I don’t think he’ll win NJ. I looked up Real Clear Politics results for the 2012 Election, and Obama won by 17 points, which is a larger amount than the polls predicted.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nj/new_jersey_romney_vs_obama-1912.html
That really isn't relevant. Obama generated quite a bit of excitement in the inner cities, Hillary does not. Additionally the mood on Obama has soured in the Black community further depressing turnout.