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Dean Takes Front-Runner Status Nationally for First Time
Gallup News Service ^ | December 9, 2003 | Frank Newport

Posted on 12/09/2003 4:00:18 AM PST by RWR8189

PRINCETON, NJ -- With little over a month until the first contest for delegates to the Democratic National Convention, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey of Democrats shows, for the first time, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has moved into first place for his party's nomination among Democrats nationally. Twenty-five percent of registered voters who identify with or lean to the Democratic Party say they are supporting Dean for the nomination. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark ranks second with 17%. Three weeks ago, Dean and Clark were tied at 17%.

Candidate Preference Among Registered Voters:
Democrats and Democratic Leaners

The latest figures, with Dean at the top of the list of candidates, represent a major change in the nomination contest. Shortly after Clark entered the race in September, he led with 22% support, compared with 13% for Dean, and 10% to 11% for the other three major candidates. Since then, Clark's support has waned somewhat, while Dean's has nearly doubled.

From a long-term perspective, the race has changed even more significantly. Late in the spring of this year Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry led among Democrats, while Dean was near the bottom of the list. Since then, both Lieberman and in particular Kerry have dropped significantly as Dean has risen in the poll's rankings.

Many observers had already anointed Dean as the Democratic front-runner, given his advantages in fund raising over the other candidates, his endorsements, and his considerable lead in polls conducted in New Hampshire -- the traditional first primary in the nation and the one that often sets the tone for the nomination campaign. Now, for the first time, voters' preferences are aligned with this punditry.

Most polls conducted in New Hampshire show Dean with a significant lead there, and other polls suggest that Dean is competitive in Iowa, whose caucuses will be held January 19. Since New Hampshire is contiguous to Kerry's home state of Massachusetts, it has generally been considered important for him to have a strong showing there. Similarly, Gephardt has put a great deal of campaigning emphasis in Iowa, which is contiguous to his home state of Missouri, and whose caucuses he won in 1988. If Dean wins in both of those states, it is possible that the campaigns of Gephardt and Kerry would be fatally hurt. That would leave Clark, Lieberman, and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as the other candidates with a reasonable chance of competing with Dean.

Dean Leads Among Liberals, Holds His Own Among Moderates

Candidate Support Among All Democrats, Compared by Ideology

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

%

%

%

Dean

40

17

11

Clark

11

19

17

Gephardt

9

10

25

Lieberman

8

11

13

Kerry

6

8

6

Edwards

6

8

9

The latest results show Dean with especially strong support among Democrats who identify as liberals. He leads Clark, his next closest challenger, by 29 points (40% vs. 11%) among this group. Among moderate Democrats, Clark and Dean are closely matched for the lead. Among the relatively small group of Democrats who identify as conservatives, Gephardt holds a statistically significant lead over Dean and Lieberman. Dean garners just 11% of the conservative vote.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,004 national adults, aged 18 years and older, conducted Dec. 5-7, 2003. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 465 Democrats and Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 402 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [ROTATED:Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, Former Illinois Senator, Carol Moseley Braun, Retired General, Wesley Clark]





Dean





Clark




Gep-hardt



Lieb-erman



Ed-wards




Kerry




Braun




Sharp-ton




Kuc-inich




Gra-ham

None/ other/ no opin.

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Democrats/Democratic Leaners

2003 Dec 5-7

22

17

13

10

7

7

5

4

2

--

13

2003 Nov 14-16

16

16

12

14

5

10

5

4

3

--

15

2003 Nov 10-12

16

13

11

15

9

9

4

3

3

--

17

2003 Oct 24-26

15

15

12

11

6

9

4

6

2

--

20

2003 Oct 10-12

13

19

9

12

5

10

5

7

3

--

17

2003 Oct 6-8 ^

15

20

8

13

3

12

4

5

2

--

18

2003 Sep 19-21

12

21

9

11

4

12

3

5

2

4

17

2003 Sep 8-10

13

9

15

12

5

11

5

3

2

5

20

2003 Aug 25-26

11

2

13

23

5

9

4

4

1

6

22

2003 Aug 4-6

14

--

14

17

6

12

5

4

2

5

21

2003 Jul 25-27

10

--

14

20

6

16

6

5

2

5

16

2003 Jun 12-18

6

--

15

20

7

13

6

7

1

6

19

2003 May 31-Jun 1

5

--

14

21

7

16

3

7

3

4

20

2003 Apr 22-23

6

--

15

23

9

17

4

3

3

5

15

Democrats/Democratic Leaners Who Are Registered to Vote

2003 Dec 5-7

25

17

14

10

7

7

5

3

2

--

10

2003 Nov 14-16

17

17

13

13

6

9

4

5

3

--

13

2003 Nov 10-12

17

14

12

15

7

10

4

3

3

--

15

2003 Oct 24-26

16

15

12

12

6

10

4

6

1

--

18

2003 Oct 10-12

13

18

10

13

6

11

5

6

3

--

15

2003 Oct 6-8 ^

16

21

8

13

2

13

4

6

2

--

15

2003 Sep 19-21

13

22

11

10

4

11

3

4

2

4

16

2003 Sep 8-10

14

10

16

13

5

12

4

2

2

5

17

2003 Aug 25-26

12

2

13

23

5

10

5

4

1

4

21

2003 Aug 4-6

15

--

15

18

5

12

5

4

2

5

19

2003 Jul 25-27

11

--

16

21

6

15

6

5

2

4

14

2003 Jun 12-18

7

--

17

21

6

13

5

6

1

7

17

2003 May 31-Jun 1

5

--

14

20

6

17

4

7

2

4

21

2003 Apr 22-23

6

--

16

22

8

18

4

3

3

5

15

^

NOTE: Bob Graham dropped out of race on Oct. 6, his name was removed from question for Oct. 7-8 interviewing and in subsequent polls; "Graham" responses from Oct. 6 included in "other" category.



TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dean; gallup; gephardt; howarddean; johnkerry; polls; wesleyclark
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To: j_k_l
Actually, the socially conservative, "blue collar" wing of the DNC continues to have good relationships with the NRA. Rep. John Dingell (D) of Michigan is a classic example of an NRA supported Democrat.

Let me emphasize the point that it was those pro-life, pro-gun, working class, "Reagan Democrats" who delivered the critical swing votes that insured the presidency for Dubya in 2000. Though Bush will once again get the single issue pro-life voters next year, the pro-gun voters will be a lot more problematic unless Bush's current White House political advisors are replaced with those who oppose renewal the 1994 assault weapons ban, and Bush himself states he will NOT sign that bill.
21 posted on 12/09/2003 7:50:33 AM PST by VasilyZaitsev
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To: VasilyZaitsev
Soooo, just who will all those gun-owning Reagan Democrats, independents, union members, etc., who decisively supported Clinton over Dole in 1996, and Bush over Gore in 2000, be voting for next November?

Bush, if they look closer. Dean sees gun ownership as a state perogative - which means states could restrict or ban gun ownership without the interference of a Dean Administration, whereas he should properly see it as a federal, 2nd Amendment right - and for whatever problems exist with the Bush Admin and the nasty-looking rifle ban, it is the position of his Justice Department that the 2nd Amendment infers an individual, not a collective right.

22 posted on 12/09/2003 7:55:31 AM PST by dirtboy (New Ben and Jerry's flavor - Howard Dean Swirl - no ice cream, just fruit at bottom)
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To: VasilyZaitsev
If the "the socially conservative, "blue collar" wing of the DNC" or members of the NRA vote for Dean, they get what they deserve.

Wisdom calls for the voter to compare the two canidates views on ALL, eh hmmmm A - L - L the issues and vote for the one who scores higher. There are only two canidates that have a chance to win. It's A or B (C is a vote for B and not voting is a vote for B).
23 posted on 12/09/2003 8:37:02 AM PST by j_k_l
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To: AmericanMade1776


Is it just me or does it look like the guy behind him is holding up his right arm? Is Dean that skewed to the left?
24 posted on 12/09/2003 8:45:12 AM PST by j_k_l (If Dean is the answer, it must have been a stupid question)
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To: j_k_l
Yes..The Man behind Dean is holding up his arm with his right hand and GOOSING him with his Left...ironic..isn't it , that the right hand is supportive and the left hand is goosing.
25 posted on 12/09/2003 11:15:35 AM PST by AmericanMade1776
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To: RWR8189
I have a theory, based on the recent trend in the NH primaries.
The man to watch is not who comes out in front, but who comes in second place.

1992: #1 Paul Tsongas
#2 Bill Clinton
1996: #1 Pat Buchanon
#2 Bob Dole
2000: #1 John McCain
#2 George W. Bush

Then again, I could be wrong.
26 posted on 12/09/2003 11:22:36 AM PST by shekkian
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To: VasilyZaitsev; Dan from Michigan
"What did NRA members gain by working so hard to elect Dubya in 2000? Have any of the gun control laws passed during Clinton's two terms been repealed?"

Yes, President Bush signed into law two bills that repealed the federal ban on any pilots ever being armed.

President Bush also Ordered Attorney-General Ashcroft to formally notify the Supreme Court that the OFFICIAL U.S. government position on the 2nd Amendment is that it supports INDIVIDUAL rights to own firearms, NOT a leftist-imagined *collective* right.


And President Bush told the United Nations we weren't interested in their plans for gun control (i.e. the International Ban on Small Arms Trafficking Treaty), too.

You'll also find that President Bush has been working with Congress to give full immunity to all American firearms manufacturers from frivolous lawsuits by cities and states and various left-wing organizations.

27 posted on 12/09/2003 11:43:46 AM PST by Southack (Media bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Southack; VasilyZaitsev
Bush is a mixed bag on this issue.

Good:
1. Told the UN to go to hell.
2. Said he's sign a bill stopping frivolous gun manufacturers.
3. Said the 2nd Amendment is an individual right. Bad:
1. Campaign finance law.
2. SAID he'd sign the AW ban renewal(what he does determines my vote).

28 posted on 12/09/2003 12:11:53 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("if you wanna run cool, you got to run, on heavy heavy fuel" - Dire Straits)
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To: Dan from Michigan
Why would the AW Ban renewal even make it to the President's desk?

Also, wouldn't you add to your "good" list the signing into law of two bills that armed pilots? Surely that's better than vetoing them.

29 posted on 12/09/2003 12:21:54 PM PST by Southack (Media bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Dan from Michigan
Another thing: wouldn't you add Governor Bush's signing into law CCW for Texas?
30 posted on 12/09/2003 12:23:00 PM PST by Southack (Media bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Southack
Why would the AW Ban renewal even make it to the President's desk?

ANYTHING can happen. Currently, I don't expect it to, but another Columbine and all bets are off.

I forgot armed pilots. Minor win, but I still can't carry there.

31 posted on 12/09/2003 7:08:47 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("if you wanna run cool, you got to run, on heavy heavy fuel" - Dire Straits)
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To: Southack
Another thing: wouldn't you add Governor Bush's signing into law CCW for Texas?

Not for his record as president. It was important in the 2000 race, but 04 is different.

32 posted on 12/09/2003 7:09:44 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("if you wanna run cool, you got to run, on heavy heavy fuel" - Dire Straits)
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To: Dan from Michigan
"Not for his record as president. It was important in the 2000 race, but 04 is different."

If he had vetoed CCW as governor, you wouldn't hold it against him in '04?!

His signing CCW was more important to me than that. I would still be upset today if he had vetoed it instead.

33 posted on 12/09/2003 10:04:01 PM PST by Southack (Media bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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