Posted on 07/03/2020 7:03:22 PM PDT by entropy12
Jul 02, 202007:49 Model projects 91% chance Trump will get re-elected Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth says the battleground state polls in 2016 were 'way off' and that his model has correctly predicted 24 out of 26 of the past presidential elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxbusiness.com ...
Ping
“Today we will set history and history’s record straight.” With this line the lines are drawn.
They’re out there as I knew they would be. One obviously believes the House was legitimately won back by the Democrats without the use of voter fraud. I guess he thinks vote harvesting has something to do with agriculture and not cheating. The pearl clutches have a leader.
Good news, but let’s face it...any of these models that say XX% chance of winning for any candidate are just numbers pulled from their a$$es.
What about record of 24 out of 26 elections called correctly in past?
It’s not his record I am questioning nor his reasons for believing Trump will win...it’s the “91% chance” that I think is just bull.
Send “Orange Man Bad” federal and state government desperate Democrats and RINOs home in November!
Supporting PDJT with a new patriot Congress and state government leaders that will promise to fully support his already excellent work for MAGA and stopping SARS-CoV-2 will effectively give fast-working Trump a “third term” in office imo.
100% by Election Day.
Yet you worship all of the pollsters who guaranteed a Hilliary! Victory AND ignore the pollsters that badly missed the SENATE in 2018 including Florida, Missouri and Indiana.
Explain that?
Oh my God. You fool. The pollsters had Hillary winning the popular vote by 3 percent. Oops she won it by 2 percent. Darn. And you idiot routinely said we’d win 10 additional seats in 2018 in the house. Disgraceful.
This guy is wrong. Hillary, I mean Biden will win 90 to 10. There. Fixed it. I learned it in the NYT.
IOW, there's a 9% chance of a civilization-destroying asteroid impact.
Forget polls and predictions and get out the vote in November for President Trump.
JoMa
1. That is almost exactly the probability that my model gives Trump.
2. Despite my own model agreeing, I have very little confidence in any model this year.
To put numbers on a probability, you have to have comparable data. We have no reason to believe that our previous data are relevant to 2020. We have the “plague”, and, regardless of how real it is, it’s done exceptionally grave damage to our economy. We’ve got 90% of the news media and 50% of politicians openly supporting riots, arson, and domestic terrorism. This is a very strange year. I’m optimistic, but I just tripled my planned ammo orders for the rest of the year. [Purely for sporting purposes, because the Second Amendment is about duck hunting.]
I saw him interviewed last week and it was pretty funny. The interviewer (Bartiromo maybe? Can’t recall) asked him how many pollsters contact him for consultation, etc., considering his record of prediction. “None.” He just had this sh!t-eating grin, confident in the knowledge that he beats the pollsters every time.
You are a lying sack of trash. I never once said anything about “gaining 10 seats.”
Your precious 2016 pollsters had Hilliary! winning comfortably in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, ahd Michigan. The final three North Carolina polls had Hilliary! ahead. All but two of the final polls in Florida had Hilliary! ahead.
Your precious 2018 polls had Nelson AND Gillum winning by SEVEN (7) points in Florida.
The final Fox News Poll in Indiana had Donnelly winning by 7. HE LOST BY 6. That’s a 13 point miss.
You already were temporarily zotted once here for coming on here and hyping every special election for dog catcher for the Rats.
Never mind that this year, the GOP flipped 5 seats to the Democrats 1, and YOU NEVER POSTED A SINGLE ONE OF THOSE.
Because you are a pathetic concern troll.
Maybe you need to get back on the radar?
Lol. You’re cute. You’ve been here 3 years. Scram. You are worthless!
We’ve gone through this before. Specifically, between you and I. Your posting history is very revealing.
You were concern trolling with various special election trash all through 2018. Then, suddenly, when the GOP started winning special elections you stopped.
Amazing how that works.
You specifically apologized for the behavior before, after a temp zot. Should I bring up that post and link it here?
Your attempt to deflect isn’t working.
Grow up. We just lost one this week. I was pissed about 2018 as you fools were predicting a 10 seat pick up. And once we lost the house I was pissed more while you were slobbering over yourself with glee. Disgusting!!!!
We won five, you sad little worm. It’s a five to one advantage in 2020 in legislative elections.
You didn’t post a single victory and here you are posting about the 1 instead of the five? Why?
You are a pathetic concern troll.
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