Posted on 09/07/2016 2:07:02 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The highly accurate Emerson College Poll
Emerson College Polling University
finds Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in Deep Blue New England, but will be forced to defend New Jersey and Rhode Island. Among Independents, Mr. Trump leads Mrs. Clinton in Rhode Island (+20), Massachusetts (+8) and New Jersey (+4 points), while she holds the edge in Vermont (+22 points), Maine (+12), Connecticut (+9) and New Hampshire (+2).
As Figure 1 depicts, Mrs. Clinton’s lead over Mr. Trump ranges from a high of 21 points in Vermont (47% to 26%) to a low of just 3% in Rhode Island (44% to 41%), which is within the sample’s margin of error. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson is doing more damage to Mr. Trump than Mrs. Clinton, taking 14% of the vote in New Hampshire, 13% in Vermont, 12% in Maine and under 10% in the remaining four states. As explained below the table, the support for Gov. Johnson comes disproportionately from potential Republican voters, particularly those who supported Mr. Trump’s former rivals. Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 7% of the vote in Vermont and 4% or less in the remaining six states.
Worth noting, while he trails overall in the state, Mr. Trump leads Mrs. Clinton in Maine’s Second Congressional District by a margin of 41% to 36. Maine allocates it’s electoral votes based on the winner of each district, which if it holds, would make him the first Republican to take the 1 electoral vote from the state since the 1980s.
(CHART-AT-LINK)
Mrs. Clinton’s advantage is significantly smaller in several of the deep blue states polled juxtaposed to President Barack Obama’s state-level margins of victory in the 2012 general election. In Massachusetts, former Gov. Mitt Romney’s home state, Mr. Obama won by 24 points. Now, Mrs. Clinton currently leads Mr. Trump by 17. In 2012, Mr. Obama won Vermont by 36%, but Mrs. Clinton only leads Trump by 21%.
She holds a scant 3-point advantage in Rhode Island, which Obama won by a whopping 28 points.
Once again, the polling data indicate that both candidates are having difficulty winning over the voters who supported their former rivals. In six of the states polled by Emerson College, between 60% and 65% of voters who supported Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders–less than two-thirds–have moved over to Mrs. Clinton. In Rhode Island, that percentage is only 50%. For Mr. Trump, in the six states, less than 50% of his former rivals’ voters combined are backing the party’s nominee, with Gov. Johnson drawing 25% or more in four of the states, including 33% in Vermont and 30% in New Hampshire.
Meanwhile, in the Granite State, incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte appears to be in some trouble, though she leads Democratic governor Maggie Hassan 48% to 46%, which is well within the margin of error. However, Gov. Hassan is viewed more favorably than Sen. Ayotte, enjoying a 52% to 41% (+11) favorable/unfavorable rating juxtaposed to 44% to 48% (-4) for the Republican.
In Vermont, Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy is leading Republican challenger Scott Milne, 57% to 34%. Sen. Leahy, who was first elected to the Senate in 1974, is still rather popular with voters. His favorable/unfavorable rating is well above water 64% to 28% (+36). Mr. Milne’s numbers are a less impressive 29% to 33% (-4), even though 34% of voters undecided about him.
In Connecticut, incumbent Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal, who won reelection in 2010 during a tough bid after lying about his military record, still holds a significant lead over Republican state representative Dan Carter, 54% to 33%. Nearly 6 out of 10 likely voters (57%) view Sen. Blumenthal favorably and 34% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Voters are not familiar with Mr. Carter and his favorable/unfavorable rating is underwater 9% to 18%, with 42% undecided about him and 30% who have never heard of him.
Read Full Results: ECPS_final press release and toplines_ Northeast Polls_9.7 v3a
The Caller IDs for the seven state polls are as follows: •The Emerson College New Jersey poll was conducted September 2-5. The sample consisted of 800 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, and congressional district. •The Maine poll was conducted September 2-5. The sample consisted of 800 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age, gender and congressional district. •The Rhode Island poll was conducted September 2-5. The sample consisted of 800 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age, gender and congressional district. •The New Hampshire poll was conducted September 3-5. The sample consisted of 600 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age and gender. •The Connecticut poll was conducted September 2-5. The sample consisted of 1,000 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age and gender. •The Vermont poll was conducted September 2-5. The sample consisted of 600 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age and gender. •The Massachusetts poll was conducted September 3-5. The sample consisted of 500 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age, gender and congressional district.
It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.
If Trump wins NJ we are going to have a massive landslide for Trump.
I take that it must be very bad for Hellary. My eyes say so too.
No, it’s not just of independents—only that one sentence was about the results among independents. In this poll, for example, Trump leads Clinton by 20% with independents in Rhode Island, but is behind by 3% overall in the state.
Politics1 mentioned this poll with Clinton up only 3 in RI, a smaller lead than any other state in this poll (New England and NJ).
Probably an outlier. Hard to imagine RI being the most favorable of New England states.
It also has her up only 4 in NJ which is more realistic but still incredible. Governor Chubs has 64% disapproval so he’s not helping.
The rest of the results
Clinton up by 5 in NH. Up 15 in CT, up 17 in MA, up 21 in VT,
Ayotte up 2 in the NH Senate race.
Best bit is this, while Clinton is up 9 in Maine overall (2 e votes) and up 22 in CD-1 Trump up 5 in Maine’s CD-2. An earlier poll also had him ahead there. It’s only 1 e vote but in a close election...
Best Election season ever!
Tied right now IMO but Trump has the better opportunities.
I think it’ll come down to Trump solidifying the Republican and disaffected voters versus Obama getting out the ‘black’ vote for Hillary.
Nice to see the libs moaning about the polls now instead of Freepers.
I don’t think he’ll win NJ. I looked up Real Clear Politics results for the 2012 Election, and Obama won by 17 points, which is a larger amount than the polls predicted.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nj/new_jersey_romney_vs_obama-1912.html
A lot of weird and inconsistent internals in the northeast Emerson polls.
Oh boy. The “Maine CD-2” FR blather...again.
Maine CD-2 blather = Old Country Buffet Maine CD-2 blather = Old Country Buffet Maine CD-2 blather = Old Country Buffet Maine CD-2 blather = Old Country Buffet Maine CD-2 blather = Old Country Buffet Maine CD-2 blather = Old Country Buffet Maine CD-2 blather = Old Country Buffet Maine CD-2 blather = Old Country Buffet Maine CD-2 blather = Old Country Buffet
Is there an understanding? Is there?
Now RI being in play? That’s worth keystrokes and electricity. Catholics like Trump? Hmmm... Then for sure ST. RAFAEL LOSE would BE WINNING THE STATE, RIGHT?!?! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“Vote Cruz” “Vote Cruz” “Vote Cruz” “Vote Cruz” “Vote Cruz” “Vote Cruz” “Vote Cruz” “Vote Cruz” “Vote Cruz” “Vote Cruz” “Vote Cruz” “Vote Cruz”
Come election night, this is awaits >>ALL<< enemies of The Donald:
I have trump at 265. the 4 EV in NH and 1 in Maine will put him at 270.
where would we stand with the House if we get a 269-269 tie?
the DC 3 created an even number of EVs for the first time.
Exactly!
That really isn't relevant. Obama generated quite a bit of excitement in the inner cities, Hillary does not. Additionally the mood on Obama has soured in the Black community further depressing turnout.
If the Presidential election is close the House (and almost certainly at least 26 delegations, currently we have 32) is certain to remain Republican. I would expect a party line vote.
If it’s a tie or 270-268 though a single faithless elector would give them a third choice, it’s between the top 3 for President (if 2 other candidates got 1 vote each I guess they’d have to include both?). A rouge GOP elector could vote for say, Bush, and the House would have Bush to choose from and potential chaos.
If the House deadlocks the VP-elect (chosen by the Senate from the top two candidates if none get a majority) would be acting President for as long as it took the House or the entire term if necessary. Under such a scenario the midterm elections would have the potential to choose the President.
currently we have 32? a bunch are split, like NH ME
DEM has so few ...
What is your personal assessment? Poll right or wrong?
Thanks
The Second Congressional District in Maine is most of the state.
It is the largest congressional district, in area, east of the Mississippi River.
This mostly rural area is Second Amendment country, so I would say Trump has an excellent chance of winning this part of Maine.
Nebraska, with three congressional districts, is the only other state that divides it’s electoral votes.
I’m hoping Trump can carry the entire state of Maine, but I just don’t know. Trump has changed the electoral map this election cycle, so anything is possible.
I believe Trump will take this congressional district; if Trump does that, he gets one electoral vote if Clinton wins the first congressional district and the overall statewide vote (she would get three electoral votes in this scenario).
Maine has a total of (just) four electoral votes.
Thank you
32 R
15 D
3 Tied (NH, ME, NJ)
IA and NV are, ironically given the POTUS polling in those states, very vulnerable to flipping from R to a tie or D but I’m not terribly worried about losing any others, Colorado is 4-3 with 1 GOP seat heavily contested but certainly not 5 others, if that happens Hillary won’t need the House to elect her.
I counted only 2 split delegations (NH, ME: quick visual scan, could be wrong), but this year’s elections could produce more....or fewer.
Judging by the number of Trump lawn signs vs. the number of Hillary lawn signs here Trump takes NJ overwhelmingly.
At a recent outdoor event with vendors Trump signs were going for $10.00, Hillary signs were free. The Trump stand had a mob around it, at least when I saw it.
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