The Senate Races of 2004

None ^ | 12/10/02 | RepublicanWizard

[republicanwizard]

Jim Robinson and fellow Freepers,

I felt it necessary to set up a big post to follow developing news about the 2004 Senate races. Although we lost in Louisiana, I'm still reasonably ecstatic over our chances in 2004.

Please post any developing news on this thread, such as candidates and polls.

Thanks.

[republicanwizard]

Arlen Specter, with five million in the bank, has declared his bid for re-election.

This race is over. Unless there is a primary challenge, Specter is re-elected.

[JohnnyZ]

Well, okay, if you want to start one from scratch.

FReepers may want to read through 2004 Senate Election List and Senate Outlook, 2004 Elections before posting questions on this thread to see if they've been covered.

The next big news to come out will be Frank Murkowski's replacement in Alaska, expected today or tomorrow, followed by various "I will run" "I won't run" declarations in the 34 races.

[republicanwizard]

Mind your own business Johnny. I don't know how to find those threads or to create them, but here is something to keep us all up to date.

[republicanwizard]

Mind your own business Johnny. I don't know how to find those threads or to create them, but here is something to keep us all up to date.

[The Old Hoosier]

Isn't it time to re-name this forum?

[Jim Robinson]

60 in 04!

[EternalVigilance]

60 in 04!

Good goal. And let's make em conservatives, while we're at it.

...and about 50 more conservatives in the House would be nice, too.

[JohnnyZ]

wizard, didn't mean to cause offense, just thought it a little odd to see a new thread on this subject. (I believe a search for '2004 Senate' would have revealed the existing threads, although conversation there had certainly slacked off.) I'm going along with it, though, as you see. The libertarian tendencies on this board just can't be controlled! :)

Roll Call has a couple relevant articles up, one stating that Connecticut Republican Party chairman Chris Depino is a likely challenger to Sen. Chris Dodd and another covering the Specter primary challenge possibility.

[cookcounty]

Bad news in Illinois

Peter Fitzgerald (R) is up for re-election in 2004. He is a highly independent maverick who votes mostly conservative, Illinois press tags him as the "member of the Senate least-liked by his colleagues.".

In '98 he won against the hapless Carol Mosely Braun. In his self-financed television ads, he never spoke once (he has a very squeaky voice), preferring to rely on voice-overs, and avoided public speaking.

The GOP leadership (If the Illinois GOP can be said to have "leaders") is openly seeking another candidate to replace him.

We lost our chance with Drab Durbin in November, the #1 obstructionist after L'il Tommy. Unfortunately, we picked a candidate, Jim Durkin, who had zero money, no organization, and no discernable personality, Furthermore, he tied his hopes to the useless "star" of John McCain, who made exactly one 45 minute visit to Illinois for his young loyalist.

[JohnnyZ]

Durkin was a McCainiac? So THAT's why he didn't get much play from the white house!

In Alaska news, Sen. Murkowski can't make up his mind and has left for Washington for 10 days to pack up his things, and probably won't announce a decision until he gets back. How the hell hard is it, Frank? SARAH PALIN! Tax-cutting pro-growth pro-life conservative!

[JohnnyZ]

Minority Leader Tom Daschle disagrees. He seems to think the D's will pick up 5 seats in 2004, "just like 2000". I'm not sure how he's counting, but I would guess it's something like: Arizona (retirement), Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Pennsylvania.

Daschle predicts 5-seat gain

[spintreebob]

Durkin was a McCainiac? So THAT's why he didn't get much play from the white house

Due to the Illinois-Gov-George-Ryan-disaster, no big name, big money guy wanted martyrdom. But the bi-partisan combine did not want to energize the base. So they maneuvered a three way race between their pro-gun-control, pro-tax-increase "conservative" and two true conservatives. All three were lousy campaigners.

I've had several talks with experts Morton Blackwell sends around the country teaching Campaign Leadership. They claimed to be close to Karl Rove and the Bush political operation. They did not have a clue what was happening in Illinois. They were openly supporting George Ryan, Rich Juliano and all those convicted felons. Honesty vs corruption must be the #1 issue of a winning coalition. Pro-life, pro-2A, low-tax, school-choice people are needed in the coalition. But those issues have to play second fiddle to the issue that unites us. Convincing the single issue people in the coalition that this is necessary to win is difficult. Yet it is so clear that the bi-partisan combine is the real obstacle on each of their single issues.

Currently Fitzgerald and his FAB5 friends in the State Senate have the high ground on honesty vs corruption. But the Dem leaders are smart-like-Bill. Unless the Topinkas and Hasterts get behind Fitzgerald and his allies, the Dems will gain the high ground through a brilliant PR campaign.

[nospinzone]

Minority Leader Tom Daschle disagrees. He seems to think the D's will pick up 5 seats in 2004, "just like 2000". I'm not sure how he's counting, but I would guess it's something like: Arizona (retirement), Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Pennsylvania.

Heh Heh. Wait until the delirium of the Louisiana victory wears off, at which point he'll realize his goose is cooked.

[JohnnyZ]

Speculation that Daschle won't run again for senate, that if he doesn't some schmuck state senator will, and that Thune & Janklow will square off in a GOP senate primary regardless:

Daschle
Thune's future
Thune v Janklow
Volesky

Good opportunity for a pickup, especially if Daschle retires. Also cute how the paper compares him to McGovern, who was defeated for reelection after running one too many times.

[republicanwizard]

His chances of picking up Pennsylvania is slim and none. Specter will wipe the walls with whatever third-rate Democrat decides to run.

[republicanwizard]

Thanks JohnnyZ! This is the reason I created this post.

I think either Thune or Janklow would take the seat, but we first need to avoid a primary. To avoid the primary, one has to become AG Secretary. Which one do you think is stronger to take on Daschle. Janklow has the gravitas; Thune has the energy.

Too bad, Bush didn't deny South Dakota their idiotic farm protection; all the cheating in the world would not have saved Johnson then. Bush should have waited until after the election!

[JohnnyZ]

Thune is probably more popular in the state because Janklow is a very blunt guy and ticked off some folks as governor -- of course, he still ended up winning Rep. 53-46. I'm thinking Janklow will prevail, and would be a stronger candidate against Daschle at least -- he's very strong-willed. As the Argus Leader guy says, the D's don't have much to go with, unless they try Stephanie Herseth for Senate, but there's no reason to think SoDak would give her the nod either. Thune might be best off going back to Rep or taking an Admin job until Johnson's seat comes up again -- presumably Johnson will be an insignificant minority senator at that point, without Daschle to hold his hand and spoon-feed him legislation.

The Dakotas are a Big Deal this year, as Byron Dorgan and Earl Pomeroy are up in NoDak. This is the best year to finally take down what they call all-Democratic "Team North Dakota" and then smack down Kent Conrad in 2006.

[republicanwizard]

Thanks. However, if Daschle doesn't run, then I want Thune to be our candidate.

If Daschle runs again, then we need someone with enough heft to beat him, and that means Janklow. No question.

I agree with you about North Dakota. We need to take out Pomeroy and Conrad. As long as the Dakotas send 4 Democrats to the Senate, we cannot have a solid majority. Get rid of those 4, and we have a majority for a generation.

[republicanwizard]

By my count, we can easily pick up the following seats:

North Dakota
South Dakota
Wisconsin
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina
California

We also have excellent chances, if the DemoRAT retires, in Florida, Indiana, and Louisiana. If we play our cards right, and get rid of Trent Lott, we could have the near super-majority of which we have dreamed so long.

+10 seats should be our objective.

[nospinzone]

By my count, we can easily pick up the following seats:

North Dakota
South Dakota
Wisconsin
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina
California

We also have excellent chances, if the DemoRAT retires, in Florida, Indiana, and Louisiana. If we play our cards right, and get rid of Trent Lott, we could have the near super-majority of which we have dreamed so long.

Yeah, despite the debacle here in Louisiana I feel good about 2004 if Breaux steps down or becomes governor. The GOP will pick a solid frontrunner early on, I say Rep. Billy Tauzin will be tapped, if not him Vitter.