Posted on 06/14/2016 6:36:29 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential race has narrowed since late last week, according to the results of the first Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted since the Orlando shooting rampage on Sunday.
Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the Nov. 8 election, has blamed Democratic policies for the worst mass shooting in U.S. history and doubled-down on his pledge to ban Muslim immigration, while Clinton has warned against demonizing Muslim-Americans.
The poll, conducted from Friday to Tuesday, showed Clinton with an 11.6-point lead - 44.6 percent to 33.0 percent - over Trump, down from the 13-point lead she had in the five days that ended Saturday....
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
See post #20 as it is further elucidation of post #18. :-)
Fantasy
Clinton is ahead of Trump nationally. Pray to God that He allows us the grace to avoid her as President, reduce government corruption, and improve the moral life in the country.
Your right
That is the Dem propaganda media strategy .
Peddle non stop lie and spin
From the website. It is an online poll.
“The online poll included 1,063 likely voters and had a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of about 3.5 percentage points.”
Supposedly she was up 13 almost 14
Not that I believe that
Lord
Another Online
propaganda Poll
Pure Garbage but the usual Dem media Prop.
It’s way too early to panic over a poll with the election five months out and most of these pollsters not developing their LV screens yet.
Reuters and Bloomberg are clear outliers in what really is probably a Hillary! +3-7 point race right now. Reuters’ methodology is garbage.
Seltzer is the “Gold Standard” in Iowa, but she has methodology issues nationally. I think the real state of the race has a 3-7 point Hillary! lead right now.
Honestly, there’s nothing to be concerned about until Labor Day. These polls are mainly RV polls, not LV polls as these pollsters haven’t decided on what the proper LV screen is.
Self-identified Party Affiliation historically is as follows since 2004 per aggregate exit polling.
2004 (Bush 2nd Term) Even D 37 R 37 I 26
2006 (Congress Bush 6yr) D+2 D 38 R 36 I 26
2008 (Obama 1st term) D+7 D 39 R 32 I 29
2010 (Congress Obama 2 yr) Even D 35 R 35 I 29
2012 (Obama 2nd term) D+6 D 38 R 32 I 29
2014 (Congress Obama 6 yr) R+1 D 35 R 36 I 28
Self-identify D+8 is likely overstated. Rasmussen’s numbers trended Republican.
Trump was ahead in IA in almost every poll (lost); Cankles was up 21 in MI (lost big); Cruz was supposedly very close in IN; none of them had Trump’s margin in NH or NY.
SurveyUSA actually quit polling for a while because it’s polls were do far off.
This cycle there hasn’t been one poll that got IA, NH, and SC all correct.
They all ignore that the blood they smell in the water is because of those who do what he says they're doing - appeasing the bad guys to the detriment of the terrorists.
Cruz still has a chance to do the right thing but I fear his own pride/ego/sense of spite have closed that door.
The last Iowa polls, had Trump +1 with margin of error of 5, so they weren't far off even though it is much harder to poll a caucus.
Cruz wasn't close in the polls in Indiana which were all showing Trump up big. The last poll taken (Gravis) had the margin exactly right +17%.
New Hampshire polls (RCP average)) had Trump up 17, he ended up up 19. Pretty close. Polls in New York were +30, he ended up + 35. Polls in South Carolina were +13, he ended up +10.
So it just isn't true polls have been wildly unpredictive on the Republican side, but you are right that there have been polls on Dem side (like Michigan) that were shockingly off. Maybe that unpredictability will affect presidential polling. If people are too embarrassed to admit they like Trump it could be hurting his numbers, but I wouldn't count on it.
Er, no. Your precious RCP had Trump +4.7 in IA, when Cruz won by 3.3, or an error of 8 points.
Oklahoma RCP average was Trump 11.4, Cruz won by 6.1, a shocking 17.5 error. Yeah, that’s accurate.
Louisiana, RCP average was Trump 15.6, final was Trump 3.6, or an error of 12.
These are major, major errors. No, they are not accurage, and they have been wrong on both sides in both directions.
As I recall reading yesterday, Rasmussen had Obama D 41.4% in October 2008 that favored 2.4% over the exit poll here.
Notice the trend, Trump underperforming in every poll you cited?
Nope.
Notice the trend: wrong, wrong, wrong. Trump overperformed in the entire NE. He overperformed in MI, where Kasich was to challenge. Try again.
Yes, Clinton is ahead nationally, by four to seven points. Hopefully it is stabilizing and not going up more, but everyone should pray to God without ceasing. This false bravado is not going to do it.
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