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
17 |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
12 |
2 |
13 |
23 |
5 |
10 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
|
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
15 |
-- |
15 |
18 |
5 |
12 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
19 |
|
|
2003 Jul 25-27 |
11 |
-- |
16 |
21 |
6 |
15 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
14 |
|
|
2003 Jun 12-18 |
7 |
-- |
17 |
21 |
6 |
13 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
7 |
17 |
|
|
2003 May 31-Jun 1 |
5 |
-- |
14 |
20 |
6 |
17 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
4 |
21 |
|
|
2003 Apr 22-23 |
6 |
-- |
16 |
22 |
8 |
18 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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^ |
NOTE: Bob Graham dropped out of race on Oct. 6, his name was removed from question for Oct. 7-8 interviewing and in subsequent polls; "Graham" responses from Oct. 6 included in "other" category. |
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Bush, if they look closer. Dean sees gun ownership as a state perogative - which means states could restrict or ban gun ownership without the interference of a Dean Administration, whereas he should properly see it as a federal, 2nd Amendment right - and for whatever problems exist with the Bush Admin and the nasty-looking rifle ban, it is the position of his Justice Department that the 2nd Amendment infers an individual, not a collective right.
Yes, President Bush signed into law two bills that repealed the federal ban on any pilots ever being armed.
President Bush also Ordered Attorney-General Ashcroft to formally notify the Supreme Court that the OFFICIAL U.S. government position on the 2nd Amendment is that it supports INDIVIDUAL rights to own firearms, NOT a leftist-imagined *collective* right.
And President Bush told the United Nations we weren't interested in their plans for gun control (i.e. the International Ban on Small Arms Trafficking Treaty), too.
You'll also find that President Bush has been working with Congress to give full immunity to all American firearms manufacturers from frivolous lawsuits by cities and states and various left-wing organizations.
Good:
1. Told the UN to go to hell.
2. Said he's sign a bill stopping frivolous gun manufacturers.
3. Said the 2nd Amendment is an individual right. Bad:
1. Campaign finance law.
2. SAID he'd sign the AW ban renewal(what he does determines my vote).
Why would the AW Ban renewal even make it to the President's desk? Also, wouldn't you add to your "good" list the signing into law of two bills that armed pilots? Surely that's better than vetoing them.
Another thing: wouldn't you add Governor Bush's signing into law CCW for Texas?
ANYTHING can happen. Currently, I don't expect it to, but another Columbine and all bets are off.
I forgot armed pilots. Minor win, but I still can't carry there.
Not for his record as president. It was important in the 2000 race, but 04 is different.
If he had vetoed CCW as governor, you wouldn't hold it against him in '04?!
His signing CCW was more important to me than that. I would still be upset today if he had vetoed it instead.
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