Posted on 06/08/2016 7:44:07 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
f Donald Trump's presidential campaign were functional, this would be Economy Week for Team Trump. The presumptive Republican presidential nominee and his surrogates would be wielding the disappointing May jobs report as a cudgel to bash the lackluster "Obama-Clinton" recovery. After all, polls say jobs and the economy remain voters' biggest concern. And it's an issue in which Trump has a big lead over Clinton. A new Gallup poll gives the famed businessman a 10-point edge on "the economy" and a seven-point lead on "employment and jobs."
But Trump isn't talking about the economy. Instead, he's attacking the Mexican heritage of the Trump University lawsuit judge, speculating on the potential bias of Muslim judges, and instructing his surrogates to attack any and all critics as racists.
Trump seems unable to see it, but a lousy economy remains the greatest threat to Clinton's White House hopes, and thus the greatest aid for Trump's presidential bid. The anemic recovery hardly seems a tailwind for Clinton's campaign. A year ago, Yale economist Ray Fair, well known for using the economy to predict elections, said continued sluggish-though-improving GDP growth implied "a fairly large loss for the Democrats."
Since then, the economy hasn't picked up. Fair has noted that the economy, "in terms of the growth rate of GDP, is clearly not a plus for the Democrats in 2016. This could, of course, be trumped by other factors." Ah yes, economist humor. But he's right. Non-economic factors matter, too like if one major candidate suffers from maniacal narcissism and a proclivity to utter bigoted comments. Millions upon millions of voters may ultimately decide Trump is simply unfit for office even if real disposable income and the labor force participation rate stay steady but meh.
But what if the economy doesn't stay in this same-old, same-old mode? What if is worsens sharply?
That's why Team Clinton should pay close attention to that jobs report, even if Trump isn't. Job growth has slowed sharply, a possible harbinger of deeper economic trouble. Not only did the jobs report show a meager 38,000 net jobs created last month, but totals for March and April were also revised considerably lower. Over the past three months, then, job gains have averaged 116,000 per month. That's about half the average monthly gain since 2010. Barclays recently explained why this is worrisome: Essentially, this sort of molasses-slow job growth signals "that risks of a near- to medium-term recession have risen."
That's essentially the same conclusion from JPMorgan's economic team. JPMorgan's model doesn't look at job growth, but other factors such as the unemployment rate, auto sales, and consumer sentiment. And based on those variables and others, the bank sees a 36 percent chance of a recession within a year, the highest so far during the seven-year-old expansion.
The risk of recession is increasing, Still, it's not exactly likely between now and Election Day.
But here's the thing none of these models factor in: the impact of Trump himself. He could become his very own October Surprise through what I have termed the Trump Doom Loop the negative feedback effects among markets, politics, and the U.S. economy. The better Trump does in the polls, the more people around the world will worry, and the worse it will be for economic confidence... and thus the better Trump does in the polls.
For instance, in a recent op-ed, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers predicted Trump's tax and trade policies would cause "a protracted recession to begin within 18 months" of his election. If the polls stay close, and if Summers' opinion is widely shared, the Trump Doom Loop could begin. People will worry about the real possibility of President Trump. The economy will tank because of that plummeting confidence and rising uncertainty. And Trump will (falsely, but effectively) point to the tanking economy as a failure of the Democrats.
Desperate voters, already pessimistic about the future, might be willing to gamble on Trump in that case despite qualms about his character, or lack of it.
If there is another Santa Barbara-style terrorist attack—or worse—than Donald Trump will be our next President!!!!
If Hillary Clinton is elected President, the Clinton Foundation will generate more money than the Federal Reserve.
Everybody knows they’ll just cook the books and twist the numbers to show that we’re not in a recession even though we are.
BTW, he will become the 45th President of the United States, because the economy is not going to have any bright spots at anytime between now and the election.
I’d disagree. Probably since 2005, we’ve been screwed. Hurricane Katrina wrecked the entire economy and we haven’t fully recovered since. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs is what we need.
America is in a recession. Has been since 2008. There has never been an 0bama recovery.
Important point. Trump should pay close attention to it. It's how he can play chess with the avalanche of anti-Trump world leaders and globalists.
“If America falls into recession....”
WRONG!
corrected:
“If America rises into recession....”
(the rest I did not read, not after such a bozo propaganda attempt in the first 3 words)
IF??? Where have these leftards been?
The economy toasted a while back, about 7 years. It is the news that will be released and harped upon via the lying media upon his departure.
Sumbritches need to be held accountable, period.
America is already in a recession, dumbass.
Here is an article about it:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-bearish-george-soros-is-trading-again-1465429163
He doesn’t sound like he’s currently propping up anything.
Although the article does correctly say, he’s a big supporter of Hillary and Democrats.
They’ve been propping up the stock market by printing money and buying stocks.
He's keeping his finger on that pulse - snorted at the last Jobs-report and mentioned the economy/unemployment. His platform on trade and bringing manufacturing back to America are still there.
If he overcooks it now and they manage to cook the books all the way til the election, putting doubt in the working classes' mind, it might not be so effective. I'd say he has the right grip on it.
We need to put into place both major income tax reform and business regulatory reform to make encourage savings and capital investment staying in the USA and provide the basis for a true, broad-based economic recovery. And start the process--phased in over a decade--to turn the US Dollar from a fiat currency to one backed by a mix of metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper and nickel).
Can’t be out of money if one has checks in the checkbook, or in this case, ink and paper.
America is already in recession. As Gingrich has said, the economy has created 1 job for 8,000 people. I live in a town of 60,000. That means 8 jobs were created for the entire town.
That is a catastrophic recession.
If? We are still contracting deeper into a depression. There has been no expansion.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.