Posted on 11/06/2016 11:14:34 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Hillary Clinton is one state away from losing the presidential election, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver said Sunday.
While the Democratic presidential nominee has a 65.7 percent chance of winning the presidency on Tuesday, she is not "in a terribly safe position," the pollster said on ABC's "This Week." "The electoral map is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago," Silver said.
Silver came to notoriety by correctly predicting President Obama's victories in 2008 and 2012.
Clinton is weaker among Midwestern voters, while Obama had leads in states like Ohio....
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Even if SEPTA settles tomorrow, Tuesday will still be a mess given it takes time to restore power, etc.
>>If Pickles has a 67.5 percent chance of winning, how can she be poised to lose the race by the loss of just one state?
He seems to assume that the states are very highly correlated, but this is not really the case. Nonetheless, if NH has a 40% chance of flipping to Trump, and MI has a 23% chance, the probability of flipping at least one of the two must be greater than 40% unless they are 100% correlated:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/#now
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/#now
Four little more: And. Take. Two. Friends.
Already voted, in early voting, in Florida.
Sorry, cannot change my vote now. Not that I would.
Stop being lazy and do your own research. I don’t need to go find the original photo cause it’s her in the friggin picture.
Iowa is about 94% white.
You made the claim. The burden of proof is on you.
If you refuse to back up what you said with simple evidence, you forfeit the argument. You've been a Freeper long enough to know that.
I don’t know where Mr. Silver is coming from concerning polling.
After all, not only has polling been exposed as pro-establishment propaganda in this election, but polling models never included an extremely popular political outsider like Trump.
Was she convicted of that?
Do your own research. Stop being lazy.
I don't have to prove what you said. You do.
Now quit talking out of your alimentary exhaust orifice and provide the evidence.
Listen to what I am about to tell you.
Three years ago, the Pennsylvania legislature (house and senate controlled by Republicans) wanted to do something about the blatant fraud in Philadelphia. They introduced and passed a bill that would hence forth require an id to vote in Pennsylvania elections. The Republican governor (Tom Corbett) signed it into law.
It was all legal, prim and proper, enacted by the people thru their state representatives.
Then a mere few months before it was to take effect, an Obama feral judge stepped in and ruled it unconstitutional. All by himself, just like that. A hack judge in Washington DC was able to over rule the will of 11 million Pennsylvanians.
Now you know why many people no longer bother to vote. What’s the point.
Actually Nate Silver is pretty close to the truth based on his view of the polls.
Here us his position:
Hillary has only 1 state that that is in play that she cannot afford to lose without losing the election: NH.
Trump has 3: FL, NC and NV.
All 4 states are in play. Trump has to win all 4. Hillary needs to win just 1. So the Hillary 2/3 to 1/3 advantage is correct.
But of course if you don’t believe the states in play are limited to NH, NC, NV and NH (and I don’t) then his projection is way, way off.
We will know for sure in a bit over 48 hours.
You’ll spend all day replying instead of actually looking up the photo for yourself. Pathetic.
Eww! That’s Casey Anthony!
16 years a Freeper, and still don't get how this works?
You make the claim - you back it up, or shut up.
You can't prove it, so you keep running your mouth, which is what you were doing when you made the claim in the first place.
You already lost, and you know it, chump.
I do not count IA as a battleground. Trump has it in the bag.
Stop being lazy and a crybaby
Put up or shut up, boy.
She wasn’t convicted, but it was the result of a horrible prosecution team handling the case. I *rarely* make a stink about stuff like that, but I could see people taking it the wrong way ... It’s only my opinion, but I can see it being blown out of proportion.
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