Posted on 10/10/2018 6:03:04 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot
University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato joins MSNBC's 'MTP Daily' with host Chuck Todd to discuss the Republicans struggling in states Trump won in 2016.
Sabato said Trump is in trouble in the Midwest, a part of the country where he did well in 2016, and it "seems to be flipping" in the midterm year. He said the states he carried, it appears, to elect Democratic Senators.
"Even if the Republicans hold the Senate given the very pro-Republican math that exists, President Trump is in trouble in some of these states," Sabato said. "He's fallen considerably as a whole."
"This also reminds us that 2016 was a choice," he said. "It wasn't simply that people decided to vote for Donald Trump in a vacuum. Many of them were voting against Hillary Clinton. Maybe you dispute the premise of it, but essentially it's a two-pronged decision."
Chuck Todd agreed with the premise and said the media made the mistake of believing the 2016 election was a "referendum on Trump when it was actually more of a referendum on [Hillary Clinton]."
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Sabato is nuts. Rasmussen says things are now tied up:
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
I don’t know. He was within 8 points of predicting the 2016 Presidential election. We should listen to him...not!
I don’t believe pollsters anymore, but they are generally in the ball park. When the overall picture in Arizona puts veteran fighter pilot Marsha McSally in an almost dead heat with a radical socialist protestor who wants open borders and the elimination of ICE, there is something very ugly going on in America. This wouldn’t have even been a contest in AZ ten years ago.
I believe it. And it’s sad to see.
because we can’t believe polling is unbiased, and due to people not really speaking the truth to pollsters anyway, i think the situation is fluid. the point is to not be complacent. take. the. fight. to. the. polls like it’s a presidential. VOTE!
There is a very “weird feel” to this sudden “blue wave” (post-Kavanaugh!) of “blue wave” stories in Hillary’s national socialist party press corpse.
NONE recognize the recent series of large, very enthusiastic, very-well attended Trump rallies all across the Midwest and FL.
NONE recognize that very few individual House district races threaten sitting (non-retiring) GOP conservatives, and the retiring Never-Trumpers GROPelites are the most liberal in the republican house lists.
Specific House polls across the board predict few losses - it’s always the mythical “generic ballot” that favors democrats.
The last few stories do recognize that individual Senate races are trending republican, but then come back with a conclusion “that if the democrats take the Senate and the House” they will do this, and that, and doom so-and-so. Impeachment by Nancy Pelosi’s House (and subsequent conviction by the Senate) always pushed under the table at this point.
Why is the national press corpse so foolish, so short-sighted so as to believe their inside-the-Beltway wishes and dreams - not the world’s reality? (Or have I answered by own question?)
There is no if about it.
President Trump is in trouble in some of these states,” Sabato said. “He's fallen considerably as a whole.”
Rasmussen has Trump at the highest approval he’s ever been
LOL, love the pic.
I suspect it’s just more triangulation. They know something BIG is about to come out that they can point to as the “culprit” for why their Blue Wave scenario won’t happen. The convergence of polls by election day is what governs these people. That’s how they make their money. They fool a core group of people into thinking that the public is fickle and changes allegiance at the drop of a hat. That way these scoundrels can get paid for their genius.
Only one thing motivates the media: SELL MORE COPY!
With less than a month to Election Day, the Generic Congressional Ballot is now dead even. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Another 45% would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Last week, 47% of voters said they would choose the Democratic candidate while 42% said they would choose the Republican. It is unclear whether the sudden jump to a tie vote is a reflection of the anger surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation process, but we will continue to watch this in the weeks ahead. (Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Expect the usual ten per cent hidden conservative support factor to reveal itself again, at least a modified red wave. Basically, after two years of Trump, what voters are going to be saying, “I don’t know, this isn’t going as well as I expected.” ?? Not many, and more than balanced by those saying “I think he’s not as bad as the media keep saying, and the Democrats are mentally ill.” That vote won’t be always eager to reveal itself to an anonymous survey taker either. Maybe there’s still the reluctant to admit factor at work.
Wrong Way Larry is a Democrat schmuck still milking dumb ass Democrats for their last nickle.
Most of everyone expects some Democrat House gains; most of everyone expects some Republican Senate gains.
Both sides will claim a "Wave".
If the repubs win, red wave; if the dems win, crime wave because it will only happen with massive voter fraud and election fraud
I trust Larry Sabato’s predictions as much as I would trust a fart, with the flu on muscle relaxers....
Larry is a good reason to avoid UVA. He is like the weather man.
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
But true...
Of those who vote, 40% will vote Dem and 40% will vote GOP. The real trick for the Dims will be convincing the remaining 20% they’re WORSE off under President Trump. That’s a hard sell, considering we have a roaring economy.
As Rush said yesterday, if they DON’T win the House in the midterms, we can expect a major meltdown from the Dims.
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