Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Model projects 91% chance Trump will get re-elected
Foxbusiness.com ^ | July 2nd, 2020 | Helmut Norpoth

Posted on 07/03/2020 7:03:22 PM PDT by entropy12

Jul 02, 202007:49 Model projects 91% chance Trump will get re-elected Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth says the battleground state polls in 2016 were 'way off' and that his model has correctly predicted 24 out of 26 of the past presidential elections.

(Excerpt) Read more at foxbusiness.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2020election; dobbs; election; election2016; election2020; helmutnorpoth; norpoth; primarymodel; stonybrook; stonybrooku; trump
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-54 next last
To: entropy12

Ping


21 posted on 07/03/2020 7:48:35 PM PDT by ducttape45 ("Righteousness exalteth a nation; but sin is a reproach to any people." Proverbs 14:34)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: entropy12

“Today we will set history and history’s record straight.” With this line the lines are drawn.


22 posted on 07/03/2020 8:14:20 PM PDT by jimfree (My19 y/o granddaughter continues to have more quality exec experience than an 8 year Obama.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: entropy12

They’re out there as I knew they would be. One obviously believes the House was legitimately won back by the Democrats without the use of voter fraud. I guess he thinks vote harvesting has something to do with agriculture and not cheating. The pearl clutches have a leader.


23 posted on 07/03/2020 8:15:47 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: entropy12

Good news, but let’s face it...any of these models that say XX% chance of winning for any candidate are just numbers pulled from their a$$es.


24 posted on 07/03/2020 8:27:29 PM PDT by The Accused
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: The Accused

What about record of 24 out of 26 elections called correctly in past?


25 posted on 07/03/2020 8:30:11 PM PDT by entropy12 (covid-19 separates the fearful from the freedom loving! If I am not afraid, no one should be.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: entropy12

It’s not his record I am questioning nor his reasons for believing Trump will win...it’s the “91% chance” that I think is just bull.


26 posted on 07/03/2020 8:35:53 PM PDT by The Accused
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: entropy12; All

Send “Orange Man Bad” federal and state government desperate Democrats and RINOs home in November!

Supporting PDJT with a new patriot Congress and state government leaders that will promise to fully support his already excellent work for MAGA and stopping SARS-CoV-2 will effectively give fast-working Trump a “third term” in office imo.


27 posted on 07/03/2020 8:52:30 PM PDT by Amendment10
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: entropy12

100% by Election Day.


28 posted on 07/03/2020 9:17:18 PM PDT by Shark Ranger
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator

Yet you worship all of the pollsters who guaranteed a Hilliary! Victory AND ignore the pollsters that badly missed the SENATE in 2018 including Florida, Missouri and Indiana.

Explain that?


29 posted on 07/03/2020 9:19:37 PM PDT by TexasGurl24
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: TexasGurl24

Oh my God. You fool. The pollsters had Hillary winning the popular vote by 3 percent. Oops she won it by 2 percent. Darn. And you idiot routinely said we’d win 10 additional seats in 2018 in the house. Disgraceful.


30 posted on 07/03/2020 10:18:14 PM PDT by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: entropy12

This guy is wrong. Hillary, I mean Biden will win 90 to 10. There. Fixed it. I learned it in the NYT.


31 posted on 07/03/2020 10:44:24 PM PDT by Sir Bangaz Cracka (Slamming dat white cracka'a head into dat sidewalk causin he be scared)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
IOW, there's a 9% chance of a civilization-destroying asteroid impact.

32 posted on 07/03/2020 11:21:42 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: entropy12

Forget polls and predictions and get out the vote in November for President Trump.

JoMa


33 posted on 07/04/2020 1:22:22 AM PDT by joma89 (Buy weapons and ammo, folks.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: entropy12

1. That is almost exactly the probability that my model gives Trump.

2. Despite my own model agreeing, I have very little confidence in any model this year.

To put numbers on a probability, you have to have comparable data. We have no reason to believe that our previous data are relevant to 2020. We have the “plague”, and, regardless of how real it is, it’s done exceptionally grave damage to our economy. We’ve got 90% of the news media and 50% of politicians openly supporting riots, arson, and domestic terrorism. This is a very strange year. I’m optimistic, but I just tripled my planned ammo orders for the rest of the year. [Purely for sporting purposes, because the Second Amendment is about duck hunting.]


34 posted on 07/04/2020 3:47:42 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: entropy12

I saw him interviewed last week and it was pretty funny. The interviewer (Bartiromo maybe? Can’t recall) asked him how many pollsters contact him for consultation, etc., considering his record of prediction. “None.” He just had this sh!t-eating grin, confident in the knowledge that he beats the pollsters every time.


35 posted on 07/04/2020 4:03:19 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam (Trump lost his mojo the day Fauci took over the country.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator

You are a lying sack of trash. I never once said anything about “gaining 10 seats.”

Your precious 2016 pollsters had Hilliary! winning comfortably in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, ahd Michigan. The final three North Carolina polls had Hilliary! ahead. All but two of the final polls in Florida had Hilliary! ahead.

Your precious 2018 polls had Nelson AND Gillum winning by SEVEN (7) points in Florida.

The final Fox News Poll in Indiana had Donnelly winning by 7. HE LOST BY 6. That’s a 13 point miss.

You already were temporarily zotted once here for coming on here and hyping every special election for dog catcher for the Rats.

Never mind that this year, the GOP flipped 5 seats to the Democrats 1, and YOU NEVER POSTED A SINGLE ONE OF THOSE.

Because you are a pathetic concern troll.

Maybe you need to get back on the radar?


36 posted on 07/04/2020 6:29:50 AM PDT by TexasGurl24
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: TexasGurl24

Lol. You’re cute. You’ve been here 3 years. Scram. You are worthless!


37 posted on 07/04/2020 7:47:16 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator

We’ve gone through this before. Specifically, between you and I. Your posting history is very revealing.

You were concern trolling with various special election trash all through 2018. Then, suddenly, when the GOP started winning special elections you stopped.

Amazing how that works.

You specifically apologized for the behavior before, after a temp zot. Should I bring up that post and link it here?

Your attempt to deflect isn’t working.


38 posted on 07/04/2020 8:18:32 AM PDT by TexasGurl24
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: TexasGurl24

Grow up. We just lost one this week. I was pissed about 2018 as you fools were predicting a 10 seat pick up. And once we lost the house I was pissed more while you were slobbering over yourself with glee. Disgusting!!!!


39 posted on 07/04/2020 9:19:55 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator

We won five, you sad little worm. It’s a five to one advantage in 2020 in legislative elections.

You didn’t post a single victory and here you are posting about the 1 instead of the five? Why?

You are a pathetic concern troll.


40 posted on 07/04/2020 9:56:15 AM PDT by TexasGurl24
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-54 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson